Coronavirus: Long-Term Health Impacts

One topic I've paid attention to are the long-term health problems that arise for those who comes down with COVID-19. In this blog post, it appeared that 10% developed long-term issues.

The New York Times had a couple articles up that looked into the topic again. The first looks at how those who have "recovered" from COVID-19 are having to head back to the hospital. The second looks at the topic of loss of taste and smell.  

New York Times via Yahoo (Dec 30) reports:

“Even if they had a very mild course, at least one-third have significant symptomology two to three months out,” said Dr. Eleftherios Mylonakis, chief of infectious diseases at Brown University’s Warren Alpert Medical School and Lifespan hospitals, who co-wrote another report. “There is a wave of readmissions that is building, because at some point these people will say ‘I’m not well.’”

Coronavirus: What's Going on in Brazil?

Back on November 12th, I wrote a blog post stating that the COVID-19 data from Brazil was looking positive. Both cases and deaths were trending down. Even though the data looked good, I quoted a Foreign Policy (Oct 29) article that highlighted a spike in the city of Manaus. I wrote, "Will these findings eventually start showing up in the reported data?" Based on WorldoMeter, it definitely has shown up in the data. Basically, just taking an eye ball look, one could say that November 12th was near the low before both cases and deaths started to head back up. Now daily deaths are higher than that in the United States (though it would take a number of weeks at current levels for both countries before Brazil would over-take the United States in terms of deaths per million).

The Brazilian Variant: P.1

CNN (Mar 24):

And amid that surge, a worrying pattern has emerged—more young people seem to be getting severely ill and dying from Covid-19, doctors tell CNN.

. . . The increase in both illness and death in younger people has coincided with the rise of at least one Covid-19 variant in Brazil.

Coronavirus: Tanzania's President Magufuli has Died

I just recently reported on COVID-19 and Tanzania. The country is similar to North Korea -- in that there is no sharing of information. As I noted back in June, they long ago stopped reporting COVID-19 cases. Tanzania has since made the news as their president John Magufuli died after an 18-day absence from the public. There are some disputes on when he died. CNN (Mar 20) reports on this:

Samia Suluhu Hassan [the new president] said Magufuli had been receiving treatment in a Tanzanian hospital when he died on Wednesday evening.

However, opposition leaders insist Magufuli died of Covid-19 at least one week earlier.

So he either died on March 17th or a week prior to that date.

Libya: Interim Government Formed

I last wrote about Libya back in December. When I wrote that blog post, there was a move towards an interim government. That vote finally occurred on March 10th. On that date, Abdelhamid Dbeibah won a vote of confidence held by the House of Representatives. I searched through my posts on Libya and didn't see a single mention of Dbeibah. Who is he? Al Jazeera (Mar 16) writes:

Dbeibah, 61, a wealthy businessman from the western port city of Misrata, once held posts under longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi but has shown no clear ideological position. He is also known to be supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood and is close to Turkey.

Based on the fact that he has support from the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey, it'll be interesting to see how supportive Egypt is of him over the next few months. Sounds like he better know how to walk a political tight rope.

Coronavirus: the World Health Organization goes to China

I wrote about the coronavirus lab leak theory in a 2-part series, here and here. The World Health Organization recently traveled to China to conduct their own investigation into the origins of the pandemic. Here are timeline of the investigation: 

January 10th: China Not Exactly Cooperative

Per Associated Press (Jan 11) the World Health Organization went to China recently, but after a long delay: 

Negotiations for the visit have long been underway. WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus expressed disappointment last week over delays, saying that members of the international scientific team departing from their home countries had already started on their trip as part of an arrangement between WHO and the Chinese government.

January 13th: WHO Delayed Due to Members Testing Positive for Antibodies

Per the New York Times (Jan 13th) report:

But in a sign of Beijing’s continuing efforts to control the investigation, the team of scientists and W.H.O. employees almost immediately ran into obstacles. Two scientists were unable to enter China at the last minute and remained in Singapore because they tested positive for coronavirus antibodies, the W.H.O. said in a Twitter post. The Chinese authorities required the remaining 13 experts to undergo two weeks of quarantine in Wuhan, where the virus first emerged in late 2019.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 2

There are various possibilities for how SARS-CoV-2 came about to infect the world. Is it just me or does it seem like the probability for a lab leak from the Wuhan  Institute of Virology causing the pandemic is increasing from say "doubtful" to "plausible?"  

At the start of 2021, the New Yorker looked into the idea. Then in February, the Washington Post decided to explore the possibility. Yet, this is the same Washington Post which back on May 2020 had this headline: Was the new coronavirus accidentally released from a Wuhan lab? It’s doubtful.

Fast forward to February 2021 and the Washington Post is listing it as plausible.

Both address similar topics, but come up with far different conclusions.

Wuhan Institute of Virology

 
May 2020: In Wuhan, at least two labs study coronaviruses that originate in bats — the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention (WHCDC). 

Feb 2021: Wuhan, with a population of 11 million, is a major transportation hub and a center of virus studies in China, with at least six facilities with BSL-3 laboratories for handling infectious agents.

Coronavirus: Tanzania and Somalia

I last wrote about Tanzania back in June 2020 in a "don't trust the numbers" posts. Of course, it was too easy to write that post, because the country simply wasn't tracking cases anymore. At the time, I speculated that there must be hundreds of thousands of cases already in the country. Perhaps that estimate was too aggressive at the time, but it does appear that the virus is spreading across the country (even though they still aren't reporting numbers).

DW (Feb 9) reports:

Since December 2020, Tanzanians have grown warier about the pandemic. With rising deaths attributed to "acute pneumonia," many residents have abandoned carelessness and are taking the virus seriously.

Zanzibar's First Vice President Seif Sharif Hamad was taken ill by the virus, according to his party, ACT Wazalendo, at the end of January. His wife and aides were also infected.

. . . In January, two cases of the new South African strain — thought to be more contagious — were discovered in air travelers returning from Tanzania by Denmark's Statens Serum Institut (SSI), which specializes in infectious diseases.

Another Southern California City Looking at Pension Obligation Bonds: Whittier, CA

I've discussed my concern around pension obligation bonds since 2018. Pension obligation bonds work under the hope that the cash raised by these bonds can be invested and earn a higher rate of return than the interest paid on the bonds. As discussed in this 2019 blog post, research indicates that two-thirds of these bonds end up losing money. Considering that we haven't really had a bear market in years (we did have one in March 2020, which has to be one of the quickest bear markets in world history) one has to be concerned that the next one isn't that far away.

Well, the city of Whittier, CA has decided that it will be one of the one-thirds that doesn't end up losing money. Whittier Daily News (Jan 27) reports:

Facing rising pension costs, Whittier City Council members on Tuesday, Jan. 27, voted to consider issuing a $143 million bond issue that would pay off its unfunded portion of the city’s pension liabilities and stabilize ongoing costs.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak?

So yeah, how COVID-19 started spreading in this world is not something I am qualified to discuss: naturally or lab leak. I do know that the Wuhan lab leak theory was largely considered a fringe / conspiracy idea. But now the New Yorker (Jan 4) has a rather long write-up about the topic. 

Did China censor their own scientists?

Two laboratories, the Wuhan Center for Disease Control and Prevention (WHCDC) and the Wuhan Institute of Virology, were not far from the seafood market, which was where the disease was said to have originated, [Botao Xiao, a professor at the South China University of Technology] wrote — in fact, the WHCDC was only a few hundred yards away from the market — whereas the horseshoe bats that hosted the disease were hundreds of miles to the south . . . His article disappeared from the server. 

Coronavirus: Restaurants and the Virus

When it comes to getting food at restaurants and this COVID-19 pandemic, I've probably gone to far more extreme lengths than others have. I have yet to do any outdoor dining. I wouldn't even consider indoor dining. When I get my food to go, I only go to restaurants where I don't have to go indoors to order. And when the spread of the virus increased after the holidays, I took January off from going to restaurants. I even take other precautions that I won't mention in this write-up, because anyone who comes across this will think me crazy.

One thing in the back of my mind through all this is: How do restaurants deal with outbreaks? Well,  the LA Times (Jan 13) recently reported on this, talking to a handful of restaurant owners who took some serious precautions. Yet, I don't exactly feel confident that all restaurants are doing the same, because it can be very expensive to deal with COVID-19.

The article talks with Zack Hall, owner of Clark Street Bread, which had an outbreak. Here's a quote about how expensive it was to deal with the outbreak:

Hall hired a service to deep-clean the bakery, put together his own COVID-19 protocols for employees and started to provide testing through a private service every couple of weeks. He closed the business for four days and spent $25,000 on closing, preparing to reopen and testing.

Oil: BP Decimating Oil Exploration Team

In a previous blog post, I tossed out the idea that we could see an oil supply crunch sometime in 2023 - 2025 due to a lack of investment spending. I listed the following data on oil and gas investment spending from IEA (May 2020): 

2010: $425 billion 
2011: $460 
2012: $533 
2013: $540 
2014: $577 
2015: $507 
2016: $458 
2017: $470 
2018: $478 
2019: $483 
2020: $347

California Lacks Proper Computer Systems

The government of California, where Silicon Valley resides, just seems to have the worst IT systems. Here are two examples:

LA Times (Jan 25) reports on unemployment benefits:

California officials said Monday they have confirmed that $11.4 billion in unemployment benefits paid during the COVID-19 pandemic involve fraud — about 10% of benefits paid — and another 17% are under investigation.

. . . California has paid out $114 billion in unemployment benefits since March 2020, when the state stay-at-home orders caused many businesses to close or reduce operations, putting millions out of work. Some 19 million claims have been processed by the agency.

. . . Su said part of the blame goes to the Trump administration, which she said failed to provide adequate guidance and resources to California to counter fraudulent claims, almost all of which were filed through a new federal program that provides unemployment benefits to gig workers, independent contractors and the self-employed.

Oracle/Hewlett Packard Enterprise: Moving from California to Texas

In a prior blog post, I wrote about the wealthy leaving California. Now it looks like corporations are leaving, as well. This isn't a sudden situation. Toyota left California for Texas a few years back, but 2020 seems to be bringing a number of such headlines.

CNBC (Dec 11) reported that Oracle was moving their headquarters from California to Texas:

Oracle is the latest tech company to move its headquarters out of California. The company said on Friday it’s moving its headquarters from the Silicon Valley to Austin, Texas.

“Oracle is implementing a more flexible employee work location policy and has changed its Corporate Headquarters from Redwood City, California to Austin, Texas. We believe these moves best position Oracle for growth and provide our personnel with more flexibility about where and how they work,” a spokesperson confirmed to CNBC.

. . . The coronavirus pandemic has given a number of tech companies and prominent Silicon Valley figures an excuse to exit California. Hewlett Packard Enterprise announced earlier this month that it will relocate its headquarters from San Jose, California, to Houston, Texas. Data analytics software company Palantir Technologies also moved its headquarters to Denver, Colorado from Palo Alto, California, earlier this year.