Coronavirus: When did COVID-19 Start Spreading in the United States?

When did COVID-19 hit the shores of the United States? 

If we head back in time to January 2020, the first known case was reported in USA Today (Jan 23, 2020) as a man living in Washington State who had just come from China. He arrived in Washington State on January 15th and started to feel ill on Monday, January 20th. It now appears that COVID-19 was spreading much earlier than that.

Kansas Reflector (Aug 24, 2021) reported this:

Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data indicate there was a death in Kansas during the week ending Jan. 11, 2020, which would make it the earliest known death from COVID-19 anywhere in the United States. CDC media communications staff didn’t respond to multiple inquiries for this story.

Since it is my understanding that there is about a 2 week delay from illness until death (if that is the outcome), this individual likely started feeling symptoms in late December 2019. That would be perhaps 3 weeks before the Washington State case.

The Mercury News (Aug 23, 2021) reports that a Patricia Dowd was previously considered to be the first death due to COVID-19. Her death was on Feb 6th, 2020. So the Kansas death happened about a month sooner.

Is it possible that in December 2019, there were thousands of cases in the United States?

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 12 - House Foreign Affairs Committee Report Minority Staff

The Republican Staff on the House Foreign Affairs Committee issued an addendum to the final report on the origins of COVID-19. First off, the Republicans might be bias in their report due to ex-President Trump, but let's see what they reported on the possibility of a lab leak at the Wuhan Institute of Virology:

1. An accidental lab leak occurred prior to Sept 12, 2019.

2. Military World games were held in Wuhan in October 2019. Some athletes became sick with symptoms similar to COVID-19. About 60 Canadians got sick in Wuhan. Four countries that sent athletes (Brazil, France, Italy, Brazil) believe that the first cases of COVID-19 started in the November - December timeframe.

Black on Asian Crimes Due to White Supremacy?

I am obviously late on this topic, but here's another of my series on anti-Asian crimes (here and here are the other posts). For this post, I'm not actually looking at any data on anti-Asian hate crimes, but instead focusing on a March 30th Twitter post made by a Dr Eugene Gu and my critique of it. I'm sure many will disagree with my critique.

Black on Asian crimes only occur because of our system of white supremacy that strips African Americans of their economic opportunities while taking respect and dignity away from Asian Americans. Also, white people in power are experts at dividing and conquering to stay in power.

— Eugene Gu, MD (@eugenegu) March 30, 2021

Larry Elder: The Los Angeles Times Uses the Headline: Larry Elder is the Black face . . .

Los Angeles Times (Aug 20) has a column about Larry Elder and his run for Governor. The column does have some legitimate criticism of his beliefs. You may agree or disagree with those criticisms, but one has the right to their own beliefs on policies.

“We have been having a series of real uncomfortable discussions about systemic racism in institutions across this state,” said state Sen. Sydney Kamlager (D-Los Angeles). “About how to really peel back the layers of ignorance or ineptitude so that we can deal with them in very real ways. And Larry Elder is someone who just fundamentally doesn’t believe that [systemic racism] exists.”

Elder scoffs at the many efforts to reform the criminal justice system and to root out racial bias in policing by requiring more transparency and accountability from officers. Instead, he keeps trotting out statistics that purport to show that Black people are particularly prone to murdering one another.

But then it also goes into personal attacks such as the below.  

[Melinda] Abdullah of Black Lives Matter: “Anytime you put a Black face on white supremacy, which is what Larry Elder is, there are people who will utilize that as an opportunity to deny white supremacy. They say, ‘How could this be white supremacy? This is a Black man.’ But everything that he’s pushing, everything that he stands for, he is advancing white supremacy.”

Look, I'm not an expert on racism, but it seems to me that Melinda Abdullah is using the fact that she is Black as cover for using racist imagery. Who doesn't see Black face and not think of blackface used in old movies and sometimes not so old movies? You know she purposely used that combination of words. It wasn't by accident. 

 

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 11 - China Doesn't Want to Cooperate

I recently posted that the World Health Organization wanted "China to be more transparent as scientists searched for the coronavirus' origins." The organization wanted cooperation when it came to the lab leak hypothesis.

That public urging didn't seem to cause China to budge much when it comes to cooperation. Associated Press via the Los Angeles Times (Jul 22): 

China cannot accept the World Health Organization’s plan for the second phase of a study into the origins of the coronavirus, a senior Chinese health official said Thursday.

Anti-Asian Hate Crimes: Europe

I wrote a blog post about anti-Asian hate crimes in the United States a few weeks back. Then I started to think, "What's the situation in Europe?"  

Here's are some articles that popped up in my search:

Germany

DW (Mar 21):

While racist attitudes towards people of Asian origin have been in focus following the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic and its alleged origins in the city of Wuhan in China, prejudices against Asians have long been evident in Germany.

Under the Nazi regime, Chinese living in Germany were expelled or deported to concentration and forced labor camps. But the most widespread anti-Asian racism would occur in the decade after German reunification.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 10 - W.H.O. Director General

I came across an interesting article at the Associated Press via the LA Times (Jul 15) that just might indicate some frustration over at the World Health Organization with the lack of transparency from China when it comes to the search for the origins of COVID-19: 

The head of the World Health Organization acknowledged that it was premature to rule out a potential link between the COVID-19 pandemic and a laboratory leak, and he said Thursday that he was asking China to be more transparent as scientists searched for the coronavirus’ origins.

In a rare departure from his usual deference to powerful member countries, WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus said getting access to raw data had been a challenge for the international team that traveled to China earlier this year to investigate the source of the coronavirus.

Coronavirus: Time for N95 Masks?

With the potential that the delta variant is reducing the efficacy of the Pfizer vaccine, might vaccinated people want to consider wearing N95 masks? Should non-vaccinated people definitely shift to N95 masks?

The Washington Post (Jul 24) reports:

"Delta is so contagious that when we talk about masks, I don't think we should just talk about masks," Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, said during a recent appearance on CBS's "Face the Nation." "I think we should be talking about high-quality masks," such as N95 respirators.

. . . [Chris Cappa, an environmental engineer and professor at the University of California at Davis] recommended that vaccinated, low-risk individuals make decisions about upgrading their masks based on situational factors. Keep in mind, he said, that the longer you're in an enclosed space in proximity to other people, the more your odds of catching something go up. Community rates of transmission and hospitalizations should also be considered.

So Google states that an environmental engineer works on designing water supply systems. Does this really qualify someone to officially make recommendations on N95 masks? Anyways, it is interesting that the recommendation is being made for when you're going to be in an enclosed space for a long period of time (at least this is how I read it). 

Just knowing what is happening in Los Angeles, I can say that very few people are wearing N95 masks. And even though there is a mask mandate, it isn't always being followed inside bars and other such entertainment venues. Sure, you can't wear a mask and drink at the same time, but my sense is that masks are being worn as people enter a location and then as soon as the first drink is ordered the mask is removed and never returned to cover the face.

Oil: By 2050 will $10 be the new price point?

Wood Mackenzie (Apr 15) has the following scenario:

If the world acts decisively to limit global warming to 2°C by 2050, the scale of change will revolutionise the energy industry . . . Ann-Louise Hittle, vice president, Macro Oils, at global natural resources consultancy Wood Mackenzie, said: “Our Accelerated Energy Transition Scenario – AET-2 – gives an indication of how energy demand, supply and pricing will change if policy and technology are rapidly deployed to cut greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement.

Under this Accelerated Energy Transition scenario, Wood Mackenzie sees Brent oil's price ranging from $10 to $18 by 2050. It should be noted that this is a scenario. It isn't the scenario that WILL happen, but it COULD happen.

As stunning as $10 might be, BP back in January 2018 had a research paper where they argued that we were going to see a "shift in paradigm from an age of (perceived) scarcity to an age of abundance." Also, dropping to $10 a barrel, doesn't mean that oil prices won't get to $80 in 2021 due to increases in demand over the short-term or that in the mid-term we might see serious shortages of oil due to a lack of investment.

Coronavirus: More Long Term Symptom News

The New York Times (Mar 23) has another article reporting the long term health issues related to COVID-19 that are coming out of the research from Northwestern Medicine. Northwestern Medicine has been doing research into the long term health impacts for awhile now. If you're interested, I've written additional posts on the research coming out of Northwestern Medicine and you can read those posts here, here and here.

What is unique about this particular study is that it studies the impact of the virus on people who were never sick enough to go to the hospital.

The study of 100 patients from 21 states, published on Tuesday in The Annals of Clinical and Translational Neurology, found that 85 percent of them experienced four or more neurological issues like brain fog, headaches, tingling, muscle pain and dizziness.

Oil: Shale News - Production Constraints, Actual DUCs

I think many of us are aware that as much of the world comes out of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is a supply crunch on many goods and services. The most high profile is probably the semiconductor chip shortage. This supply shortage is also hitting shale oil. OilPrice (Jun 7) reported on this recently:

As the prices of steel, cement and other raw materials climb higher and higher amid tightening supply, drillers in the U.S. shale patch are facing higher production costs, Bloomberg reports, citing Citigroup analysts.

Bloomberg via World Oil (Jun 6) reported:

Inflation could reach 12% or more by the end of this year for the sector in North America, analysts including Scott Gruber wrote Friday in a note to investors.

. . . Service providers have found it difficult to hike pricing in North America, where competition is more fierce than it is in international markets. It’s one reason the world’s biggest oilfield contractors are pivoting away from the U.S. and Canada in search of growth overseas.

Even though costs are rising dramatically that isn't stopping shale producers from expanding their oil rig counts. After hitting a low of 172 in August 2020, weekly rig counts are at 387.

That last Bloomberg quote regarding service providers looking into international markets is interesting. Does that hint that there could be further constraints on shale as contractors shift to the International market or does that just mean that suppliers that remain will just get more profitable? 

Coronavirus: Long Haulers and Disability Benefits

I've written about "Long Haulers" and COVID-19 here and here. This is what I wrote on the second post:

The article mentions that these significant symptoms are mainly those over 65, but does impact younger people. The United States has around 22 million people who have recovered from COVID-19. The question (which will be answered over the next few years) is how lingering are these health issues. And if these issues linger, it doesn't sound good for the individual or the United States: brain fog, respiratory problems, blood clots, heart trouble; those just sound like significant medical issues to me.

Well, one of the "doesn't sound good for the individuals or the United States" is brought up in a couple articles in the Los Angeles Times that looks into those who want to claim disability benefits due to COVID-19, but are having difficulties qualifying for those benefits.

This LA Times (March 10) article looks into having to deal with insurance companies:

Sandy Lewis, a pharmaceutical industry researcher, fell ill last March with what she assumed was COVID-19. She recovered but relapsed in April and again in May.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 9 -- Wuhan Lab Scientist Argues Against Lab Leak

I've looked at various arguments for the Lab Leak Hypothesis so I figure it is important to visit the other side of the argument. Bloomberg (Jun 27) has an article where they talk to a Dr. Danielle Anderson who worked at the Wuhan Institute of Virology up until November 2019. The fact that she worked there until November 2019 is important for context, because we know that both CNN and the Wall Street Journal reported that "several researchers" fell ill in November 2019.

A rising star in the virology community, Anderson, 42, says her work on Ebola in Wuhan was the realization of a life-long career goal.

I think that is also important context. It doesn't appear that she was involved with coronavirus research, but instead was focused on Ebola research -- though it seems like it is implied that she worked with bats.

Back to the fact that CNN and the Wall Street Journal stated that researchers fell ill in November 2019, it is important to see what Dr. Anderson has to say about topic.

Anderson said no one she knew at the Wuhan institute was ill toward the end of 2019. Moreover, there is a procedure for reporting symptoms that correspond with the pathogens handled in high-risk containment labs.