Coronavirus: Drop in US Life Expectancy

One knew that a story about a decline in US life expectancy due to COVID-19 would eventually come out. NPR (Jul 21) reports:

Life expectancy in the United States declined by a year and a half in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which says the coronavirus is largely to blame.

COVID-19 contributed to 74% of the decline in life expectancy from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.

Since a significant percentage of deaths also occurred in 2021, one would have to assume that there won't be a jump back up to 78.8 years in 2021.

Movie Review: To Live and Die in L.A.

To Live and Die in L.A. primarily occurs over a 42 day time period in Los Angeles. The movie starts off with the United States Secret Service protecting the president in Los Angeles. One of those agents, Richard Chance, notices a suspicious individual in a hotel. He chases after him and eventually tracks him down to the rooftop of the hotel. The individual is a suicide bomber, explosives wrapped around his chest. Also, climbing up to the rooftop from the floor below is Richard Chance's boss, Jimmy Hart. Jimmy Hart grabs the terrorist from behind and throws him off the roof. 

After that scene, we're introduced to Rick Masters who is a counterfeiter. He is in a warehouse, printing up fake $20 bills. We're introduced to a rather complex process and see how the bills are created from start to finish: from the drawing up of the bills to tossing the bills into a dryer to create a look of used bills.

We learn that Jimmy is just three days away from retirement, but has one last job to do. Another role of the Secret Service is to track down counterfeiting operations. He heads to the desert to track down Rick Masters. Somehow the Secret Service has figured out where the warehouse is. When he gets to the warehouse, he is shot dead. 

A few days later, Richard and team head to the warehouse and find Jimmy's body, dumped into a garbage container. All the equipment has already been moved out except for the dryer (which honestly seems odd). Richard than takes over as lead investigator to track down Rick Masters. He is given a new partner named John Vukovich.  

Coronavirus: Getting Better at Airborne Transmission?

Is the coronavirus getting better at airborne transmission? I'm not sure the New York Times via Yahoo (Oct 2) came across anything new here:

Newer variants of the coronavirus such as alpha and delta are highly contagious, infecting far more people than the original virus. Two new studies offer a possible explanation: The virus is evolving to spread more efficiently through air.

I don't know, how else would the new variants spread so rapidly? I think we've already ruled out the fact that the virus spreads efficiently via surfaces. What the article does indicate is that people should be shifting to N95 masks. Of course, the article doesn't state that explicitly, but what exactly is considered more protective than a surgical mask?

Even loose-fitting cloth and surgical masks block about half of the fine aerosols containing virus, according to the study of people infected with variants, published this month in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

Still, at least in some crowded spaces, people may want to consider switching to more protective masks, said Don Milton, an aerosol expert at the University of Maryland who led the research.

Coronavirus: Long Term Symptoms Equal Future Disability Expenses?

The long term symptoms related to COVID-19 have been well researched: ranging from brain fog to lung problems. Could we face a future where these long term symptoms result in much higher health expenses in the future?

Scientific American (July 6) addresses a concern that millions of Americans could face permanent disability:

In addition to the personal suffering, long-term disability comes with a staggering price tag—including increased health care costs; reduction or loss of employment; and economic strain on worker’s compensation and disability support programs. It’s been estimated that as much as 30 percent of the COVID health burden could arise from COVID-induced disability. As physician and University of Massachusetts medical professor Steven Martin recently told NPR, “If we end up with a million people with ongoing symptoms that are debilitating, that is a tremendous burden for each of these individuals, but also for our health care system and our society.”

The article states that we need to consider the following:

1. We must research disability due to long COVID.

2. We need clinics to deal with those suffering from long COVID.

3. We need to look into worker's compensation programs.

4. Federal disability programs.

In terms of worker's compensation, here in California we have SDI (State Disability Insurance). The 2021 SDI rate is 1.2% up to a wage of $128,298. Per Wikipedia, since 2002, the SDI rate has increased from 0.9% to 1.2% while eligible wages have increased from $46,327 to $128,298. As one can see, it just goes up and up and up -- both on a tax and income level. Both those numbers are likely to continue to increase if long COVID-19 becomes a serious problem for the state. (As a side note, I use 2002, because Wikipedia mentions that this is when the Paid Family Leave program was put in place to cover individuals who take time off work to care for seriously ill family members or to bond with a child. Considering how much both the tax rate and eligible wages have increased, it does make one think that there is some abuse going on here.)

Also, if the worst case scenario plays out, might an investor want to invest in retirement / nursing care REITS (I do own some investments -- to be transparent)?  

Oil: Crisis Coming in 2022?

OilPrice (Jun 17) looked at the lack of investment and how that might impact future oil supply. This lack of investment has been in dramatic decline since 2014. The OilPrice article looked specifically at shale and how even if there is a rush to investment more in shale, it might take time for oil production to come back to previous levels:

Thanks to capital restraint, billions of dollars of equipment have been written down and scrapped. Employees have found new careers, and are reluctant to return given the turmoil in the industry. But, even if we could scramble that much hardware and talent to meet the moment, it wouldn't matter.

How lacking is oil investments?

In fact, an article carried in the Wall Street Journal noted that “Planned investment in oil supply globally falls about $600 billion short of what will be needed to meet projected demand by 2030, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Christyan Malek. 

API (Feb 24) looks into how we could have a crisis as soon as 2022.

First: global oil production in existing fields decline between 4% - 7% based on level of investments in those fields.