OPEC this month cut its 2021 forecast for U.S. tight crude, another term for shale, and expects production to decline by 140,000 barrels per day (bpd) to 7.16 million bpd.
. . . While some U.S. energy firms have increased drilling, production is expected to remain under pressure as companies cut spending to reduce debt and boost shareholder returns. Shale producers are also wary that increased drilling would quickly be met by OPEC returning more oil to the market.
. . . While shale companies have added more rigs in recent weeks, a tepid demand recovery and investor pressure to reduce debt has kept them from rushing to complete new wells.
When I started this blog back in 2017, I discussed the concept of financial discipline. It is 2021, and the concept of financial discipline is still being discussed. I will say this, at some point, shale producers will start acting with financial discipline. Maybe they stick with that concept for 2021 and 2022, but beyond that? Personally, I think the best strategy for shale producers would be to just follow the price of oil up. Don't over-produce, let OPEC + drive prices, and perhaps then these producers will finally get to return money to their shareholders.
Per EIA, they also anticipate shale production restraint:
EIA estimates that U.S. crude oil production will average 11.0 million b/d in 2021—down from 11.3 million b/d in 2020 and 12.2 million b/d in 2019—and will rise to 11.5 million b/d in 2022.
So they don't see U.S. crude production hitting the 2019 highs until at least past 2022. Some of this might just be related to the step drop off in weekly rig drilling that occurred in 2020. So I'll have to keep a continued eye on weekly rig counts. If rig counts start to dramatically increase in say late 2021 or early 2022, it may indicate that financial discipline is being ignored.
No comments:
Post a Comment