Coronavirus: Sweden in 2021

This is my first Sweden and COVID-19 look in 2021. The last time I looked at Sweden was in December 2021. At that time, Sweden's healthcare system was near capacity due to COVID-19. The government was also looking into taking a tougher approach on restrictions. Per Worldometer, new cases have been at elevated levels basically from November until today; however, it does look like new cases are on a distinct downward trend. Though daily cases have been elevated, deaths peaked in December/January and have seen a significant decline since that point -- though there is a spike on May 21st, which might be a clerical catch-up.

What is some of the news reports coming out of Sweden?

COVID-19 High Level Situation

The Guardian (Apr 13) reported:

Sweden has reported Europe’s highest number of new coronavirus infections per head over the past week and has more patients in intensive care than at any time since the pandemic’s first wave.

The Scandinavian country, which has opted against strict lockdowns but gradually ratcheted up its still mostly voluntary restrictions, has a seven-day average of 625 new infections per million people, according to ourworldindata.org.

. . . However, while both infections and ICU patients have surged, Sweden’s death toll has so far not risen so sharply, a trend the national health agency said was due to many of the most vulnerable, particularly care home residents, now being vaccinated.

I think the fact that Sweden had higher number of cases starting around April (on a per million basis) just indicates how long their current wave has lasted compared to their European peers. 

I do find the fact that daily deaths declined starting in January while daily infections just started to decline this month (hopefully) interesting. The argument made by The Guardian is that this is due to the vaccination of the elderly in care homes. Yet, isn't that the same strategy that the United States used -- vaccinating those in our nursing homes? I would say that per Worldometer the US graphs for daily infections and deaths rise and decline in a much more aligned fashion. I guess I don't buy the fact that Sweden's deaths dropped so rapidly is due to their vaccination policy. I think there is something else yet to be discussed.

Daily Life Restrictions

Reuters (May 12) reported:

Sweden will delay plans to ease COVID-19 restrictions on some public gatherings, such as football matches, until June 1, Prime Minister Stefan Lofven said on Wednesday.

The government had said at the end of last month it hoped to ease restrictions and allow more spectators for some sporting and cultural events from May 17, but Lofven said the situation in the health system remained strained.

RTE (May 20) reported:

It has however gradually tightened restrictions since November, including a ban on alcohol sales after 8pm and on public gatherings of more than eight people.

Since March, cafes, bars and restaurants have also been required to shut by 8.30pm.

When thinking about restrictions, I like to do some comparisons to California. Right now, Los Angeles is in the Yellow Tier. (California has a four color tier with yellow being the lowest tier before allowing a wide open scenario.) In Los Angeles, restaurants can open at 50% capacity and bars are restricted to 25% capacity. This appears more open than in Sweden where restrictions are at just eight people. Not knowing for sure if Sweden allows fans at their football matches, in Los Angeles, Dodger Stadium is restricted to 18,480 fans versus a capacity of 56,000. I would say that at least up to June 1st, Los Angeles is far more open than Sweden. As California is targeting to be totally open starting June 15th, that advantage that Sweden gains starting June 1st might last just two weeks.

Vaccinations

Reuters via Yahoo (May 18) reported:

Sweden, which has shunned lockdowns throughout the pandemic, has seen the number of cases and intensive care patients drop fast in the recent weeks with more than 40% of the adult population now having received at least one dose of vaccine.