Coronavirus: India's 2nd Wave

I last wrote about India and COVID-19 in January. At the time, an assumption was that 60% of the population might have already come down with COVID-19. I was a touch skeptical of those claims as the deaths per million were just really low and didn't make sense when compared to a 60% infection percentage. Yes, India has a young population of just 28.4, but Mexico has a similarly young population of 29.2 and their official deaths per million were 10x that of India's.

Those of us interested in COVID-19 beyond the borders of the United States know that India is now in a very strong second wave. The articles that I read partially point the finger to the Hindu's Kumbh Mela pilgrimage as being a super-spreader event. This would seem to align with the United States having a major wave occurring after Thanksgiving and Christmas. There is also the fact that India is going through a political campaign season (might sound familiar to Americans) and that society was opening up after the first wave.

What is the current news coming out of India?

Own 'Double Mutant' Variant

NPR (Apr 24) reports:

Officially, the variant is called B.1.617, but many people and media outlets (including NPR) have referred to the variant as the "double mutant." That's because B.1.617 has two key mutations that have cropped up in two other infamous strains.

. . . But, [Kristian Andersen at Scripps Research Institute] says, no one knows for sure if B.1.617 is more transmissible and thus driving India's surge. "We also know the B.1.1.7 [the variant first detected in the U.K.] is circulating in India, and we know that P.1. [the variant first detected in Brazil] is also circulating there, too. So they could also play a role in this surge. We simply don't have the data yet."

. . . There are also signs that people who have already had COVID-19 can be reinfected more easily with this strain, [Cambridge University's Ravi Gupta] wrote, especially over time, as their natural immunity wanes. These reinfections may be driving this second, explosive surge in India.

Even though we've been hearing all about this mutant strain, it looks like it isn't the only variant driving this second wave. The article seems to go with the assumption that there was a high infection rate in the first wave as they appear to push the idea of reinfections. This NPR article might be considered to be a worst case scenario write-up.

The Current Situation

Time (Apr 23) reports:

Every day, more than 2,000 people in India are dying with COVID-19, according to official numbers—and experts believe that number is a dramatic underestimate. Three health officials who asked to remain anonymous told me they believe that the daily number of COVID-19 deaths in India has already crossed the 10,000 figure.

Coronavirus: What's the Situation in India?

India has a population that is over 4x that of the United States, and yet per Worldometer, India has far fewer total cases than we do. In fact, the United States is near all time highs in daily cases while India's cases have been in decline since September. What are some of the reasons given for why this is happening?

Reuters (Dec 18) reports: 

“If infections were surging, we would have seen the number of patients in hospitals go up, especially after the festival season. That has not happened,” said Raman Gangakhedkar, who until recently headed epidemiology at the Indian Council Of Medical Research.

A government-appointed panel tasked with making projections based on a mathematical model has estimated that 60% of India’s 1.35 billion people have already been infected with the virus.

That would indicate that over 800 million Indians already came down with COVID-19. Does that even make sense considering that officially only around 152,000 people have died due to COVID-19? This virus kills the elderly more than the young and India does have a young population of 28.4 compared to the United States at 38.4. Per Worldometer the deaths per million in India stands at 109 vs 1,186 in the United States. Does age really impact deaths to that degree? Let's look at Mexico which has an average age of 29.2, but has deaths per million of 1,056. If 60% of the population got infected, one would have to think that deaths per million would be well above 109. There is either some serious undercounting going on in terms of deaths or that 60% is just not realistic. Of course, perhaps they've figured out a way to better prevent those who come down with COVID-19 from getting seriously ill.

Coronavirus: India

The first coronavirus cases popped up in India in late January and February via tourists from China and Italy. In an attempt to avoid the spread of the virus, the government shut down the economy that impacted 140 million migrant laborers. The world got to view videos of police beating lockdown offenders or making them do physical exercises. We also saw photos of crowded railway stations.

All those efforts may have just delayed the inevitable. Currently, per Worldometer, India has by far the most official cases in Asia. I say official as who knows how many cases really hit China. The coronavirus is now spreading across Mumbai (18.4 million) and New Delhi (21.8 million). What does the news have to say about these two cities?