Coronavirus: Iran in a 4th Wave

Back in October 2020, I wrote about a dire forecast that 300,000 Iranians could die from COVID-19 by March 2022. Per Worldometer, the current number of deaths are over 70,000. No doubt, those deaths are significantly undercounted. Unfortunately, Iran is in the midst of a deadly fourth wave that resulted from the Persian New Year holiday. This fourth wave in raw numbers appear to be the worst wave in terms of confirmed cases, but we should note that based on Our World In Data daily testing is more than double what occurred in the third wave (Oct-Dec range) so more cases are being identified. On the other hand, ABC News (Apr 22) reported that hospitalizations peaked at 20,000 in the third wave and have topped 40,000 with a possibility of going to 60,000 in this fourth wave. So that is a sign of how bad this wave is. Yet another caveat; however, is that Iran is dealing with the UK variant, which might be the reason why hospitalizations are up.

Here are some news reports regarding what is happening in Iran:

Associated Press via Yahoo (Apr 18) reported:

After COVID-19 cases broke record after record earlier this month, the Health Ministry reported 21,644 infections on Sunday, bringing the total count over 2.2 million. Hospitals are rapidly filling across the country, particularly in the capital. Authorities reported 130 deaths in Tehran alone, according to Mohsen Hashemi, head of the Tehran municipal council. The single-day death toll nationwide reached a peak of over 480 last November.

Aljazeera (Apr 10) reported on a 10 day partial shutdown where only essential services can continue. The problem with those orders is that Iran isn't a wealthy country and people need to earn money to pay for the basics in life. Based on the below quotes, it doesn't look like people followed the new orders. Also, I really doubt that a 10 day partial shutdown would do much to quicken the natural decay of this fourth wave:

Iran’s coronavirus map looks like a sea of red as more than 250 cities, including all 32 province centres, are now classified “red”, indicating the highest level of severity.

. . . However, a report by state television from the streets of Tehran showed traffic jams and people crammed in public transport on their way to work on Saturday.

“They say it’s closed but everything is open,” a citizen told the state TV reporter in front of a packed bus.

. . . Iran has imported more than 1.7 million doses of coronavirus vaccines from Russia, China, India, and through COVAX, a global vaccine initiative.

Associated Press (Apr 15) reported:

Iran has finalized a deal with Russia to purchase 60 million doses of Sputnik V coronavirus vaccine, the state-run IRNA news agency reported Thursday.

The report quotes Iran’s ambassador to Russia, Kazem Jalali, as saying the contract has been “signed and finalized” for enough vaccinations to inoculate 30 million people.

Jalali said Iran will receive the vaccines by the end of the year.

I think it is important to mention that Iran has a population of 84 million. As of mid-April, only 1.7 million doses were imported into the country. An additional 60 million doses will arrive by end of the year (I wonder if that means the Persian calendar, which would imply March 2022). I am sure additional vaccines will arrive into the country from other sources, but potentially the largest chunk of vaccines won't arrive for another 8 to 10 months. 

Iran might find themselves deal with a fifth or six wave during that time frame.