Coronavirus: India

The first coronavirus cases popped up in India in late January and February via tourists from China and Italy. In an attempt to avoid the spread of the virus, the government shut down the economy that impacted 140 million migrant laborers. The world got to view videos of police beating lockdown offenders or making them do physical exercises. We also saw photos of crowded railway stations.

All those efforts may have just delayed the inevitable. Currently, per Worldometer, India has by far the most official cases in Asia. I say official as who knows how many cases really hit China. The coronavirus is now spreading across Mumbai (18.4 million) and New Delhi (21.8 million). What does the news have to say about these two cities?


Mumbai

CNN (Jun 11) reports:

Mumbai alone has reported more than 50,000 cases -- nearly a fifth of India's total, and more than the Chinese city of Wuhan, ground zero for the pandemic. Maharashtra state, home to Mumbai, has confirmed more cases than the whole of China.

. . . Those in the upper middle class can afford to live in apartments that offer a little more space and opportunity for social distancing -- but the city's daily life and businesses are so intertwined that even the wealthy can't escape the virus.

Many housekeepers, drivers, and household staff live in Mumbai's crowded slums, which were hit hard by the outbreak -- meaning they sometimes carried the virus to their places of employment, said Sayli Udas-Mankikar, senior fellow at ORF (Observer Research Foundation) Mumbai.

Among India's biggest cities, Mumbai's slums pose a unique health threat. Up to 60% of the city's population live cheek by jowl in informal housing or slums, where there is little running water or sanitation, said Udas-Mankikar.

NPR (Jun 8) reported:

Malls and religious sites remain closed in the commercial capital but some stores are allowed to do business on alternate days. Public buses are operating but Mumbai's suburban trains which ferry millions of commuters each day are still closed.

Despite rising infections, Mumbai residents thronged Marine Drive, the city's popular seaside promenade, on Sunday.

New Delhi

Foreign Policy (Jun 11) reported:

But now a growing number of government officials admit things will get much worse, especially in New Delhi, which is fast becoming one of the main coronavirus hot spots in South Asia. Total cases in Delhi are doubling every 12 days—much faster than the current national average of 22. On Tuesday, Deputy Chief Minister Manish Sisodia told reporters that the city-state could have as many as 550,000 coronavirus cases by the end of July. He added that the capital would need 80,000 hospital beds at that point—it has only 9,000 today. Sisodia’s words come as reports continue to emerge of patients being turned away from hospitals in Delhi and in Mumbai. 

This New Delhi forecast of cases is something to keep an eye on. Will the capital run out of beds in the next 6 weeks? Of course, just like New York City, added hospital beds will be built in various large buildings so I doubt they'll run out of beds if they properly prepare for the surge. Reuters reports there are 29,000 cases in Delhi. So the forecast from the Deputy Chief Minister is that cases will continue to double every 12 days. Since restrictions are being lifted in India, perhaps this forecast will be accurate.

And here's another one of my don't believe the numbers reports. From Medical Express:

But data in Delhi is understating the true scale of the outbreak, said Jai Prakash, standing committee head of the North Delhi Municipal Corporation, one of the three sub-districts that make up the capital.

Citing data from the city's busy crematoriums and cemeteries, Prakash said Thursday that just over 2,000 people have died from the virus across the city—almost twice the official toll.