Coronavirus: Getting Venezuela Vaccinated

Per Worldometer, Venezuela has the lowest number of cases per million than any other South American country. It really isn't close. Could one make the argument it is due to a lack of testing? Sure, they've done less testing than countries such as Argentina and Brazil, but it isn't like they've done no testing. Though it looks like Venezuela isn't being impacting as badly as their other South American neighbors, at some point the virus starts to spread. And that's where discussions around what role the vaccine will play within the country. At the moment, there appears to be politics in play though they are getting some vaccines from Russia. 

POLITICS IN PLAY ABC News (Jan 22):

The socialist government of Nicolás Maduro and the U.S.-backed opposition are accusing each other of playing politics with proposals to finance United Nations-supplied vaccines — so far blocking any option from going ahead.

. . . The cash-strapped government, shut out from western banks by U.S. sanctions, has proposed selling a small part of the $2 billion Venezuela's central bank has sitting frozen in the U.K. Lawyers for Venezuela's central bank warn a “humanitarian disaster, and a potentially large loss of life" could result if the U.K. funds aren't freed up.

. . . The opposition has instead proposed tapping similarly embargoed funds it has access to in the U.S. and deploying monitors to make sure distribution of the vaccine isn't used as a cover for political patronage — a potential victory for Guaidó's faction since Maduro has effectively shut it out of power within Venezuela's borders.

Future Oil Crunch Still in the Cards?

When I started this blog (Q4 2017), my assumption was that we would hit an oil crisis sometime between 2020 - 2022. And by oil crisis, I meant that oil prices could hit $150 (give or take). That forecast won't come true due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Maybe it wasn't going to happen even without the pandemic. However, with the vaccine rolling out, might the pandemic potentially result in a higher probability of an oil crisis hitting? Perhaps I just need to shift my forecast out to 2023 - 2025?

IEA (May 2020) has the following investment spending data on oil and gas. 

2010: $425 billion 
2011: $460 
2012: $533 
2013: $540 
2014: $577 
2015: $507 
2016: $458 
2017: $470 
2018: $478 
2019: $483 
2020: $347

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books - Science & Medicine: Looking at the Coronavirus and Pandemics

The Los Angeles Times has their annual Festival of Books. This year, of course, the discussion panels are being held online. That's my favorite part of the book festival. This was the final panel discussion I watched. This panel discussion was called, "Science & Medicine: Looking at the Coronavirus and Pandemics." Per YouTube, here's the introduction to the discussion:

Here we are – more than half a year into the corornavirus pandemic, and what do we know, what went wrong, and how can we do better? Let’s hear from the experts: science journalist Debora MacKenzie, prize-winning author/journalist Sonia Shah, and sociologist, physician, and author Nicholas Christakis. L.A. Times health-care reporter Soumya Karlamangla will guide the conversation tracking the history of pandemics, how migrations spread disease, and how coronavirus will change the way we live.

The following are my notes from the panel discussion: 

Debora MacKenzie - Prize Winning Science Journalist and Author

Coronavirus should never have happened. It was predicted by scientists. Labs were working on this and knew it posed a risk for a pandemic. We didn't continue vaccine research after SARS. All preparation was on a flu pandemic, not a coronavirus. We had rules in place to tell people, but the information didn't get out. People didn't believe something like this could happen.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books - Seeking Freedom: Race, Gender, and Citizenship

The Los Angeles Times has their annual Festival of Books. This year, of course, the discussion panels are being held online. That's my favorite part of the book festival. This was the 6th panel discussion I watched. This panel discussion was called, "Seeking Freedom: Race, Gender, and Citizenship." Per YouTube, here's the introduction to the discussion:

Who gets to be citizens in the Land of the Free? In a wide-ranging conversation, a panel of experts in law, history, and social work will discuss historical and contemporary obstacles faced by marginalized communities in the U.S. as well as the paths towards freedom and empowerment. The panel features USC Professors Sam Erman, Ariela Gross, and Kristen Zaleski moderated by History Professor Alaina Morgan. 

The following are my notes from the panel discussion:

Sam Erman - Law Professor at USC

His book is about Puerto Rico. How did oldest democracy (U.S.) have the oldest colony (Puerto Rico). Puerto Rico became a colony after the 1898 war with Spain. Three decades before 1898, annexation came to a hard stop. The Civil War slowed down empire. There was a requirement that all folks in the US had to become citizens (other than Native Americans) and all territories would eventually become states. 

Coronavirus: Vaccinating California

California is having a difficult time vaccinating their population. As of Feb 2nd, California ranked in the bottom third of all states in getting vaccines from inventory and into the arms of people. CalMatters (Feb 2) reported on the slow progress of vaccinating the state:

Many public health experts say most of the factors that have slowed the state’s inoculation plan are outside the governor’s control: California’s size and complexity, a fragmented public health care system spread over 58 counties, unsteady federal leadership and the challenges of transporting, storing and administering current COVID-19 vaccines.

The typical blame President Trump, but let me just re-state that California ranks in the bottom third in getting vaccinations from inventory into arms of people. You can't blame that on President Trump. California is in the same situation as the other 49 states. Many of the other complaints just sound like excuses as they would apply to other states (excluding the size complaint), as well. 

The state’s initial distribution framework, which prioritized Californians by occupation group, underlying medical conditions and housing status, may have slowed the process by creating a system that was difficult to administer and hard for the public to understand.

. . . And last week, the governor announced a simplified eligibility system. Once counties finish vaccinating healthcare workers, next in line will be teachers, childcare workers, agricultural workers and emergency responders, and Californians over the age of 65. After that, counties will move through their populations solely by age.

Oil Price Forecasts for 2021: All COVID-19 Driven

As one would anticipate, oil forecasts are all dependent on how the world conquers COVID-19. OilPrice (Nov 20) had this to say:

Crude oil demand is likely to rebound next year following the promising news about a vaccine against the novel coronavirus, according to Fitch Solutions . . . For next year, Fitch expects Brent crude to average $48 a barrel, rising to $50 a barrel in 2022. 

Reuters (Dec 31) reports:

The poll of 39 economists and analysts conducted in the second half of December forecast Brent crude prices would average $50.67 per barrel next year.

Oil Shale News: Breakeven and Oil Majors

Here's a couple articles I came across about shale:

OilPrice (Dec 17) reports about a drop in breakeven costs for US shale:

Pressured by plunging oil prices and the need to adjust to the lower oil demand, U.S. oil producers have slashed costs and managed to bring down their average breakeven costs by nearly 20 percent to $45 a barrel on average, Bloomberg’s research service, BloombergNEF (BNEF), said on Thursday. 

According to BloombergNEF’s estimates, U.S. oil producers have cut their average breakeven costs from an average of $56.50 per barrel last year to $45 a barrel now. Some of the most prolific areas in the U.S. shale patch, such as the core of the Permian and Eagle Ford basins, have even seen breakeven costs dropping to an average of $36.50 per barrel now, from $44 a barrel last year.

I wonder how sustainable the lower breakeven is. Back in June 2019, I wrote a blog post about water and sand being constraints on the shale industry. How much of the drop in the breakeven is driven by a greater supply of water and sand? I should note in that post that the breakeven in the Permian was around $49 per barrel. This would be in the 2019 timeframe. The Bloomberg quote above has the Permian in 2019 at $44 a barrel. 

My Thoughts on GameStop

I think most of us understand the general story behind GameStop (GME). The stock spent almost all of 2020 trading under $20 and generally under $10. Investors via Reddit's WallStreetBets noticed that the stock was heavily shorted. They went long on the stock and some hedge funds that were short took a beating. The hedge fund that has drawn the most attention seems to be Melvin Capital Management. Now many of the retail investors who went long on the stock did their trades via Robinhood. For a couple days there, Robinhood put restrictions on the stock (they weren't the only ones), which drew theories that Robinhood was doing so based on a request of Citadel. Citadel and with Point72 provided Melvin Capital with $3 billion in funding and Citadel also does business with Robinhood. GameStop stock price eventually hit $483 before crashing dramatically from those highs.

Now I like anyone who follows Wall Street found this fascinating. Individual investors were teaching a handful of hedge funds a lesson. To me, it was like going to a race track, studying the horses in a race, and realizing that there was a good change that a 15-1 horse would actually win the race. The horse comes in and I get to feel like I outsmarted most every. Yet, even though I win, other betters lose. 

Coronavirus: President Biden adopting much of President Trump's "Dismal Failure" Vaccination Plan

Back on January 15th, Joe Biden called President Trump's vaccine rollout plan a "dismal failure. ANI (Jan 15) reported:

While expressing gratitude to the scientists, researchers and people who participated in clinical trials, Biden said, "The vaccine rollout in the United States has been a dismal failure."

Now that didn't exactly seem like appropriate language to get President Trump's Operation Warp Speed team to work with then President Elect Joe Biden's coronavirus transition team. Why would Joe Biden make that type of statement? I think it was an attempt to lower expectations, similar to his low ball pledge of getting 100 million vaccine doses in 100 days target. That pledge was already a realistic target as during the final days of Trump's administration the US was trending close to 1 million doses per day.

A question to ask is: was President Trump's rollout plan really a dismal failure?

Bloomberg (Jan 28) reports that the Biden team is only making modest changes to the plan.

President Joe Biden and his top advisers have derided the Trump administration’s playbook for distributing coronavirus vaccines, but so far have made only modest changes to the plan that’s meeting their target pace of more than one million shots a day.

Coronavirus: Vaccine Standby Lines in Los Angeles

I've written a couple other articles about how people are jumping the vaccine line (or attempt to jump the line). I've written about how the wealthy are attempting to bribe their way to the front or just have certain healthcare benefits that will get them ahead of others. I've also written about vaccine tourism, which probably is an upper middle class and above situation. Now it appears that ordinary people have figured out a way to jump the line. The LA Times (Jan 23) reports on this:

There is, officially speaking, no such thing as a standby line for COVID-19 vaccinations in Los Angeles County.

But some clinics have soon-to-expire doses left over at the end of the day or during an early-afternoon lull, and word has quickly spread about this potential back door to vaccine access. Some who flock to the sites spend hours waiting in the hope of catching a lucky break. 

Coronavirus: Vaccine Tourism

I previously wrote about how one doctor was approached with a $25,000 donation/bribe in Los Angeles to get a vaccination ahead of others. The donation / bribe was denied. In that blog post, I highlighted the fact that the wealthy with access to exclusive healthcare groups would be able to get the vaccine ahead of others. Those individuals were likely in the top 1% income group. It looks like those in the upper-middle class and up are finding a different type of loop hole that will get them access to the vaccine ahead of others. 

Bloomberg (Jan 21) reports on this:

Frustrated by crashing appointment websites, shortages of Covid-19 shots and a patchwork of confusing eligibility rules, people with time and money are heading out of town in pursuit of a potentially life-saving inoculation.

Coronavirus: World Health Organization Warns About Vaccine Selfishness

There's a lot of debating about how vaccines should be distributed and about fear of people jumping ahead of others. For example, in the United States, there is a fear that the wealthy will jump the line. Of course, that same fear can apply to the world. In that situation, the United States is wealthy when compared to much of the rest of the world. I addressed this concern back in early December.

As vaccinations are starting to be administered, the WHO is warning about this inequity. Reuters (Jan18) reports on this topic: 

The world is on the brink of “catastrophic moral failure” in sharing COVID-19 vaccines, the head of the World Health Organization said on Monday, urging countries and manufacturers to spread doses more fairly around the world.

. . . [WHO Director-General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus] said more than 39 million vaccine doses had been administered in 49 higher-income countries whereas just 25 doses had been given in one poor country.

A delegate from Burkina Faso, on behalf of the African group, expressed concern at the meeting that a few countries had “hoovered up” most of the supplies.