Coronavirus: Sweden Rethinking

Sweden is a well followed case study when it comes to COVID-19. At the moment, per Worldometer, the country is definitely going through a significant second wave. Though in terms of daily cases, the second wave appears to be ebbing and daily deaths have plunged. That is a bit interesting as one would think that deaths would drop after cases dropped.

In my last blog post on the country, I mentioned that the country was putting in tighter restrictions that was focused on sports and concerts. The LA Times (Dec 10) had a recent article that takes another look at the country where tighter "proposals" were recommended:

The healthcare system is now operating close to capacity in many parts of the country. In greater Stockholm, where more than 2 million people live, intensive care units were at 99% of occupancy as of midweek.

. . . The alarming deterioration of the situation is forcing officials to rethink their light-touch approach, which has been the object of both envy and incredulity around the world. This week, the Swedish government proposed a measure to give authorities more sweeping powers to close down shops, restaurants, malls, gyms, banquet halls and other gathering places — a step it avoided taking until now.

. . . Then summer arrived, and despite packed beaches, restaurants and shops, the caseload plummeted.

Exactly why remains unclear. The Public Health Agency of Sweden contended that the drop was caused by increasing immunity, a claim disputed by many epidemiologists. Another theory attributed it to the Swedish habit of spending the annual midsummer vacation period in holiday cottages outside the cities.

. . . Even this week’s government proposal to grant authorities greater powers to shut down shops and meeting places would not, if approved, take effect until mid-March, and so would do little to blunt the winter surge many elsewhere are fearing.

A couple things from the article I found interesting:

1. These are "proposals." So they aren't rules that can be enforced yet. And even if they were, they wouldn't take place until mid-March. By March, does it even matter?

  

2. One of the reasons that Sweden's approach gained such a following was due to what happened during the summer. As the article indicates, the reason for what happened isn't totally clear. I would lean towards the fact that Swedes were off on vacation.

How is this second wave impacting Sweden's politics? I'm sure Swedes weren't thinking that a strong second wave would hit them. Now the reason I am thinking about the politics in Sweden, is because Sweden has a far right political group called the Sweden Democrats who poll rather well in the country. Sweden has two coalitions and both would prefer not to work with the Sweden Democrats. 

A recent poll came out that Fortune (Dec 2) covered and had the following results.

Social Democrats (current ruling political party -- part of a coalition): 29.4% (drop from 33.4%)

Moderates (main party in the opposition coalition): 22.1% (increase from 20.1%)

Sweden Democrats (far right party): 17.6% (small change)

Ruling coalition is at 44.2% while the opposition is at 45.1%. That is a total of 89.3% so I suspect that the 10.7% gets applied to parties that don't get enough votes that allow them to be part of the government. I'm also guessing that the Sweden Democrats are part of that 45.1%.

Since this is a bi-annual poll, the last poll would have taken place around early June. That would be considered the tail end of the first wave. It would seem that this second wave is causing the ruling political party to drop in the polls, but no real impact has occurred for the Sweden Democrats. In fact, the opposition coalition party has gained strength instead.

For additional context, about a year ago, I reported on Sweden's political polls at that time. At that time the Social Democrats were at 24.4%, the Moderates were at 17.0% and the Sweden Democrats were at 23.0%. The poll from a year ago and the current poll were done by different groups, but it does appear that the Sweden Democrats have lost significant support while the Social Democrats and Moderates have gained support. 

How will the Social Democrats be viewed after the pandemic has passed? Currently, in the middle of a pandemic, they're polling higher than they were a year ago, but there seems to be weakness there. The Sweden Democrats are definitely weaker, perhaps there is less of a desire for radical politics when you're in the middle of a pandemic. Perhaps they re-gain strength after the pandemic has ended and if the economy stays weak.