Coronavirus: Lab Leak Sarcasm

Recently, the Lab Leak hypothesis has gained steam in the United States. Let's look at what the WHO said about the likelihood of the various possible pathways:

1. Direct Zoonotic Transmission (host to human): possible to likely

2. Introduction Through Intermediate Host Followed By Zoonotic Transmission: likely to very likely

3. Introduction Through The Cold/Food Chain: possible

4. Introduction Through A Laboratory Incident: extremely unlikely

Okay, why is the media right now being so racist by increasing the coverage of the lab leak hypothesis. Why is Facebook also allowing this racist hypothesis to spread across the globe? Doesn't this all go against what the WHO is saying above -- that a Laboratory Incident is highly unlikely and therefore this type of conspiracy theory shouldn't be allowed in polite conversation?

Coronavirus: Sweden in 2021

This is my first Sweden and COVID-19 look in 2021. The last time I looked at Sweden was in December 2021. At that time, Sweden's healthcare system was near capacity due to COVID-19. The government was also looking into taking a tougher approach on restrictions. Per Worldometer, new cases have been at elevated levels basically from November until today; however, it does look like new cases are on a distinct downward trend. Though daily cases have been elevated, deaths peaked in December/January and have seen a significant decline since that point -- though there is a spike on May 21st, which might be a clerical catch-up.

What is some of the news reports coming out of Sweden?

COVID-19 High Level Situation

The Guardian (Apr 13) reported:

Sweden has reported Europe’s highest number of new coronavirus infections per head over the past week and has more patients in intensive care than at any time since the pandemic’s first wave.

Coronavirus: vaccination doesn't eliminate the risk of getting COVID-19

We know that getting vaccinated does not totally eliminate the possibility of getting COVID-19. I think we're getting some good evidence on just how effective the vaccines are in real world case studies versus clinical trials. Unfortunately, many of these real world case studies are occurring in nursing homes. 

The New York Times (Apr 21) has an April example from Kentucky:

An unvaccinated health care worker set off a Covid-19 outbreak at a nursing home in Kentucky where the vast majority of residents had been vaccinated, leading to dozens of infections, including 22 cases among residents and employees who were already fully vaccinated, a new study reported Wednesday.

Most of those who were infected with the coronavirus despite being vaccinated did not develop symptoms or require hospitalization, but one vaccinated individual, who was a resident of the nursing home, died, according to the study released by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Oil: OPEC + and Goldman Sachs Forecast Demand Increases

Oil demand is going to pick up dramatically this year according to OPEC + and Goldman Sachs. Their forecasts must not think that the current COVID-19 outbreaks in India and Brazil will put much of a damper on economic growth or that any potential variants that come out from these regions will reduce the effectiveness of current vaccines. Reuters (Apr 28) has this to say:

In a report by OPEC+ experts earlier in the week, the group forecast global oil demand in 2021 would grow by 6 million barrels per day, after demand plunged by 9.5 million bpd last year amid the pandemic.

U.S. bank Goldman Sachs said it expected the biggest jump in oil demand in history at 5.2 million bpd over the next six months, as vaccination campaigns accelerate in Europe and travel demand climbs. 

Coronavirus: Argentina Faces a Third Wave

Back in March, I took a look into how COVID-19 was impacting Brazil. At the time, I was seeing spikes starting to appear to Chile, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay. At the time, I didn't notice an upwards trend in Argentina. If I had waited a couple weeks or so, I would have started to notice an upward trend. Argentina is definitely seeing a third wave.

Argentina is a country that took immediate action at the beginning of the pandemic. Reuters (Apr 10, 2020) reported back then the following:

Argentina will extend until April 27 the lockdown it imposed last month to control the spread of the coronavirus, President Alberto Fernandez said in a televised address on Friday, adding that the measure would be applied only in major cities . . . The lockdown, which started on March 20, has slowed the spread of the virus and remains the best way of controlling the pandemic, he added.

At that time, Argentina only had 1,975 confirmed cases, but the vast majority of countries can only contain the virus for so long. Per Worldometer, Argentina is now closing into 3.5 million cases. This third wave is perhaps heightened by the fact that the country has provided at least one dose to less than 20% of their population. They currently have the 11th most cases (per Worldometer), but they likely will push up this unfortunate ranking over the next couple months as their vaccination program is going slowly.

Coronavirus: Brazil and Children's Deaths

For the longest time, I have heard that COVID-19 rarely results in the death of a child. Yet, I keep hearing stories about childing dying from COVID-19. For awhile, I'd read about random unfortunate deaths happening in Florida where as of August 2020 the total was 8 children. Fast forward from that date in August to now and health experts are still saying that deaths are rare and it is okay to open schools. 

The BBC (Apr 14) recently had this article up about Brazil and children dying from COVID-19, which seems to me to contradict that narrative:

Between February 2020 and 15 March 2021, Covid-19 killed at least 852 of Brazil's children up to the age of nine, including 518 babies under one year old, according to figures from the Brazilian Ministry of Health. But Dr Marinho estimates that more than twice this number of children died of Covid. A serious problem of underreporting due to lack of Covid testing is bringing the numbers down, she says.

Dr Marinho calculated the excess of deaths by unspecified acute respiratory syndrome during the pandemic, and found that there were 10 times more deaths by unexplained respiratory syndrome than in previous years. By adding these numbers, she estimates that the virus in fact killed 2,060 children under nine years old, including 1,302 babies.

Coronavirus: is there a possibility Africa will become the next India?

It is known that India is dealing with a serious second wave. This occurred even though the country took decisive action all the way back in March 2020 where videos of police beating people emerged. If India is seeing an explosion of cases, is it possible that Africa will see a similar wave soon? One argument made for why Africa hasn't seen a significant wave is that maybe they did see one, but due to having a population with an average age of just 19.7, perhaps the virus wasn't sending people to the hospital in any significant manner. We should note; however, that India's average age is 26.8. Yes, 7 years older, but still a very young population. Is a -- for most of the continent -- first wave about to occur on the continent?

One thing I did notice about cases in Africa is that per Worldometer, every country with over 200,000 (5 countries) has access to the open seas -- to be technical, Ethiopia doesn't have access to the open seas, but they do use Djibouti. Will the virus slowly spread inwards? Anyways, what is happening currently in India is causing concern in Africa.

Current Concerns

Guardian (May 1):

“What is happening in India cannot be ignored by our continent,” John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said last week. “We do not have enough healthcare workers, we do not have enough oxygen … We cannot and should not find ourselves in [India’s] scenario because of the very fragile nature of our health systems.”

. . . According to latest World Bank figures, there are almost four times more doctors per inhabitant in India than across Africa. 

Oil: No Shale Production Rebound for Awhile?

Is it possible that US shale is going to see flat production for awhile? Well, OPEC + and the EIA (U.S. Energy Information Administration) believe so. Reuters (Feb 21) reports this projection from OPEC +:

OPEC this month cut its 2021 forecast for U.S. tight crude, another term for shale, and expects production to decline by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 7.16 million bpd.

. . . While some U.S. energy firms have increased drilling, production is expected to remain under pressure as companies cut spending to reduce debt and boost shareholder returns. Shale producers are also wary that increased drilling would quickly be met by OPEC returning more oil to the market.

Coronavirus: Los Angeles Response, "Let's Party Part II"

Back in January, I mentioned how Los Angeles was in party mode even though California was seeing a significant second wave of COVID-19 cases. Los Angeles, this past weekend, just hit the yellow color tier which meant more restrictions were relaxed. I saw a news report of folks going out to eat at restaurants and looking very happy about the additional freedom. That isn't the only celebration that was going on across Los Angeles. The revised restrictions led to at least one huge party that I noticed via social media. Fox LA (May 9) happened to cover it:

The Los Angeles Police Department issued a citywide tactical alert Saturday night after a Cypress Park party swelled to 1,500 to 2,000 people.

Officers were called in to disperse the crowd. The party was held on Riverside Drive near the transition from the northbound Arroyo Seco Parkway (110) and the northbound Golden State (5) Freeway near the Los Angeles River.

Oil: Production at Oil Majors Slowing Sooner Than Anticipated?

In recent months, I've discussed European oil majors shifting away from oil production. I talked about BP here and then looked at Shell here. The IEA has warned that due to a lack of investments, we could see oil supplies slump by 9 mb/d by 2025. 

Now Rystad Energy (Feb 18) has some discussions on oil production by the majors: 

Rystad Energy forecasts that the majors’ net production will be around 17.5 million boepd in 2025 and peak at around 18 million boepd in 2028, based on our latest revisions. For context, our internal forecast in February 2020 – before the shockwaves from Covid-19 – stood at 19 million boepd for 2025 and 20 million boepd in 2028.

The article has a chart of the oil majors and their barrels of oil equivalent per day. It isn't in table form so it is hard to tell who is increasing or decreasing production over the years. However, based on prior posts I've done, Shell has already indicated that their oil production will decline by 1% to 2% a year. And BP is reducing their investments in oil significantly, so I suspect they are in decline, as well. From the chart, it definitely looks like ExxonMobil will continue to increase their production -- even out all the way to 2030.

Movie Review: Jezebel

Jezebel is about Julie Marsden (Bette Davis) who is engaged to Preston Dillard (Henry Fonda). She is a spoiled, wealthy young woman (perhaps a teenager), living in 1852 New Orleans. From the take of things, she is an orphan as she lives with her Aunt. She is spoiled, but also complex. She definitely has an adventurous side as her first appearance on screen is her riding a horse that will only obey her commands. She is late to her own party and has little regard for tradition. She walks into her own party in riding cloths while everyone else is dressed for a Southern party. And when it comes to Preston, she wants to make sure she has him around her finger. The two of them are supposed to go to a fitting for the Olympus Ball, but he is busy in a bank meeting. She walks right into the bank (which based on the looks of the customers is taboo) and demands that Preston come and talk to her. He does, but tells her that he simply can't go with her. In a bit of fury, she goes to the fitting and instead of buying the traditional white dress, she goes with a red dress. 

Her family as well as Preston are shocked that she wants to wear a red dress to the Olympus Ball, but she insists that she wishes to go in red. When they arrive at the ballroom, the crowd immediately rejects the couple. When on the dance floor, they are soon left alone as the rest of the couples move to the side. Julie sees that she's made a serious blunder and begs Preston to take her home, but he refuses, figuring -- I suppose -- that this is a way to teach Julie to be less spoiled. The Olympus Ball is more than just a social blunder, it also ends the engagement. 

Preston moves to the North (business related to the bank) and Julie remains secluded in her home, avoiding all contact. The movie shifts to 1853 and there is the start of a Yellow Fever outbreak. Julie and her aunt move to Halcyon Plantation, which seems to be her property via her deceased parents. Preston also returns to the city and a homecoming party is set at Halcyon Planation. A group of friends show up, including Buck Cantrell (George Brent) who is a rejected suiter of Julie's. The reason for the party goes beyond a homecoming. It is meant as a way for Julie to win back Preston's heart. Unknown to her, Preston got married and he brings his wife, Amy (Margaret Lindsay) to the party. 

Coronavirus: Pakistan stuck between India and Iran

Pakistan has the unfortunate situation of sharing borders with two countries that are going through significant COVID-19 waves right now: India and Iran. Per Worldometer, Pakistan is now suffering through what I believe would be considered a third wave. What are some of the reports about what is occurring in Pakistan? Is India or Iran potentially responsible for this wave of infections?

The Telegraph (Apr 27):

The country of around 220 million is currently recording an average of around 5,500 cases and 130 deaths per day – similar levels to the peak of the first wave seen last June. A lack of testing means those official figures are thought to be a significant undercount.

The government has admitted that the number of patients needing oxygen is far higher than it was last summer.

. . . Travel from India has been banned, including the closure of the land border at Wagah, and tensions between the neighbours mean there are no direct flights. Yet while officials who have seen sequencing data say there is no sign in Pakistan yet of the “double mutant” variant found in India, the easily transmissible UK variant has taken widespread hold.