Coronavirus: What's Going on in Brazil?

Back on November 12th, I wrote a blog post stating that the COVID-19 data from Brazil was looking positive. Both cases and deaths were trending down. Even though the data looked good, I quoted a Foreign Policy (Oct 29) article that highlighted a spike in the city of Manaus. I wrote, "Will these findings eventually start showing up in the reported data?" Based on WorldoMeter, it definitely has shown up in the data. Basically, just taking an eye ball look, one could say that November 12th was near the low before both cases and deaths started to head back up. Now daily deaths are higher than that in the United States (though it would take a number of weeks at current levels for both countries before Brazil would over-take the United States in terms of deaths per million).

The Brazilian Variant: P.1

CNN (Mar 24):

And amid that surge, a worrying pattern has emerged—more young people seem to be getting severely ill and dying from Covid-19, doctors tell CNN.

. . . The increase in both illness and death in younger people has coincided with the rise of at least one Covid-19 variant in Brazil.

The so-called P.1 variant, which scientists say originated from Brazil, is widely agreed upon to be more easily transmissible, up to 2.2 times so according to a recent study.

. . . Experts also point to an increase in parties around the new year and Carnival holidays in the first part of the year. Younger people taking part in parties may simply have been more exposed as of late.

This party scene seems very similar to what was (is) happening in Los Angeles. I might have to follow-up and see how the Los Angeles underground party scene is doing. 

It is important to keep an eye on this P.1 variant. Doing a Google search, this variant is gaining a foot hold in the United States. My search had articles about the variant showing up in Florida, Massachusetts, New York, and San Diego county -- and that was just looking at the first two pages of my search. 

It is also important to keep an eye on this variant and to see if it really is more serious for younger people. Africa has appeared to escape significant harm from this virus (other than South Africa). The average age in Africa is just 19.7 -- being young appears to be a benefit in surviving COVID-19. If this variant gets a strong hold on the continent and is more deadly for young adults, a serious spike in deaths could hit the continent. Since Africa is going to have to wait behind Europe and North America when it comes to vaccinations, there is just more time for the virus to wreck havoc on the continent. 

The State of Brazil's Hospitals

NPR (Mar 23):

In more than half of the country's 26 states, ICU occupancy rates have hit 90% or above, according to a bulletin posted March 16 by the Brazilian medical research institution Fiocruz. Brazil's public health systems are "living through the worst collapse in history," it said.

There have been numerous reports in Brazilian media and on social media platforms of patients dying while waiting for beds, shortages of medicines and oxygen, and bodies being dumped in hospital corridors.

Once admired worldwide for its fast and efficient national immunization drives, Brazil has seen its COVID-19 vaccination program plagued by political infighting, bureaucratic blunders and supply problems.

My one negative critique of this article is the immunization sentence. When you're hit with a brand new virus and there is a scarcity of vaccines that wouldn't occur in other drives, of course you're going to run into problems.  

Lack of Oxygen

Al Jazeera (Mar 24):

Two months on, Brazil’s COVID catastrophe has never been worse. Now, with new coronavirus variants and a series of grim records of deaths and infections, there are fears that a lack of oxygen supplies seen in Manaus, the Amazonas state capital, could unfold elsewhere.

The Ministry of Health acknowledged the situation on Tuesday, alerting that six Brazilian states’ oxygen levels were critical, especially in central-western states like Acre and Rondonia, as Brazil reported by far its highest single-day deaths since the beginning of the pandemic.

One has to believe that this P.1 variant is spreading across South America right now. Just taking a look at WorldoMeter,, I'd say that Chile, Paraguay, Peru and Uruguay are seeing spikes in cases. Maybe Venezuela. Just based on deaths per million, Paraguay and Uruguay have been largely spared compared to their South American neighbors. Those two countries could become the next hot spots. Based on Our World In Data, Paraguay's vaccination program is lagging Uruguay's so Paraguay might be the one to really keep an eye on.