Libya: Growing International Warzone?

There has long been foreign powers involved in Libya, but are foreign military involvement about to increase dramatically?

Via a news site called AMN, I read the following:

The spokesperson for the Libyan National Army (LNA), Major General Ahmed Al-Mismari, said on Friday December 27, that the LNA is only a few hundred meters away from the main neighborhoods of Tripoli.

. . .  He stressed that “the Libyan National Army took control of strategic areas along the airport road in Tripoli,” noting that “dozens of bodies of militia were found along the road.”

In mid-December the LNA stated that they planned to take Tripoli. The battle between the LNA and the GNA (Government of National Accord - in Tripoli) had been in a long standstill over Tripoli. This new push appears to be moving forward -- though at still a slow pace as the LNA has still not controlled the "main neighborhoods of Tripoli."

Shale Oil: 2020 Forecasts

Shale estimates for year-over year changes in production for 2020 are coming in and there is a wide variance of thought. Bloomberg via MSN has the following:

What’s ticking folks off these days is how the International Energy Agency in Paris and the Energy Information Administration in Washington still predict robust U.S. production growth next year, despite the dire reality on the ground. The IEA expects an increase of 900,000 barrels a day, while the EIA forecasts 1 million, which would mean practically replicating this year’s expansion.

Those projections don’t jibe with the vibe in Texas, home to about half of U.S. crude output. Capital-hungry producers are being starved of funding, stocks have plunged and there’s been zero appetite for public offerings, making the downturn potentially more enduring than previous price-related busts. 

US Supreme Court Refuses to Hear Case on Homelessness

The US Supreme court decided not to hear a case from Boise, Idaho that had an ordinance around homelessness. NPR has this short description:

The case stems from a lawsuit filed nearly a decade ago. A handful of people sued the city of Boise for repeatedly ticketing them for violating an ordinance against sleeping outside. While Boise officials later amended it to prohibit citations when shelters are full, the 9th Circuit eventually determined the local law was unconstitutional . . . That means states across the 9th Circuit can no longer enforce similar statutes if they don't have enough shelter beds for homeless people sleeping outside.

Algeria: Abdelmadjid Tebboune is next President. But for how long?

Algeria held elections for president this past Thursday. Abdelmadjid Tebboune won the election with 58% of the vote. The BBC has the following:

Tens of thousands of people have taken to the streets of the Algerian capital, Algiers, in protest at the results of Thursday's presidential election. . . . Polling day itself was marred by protests and calls for people to boycott the election.

. . . "The vote is rigged. Your elections are of no concern to us and your president will not govern us," demonstrators chanted in central Algiers on Friday.

. . . Mr Tebboune rose from a long career as a civil servant to become prime minister in 2017 but lasted just seven months after falling out with influential businessmen. He also served as housing minister and information minister.

Libya: Decisive Battle for Tripoli?

The latest from Libya. From Japan Times:

Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar announced a “decisive battle” for the capital Tripoli on Thursday, eight months after he launched an offensive to wrest it from the unity government. “Zero hour has come for the broad and total assault expected by every free and honest Libyan,” he said in a speech aired by the pro-Haftar Al-Hadath channel.

When I read about Haftar making this claim, I was scratching my head. Why would he make such a bold claim when from everything I've read the battle for Tripoli has been stalled since it started back in April. One thought did come to mind on why he would make this bold claim. In my previous blog post on Libya I did link to two Reuters articles (here and here) that mentioned that oil fields under control of Haftar were temporarily loss to Tripoli and Chad mercenary forces. Is Haftar finally feeling pressure on his flanks and figures his best move is an attempt to get Tripoli to surrender?

 AP hints at another reason:

Hifter’s declaration of his most recent offensive came after the signing of a security arrangement and maritime deal between Sarraj’s government and Turkey last month. The maritime deal would give Turkey access to a Mediterranean Sea economic zone offshore from Libya. Cyprus, Egypt and Greece claim the accord violates international law.

Since Turkey has long sided with Tripoli, I'm not sure this would give Haftar the impetus to make such an announcement. Though, as the article goes on to say, this Turkey-Tripoli agreement does provide some Mediterranean intrigue that goes beyond these two countries. This also has implications for Greece, Cyprus and Egypt.

Haftar's declaration was just not words. The AP continues.

Just two days after rebel Libyan commander Khalifa Hifter declared a “final” and decisive battle for the capital Tripoli, heavy fighting raged for a 24-hour period between his troops and militias loosely allied with the internationally backed government based in the city, officials said Saturday.

. . . Hifter’s forces took control of the town of al-Tawghaar, just south of Tripoli, the LNA said. But Tripoli-based forces disputed that claim.

Now I tried to find al-Tawghaar on the map, but couldn't. I do know that in October, the LNA (Haftar) had made it to Aziziyah, which is 40 kilometers from Tripoli.

From al Jazeera, European nations want the fighting to end:

The leaders of France, Germany and Italy have urged all sides in the Libyan conflict to cease fighting, after renegade military chief Khalifa Haftar called on his forces to advance towards the centre of the capital, Tripoli. Following a European Union summit on Friday in Brussels, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Giuseppe Conte said stability in Libya "can only be achieved through a political solution" . . . Separately, Russia's foreign ministry on Friday called for dialogue between Libya's foreign warring factions. 

Since I do believe that both France and Russia has been helping Haftar, I'm not sure how seriously I should take those comments. However, they may be weighing Turkey's growing role in Libya. Of course, Turkey also has issues in Syria. Part of me really thinks that Russia encouraged Haftar to make this move.

Though I think Haftar is making a serious error in judgement as the battle in Tripoli is likely to be street by street and bloody, it does appear that there is an attempt to end the stalemate.

Pensions: The Coming Crisis Isn't Just in the United States

The LA Times has a couple articles up about pension issues across the globe. Here are some quotes from a Nov 24th article:

Tens of millions more pensioners and savers around the world are facing the same retirement insecurity, as plunging interest rates since the financial crisis wreak havoc on the funding of schemes. As average life expectancy increases, pensions have become a defining political issue in countries as diverse as Russia, Japan and Brazil.

. . . A common factor in this global pension upheaval has been suppressed bond yields. Bonds have historically provided a simple match for the cash flows needed to be paid out to the members of retirement schemes. But decades of declining bond yields have made it far harder for pension funds to buy an income for their members, pushing them more into equities and other riskier, untraded investments, such as real estate and private equity. 

Sweden: far right Sweden Democrats to become largest political party in 2022?

Could the Sweden Democrats become the largest party in Sweden come the next election - 2022? As a note, all the other parties would probably prefer not to align themselves with the Sweden Democrats (at least not at this point in time).

Reuters mention that the Sweden Democrats polled at 24.2%. This would make them the largest party. The Social Democrats, which has long been the largest party in Sweden, polled at 22.2%. In the 2018 vote, the Sweden Democrats came in at 17.5% while the Social Democrats got 28.3% of the vote. The poll was put out by a polling company called Demoskop.

I was able to track down a Sifo poll result that came out at the same time. The polling results are slightly different with the Social Democrats at 24.4% and the Sweden Democrats at 23.0%. I'm breaking this down in the alliances that I learned about when blogging about the 2018 results with some notes as the two alliances hit some snags. Currently, the Social Democrats lead a minority government.

Libya: Fighting for Control of Oil Fields

While the LNA (Libyan National Army - Eastern Libya) and the GNA (Government of National Accord (Tripoli) are fighting around Tripoli, there are some flank moves occurring against the LNA in southern Libya.

Reuters reported the following:

Forces based in eastern Libya said on Wednesday they had driven rival factions from the 70,000-barrel-per-day (bpd) El Feel oilfield after attacking the area with air strikes, leading to production being halted.

The eastern-based forces had counter-attacked after forces aligned to the internationally recognized government in Tripoli took control of the field earlier in the day. 

Libya: Washington calling Haftar

The Washington Post reports that the US via the State Department is asking the LNA (Libyan National Army) to stop their attack on Tripoli:

“The message to General Hifter was very clear, that we feel a military incursion into Tripoli would be disastrous right now, or ever,” said a senior administration official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to characterize the closed-door discussions.

. . . Germany is leading an effort to hold a political summit on Libya to breathe new life into a U.N. process.

. . . The official said the United States had asked Libyans to find ways to reduce the violence and had stressed to Hifter the “very negative potential” outcomes from Russian involvement.

. .  . Asked about reports of divisions between the State Department, which has voiced consistent support for the GNA, and the White House, which is seen as more open to Hifter, the official said: “I don’t see a Hifter solution; I don’t see a GNA solution; I see a Libyan solution.”

(Note: I've been using the spelling of Haftar while the Washington Post is using the spelling Hifter.)

What first came to my mind was why is the US suddenly interested again in what is happening in Libya? The last I heard about any Washington interaction with Haftar was back in April when I quoted the following in an older blog post: