Oil: Production at Oil Majors Slowing Sooner Than Anticipated?

In recent months, I've discussed European oil majors shifting away from oil production. I talked about BP here and then looked at Shell here. The IEA has warned that due to a lack of investments, we could see oil supplies slump by 9 mb/d by 2025. 

Now Rystad Energy (Feb 18) has some discussions on oil production by the majors: 

Rystad Energy forecasts that the majors’ net production will be around 17.5 million boepd in 2025 and peak at around 18 million boepd in 2028, based on our latest revisions. For context, our internal forecast in February 2020 – before the shockwaves from Covid-19 – stood at 19 million boepd for 2025 and 20 million boepd in 2028.

The article has a chart of the oil majors and their barrels of oil equivalent per day. It isn't in table form so it is hard to tell who is increasing or decreasing production over the years. However, based on prior posts I've done, Shell has already indicated that their oil production will decline by 1% to 2% a year. And BP is reducing their investments in oil significantly, so I suspect they are in decline, as well. From the chart, it definitely looks like ExxonMobil will continue to increase their production -- even out all the way to 2030.

Let's go back to the IEA seeing a 9 mb/d slump by 2025. Rystad has the oil majors slumping by just 1.5 million boepd. Now, these are two different terms, but I suspect that the IEA and Rystad are likely coming up with similar forecasts for 2025. If so, other producers of oil will be seeing significant declines in oil production (if IEA's forecast becomes reality) to get to those 2025 targets.

Rystad continues:

Before Covid-19 and the price crash, most companies had assumed an oil price in the range of $70 to $80 per barrel, which allowed them to pursue several higher-cost projects. After the price slump and with continued uncertainty around future oil demand, companies have reduced their price assumptions to between $55 and $70 per barrel, making high-cost projects unviable to pursue.

At the end of the year, the total spending cuts stood at $26 billion, or 32% of the five majors’ initially announced guidance. Most of the capex cuts relate to greenfield development projects as the majors wait for a recovery in prices and demand before moving ahead with new projects.

Rystad Energy estimates that the five majors approved $30 billion less in greenfield investment in 2020 than they did the year before – a decline of 90%.

Does the spending cut percent of 32% imply that capital spending was expected to come in at 81 billion and ended up at 55 billion? Anyways, if my interpretation of greenfield is correct, the oil majors stopped development on projects where oil has already been discovered. It looks like they are still spending money on either brownfields or exploration. If the IEA's forecast does become reality, perhaps these greenfield locations can be turned into oil producing fields in a rather short period of time. I'm sure the IEA has considered that, but it may indicate that any shortfall in oil needs will not resolved in quick order.