Oil with Iraq, Iran, Kurds (Turkey) Intrigue

Upfront info: all external links are to Reuters articles.

There's some interesting intrigue going on in Iraq that includes the two Kurdish political parties and Iran. Turkey plays a role in all of this, as well.

Libya and Oil

Per my previous article on Libya on the various fighting across the country, one should wonder how is it that oil still flows from Libya? (Also, this oil question relates to how in the world can Iran and Saudi Arabia still be in OPEC together.) Well, it basically comes down to money.

Libya: Multiple Factions (East vs West)

To me, Libya is divided into two main factions: in the east you have the Libyan National Army (LNA), which is ruled by Khalifa Haftar who has the support of Egypt. To the west, in Tripoli, you have the U.N. backed government, known as the Government of National Accord (GNA). Then you have a bunch of factions such as ISIS and loyalists to Gaddafi scattered across the country.

Saudi Arabia: A Lot of Intrigue

On Saturday, November 4th, a lot of news popped up from Saudi Arabia.

Tesla: Attempt to Estimate Q4 2017 P&L

Tesla recently announced their Q3 2017 results. The results didn't excite as the stock dropped 6.8%.

I decided to do an exercise and see if I can predict how Tesla's P&L will look like for Q4 2017. The following is my best case scenario.

Venezuela: Survival Mode

It is rather obvious that the people of Venezuela are in survival mode.

One sad story I came across is the following from the Miami Herald. The headline sums up the article, "In Venezuela, they were teachers and doctors. To buy food, they became prostitutes."

Oil Price Impact Thoughts Part 2: Mid- to Long-Term

If one believes that peak demand for oil will occur around 2040, then there is plenty of time for fluctuations in oil price.

Here are some of my thoughts on what could impact oil prices (my thinking here is oil prices changing up or down by 25% or more):

Oil: Thoughts on Shale

One of my potential short-term impacts to oil prices is shale. Shale production is at least one reason why oil prices started to tank. And now, even with oil prices now rising, everyone is worried that US shale producers will chase the rising prices and drive prices back down.

Iraq: so complicated (Kurds/Sunni)

During the fight for Mosul, I always wondered, "What's next?"

Well, what's next is rather complicated when it comes to the relationship between the Kurds and Iraqis.

Venezuela: Debt Problems

Anyone who follows Venezuela knows that it has a debt problem. There are constant concerns about the country defaulting on its debts. There are a couple interesting articles that discuss this situation. One from Bloomberg and the other from Zerohedge.