Saturday, May 15, 2021

Coronavirus: is there a possibility Africa will become the next India?

It is known that India is dealing with a serious second wave. This occurred even though the country took decisive action all the way back in March 2020 where videos of police beating people emerged. If India is seeing an explosion of cases, is it possible that Africa will see a similar wave soon? One argument made for why Africa hasn't seen a significant wave is that maybe they did see one, but due to having a population with an average age of just 19.7, perhaps the virus wasn't sending people to the hospital in any significant manner. We should note; however, that India's average age is 26.8. Yes, 7 years older, but still a very young population. Is a -- for most of the continent -- first wave about to occur on the continent?

One thing I did notice about cases in Africa is that per Worldometer, every country with over 200,000 (5 countries) has access to the open seas -- to be technical, Ethiopia doesn't have access to the open seas, but they do use Djibouti. Will the virus slowly spread inwards? Anyways, what is happening currently in India is causing concern in Africa.

Current Concerns

Guardian (May 1):

“What is happening in India cannot be ignored by our continent,” John Nkengasong, director of the Africa Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said last week. “We do not have enough healthcare workers, we do not have enough oxygen … We cannot and should not find ourselves in [India’s] scenario because of the very fragile nature of our health systems.”

. . . According to latest World Bank figures, there are almost four times more doctors per inhabitant in India than across Africa. 

There are discussions out there about how India doesn't have the health system that Europe and America has, which is one reason why COVID-19 is having such a major impact in India during this second wave. Yet, the Guardian states that India has a great health care system when compared to Africa. This makes one think about how bad a first wave could be in Africa. Another issue that could make a wave so bad in Africa is economics. Right now, India is concerned about putting the country in a lockdown due to the economic impact. But just think about the economic impact that a lockdown in Africa could do?

Some 494 million people in Sub-Saharan Africa, out of a total population of 1.14 billion, were expected to be living in poverty ahead of the pandemic in 2020. That total has risen by 40 million, the Pew analysis estimated.

Reuters via South China Morning Post (Apr 29):

Africa recorded nearly 76,000 new Covid-19 infections from April 19-25, an 8 per cent decline from the previous week, according to Africa CDC data.

Infection rates in Africa are down, which sounds good, but that could be driven by the following from the Associated Press (Apr 29):

Only 43 million tests for the virus have been conducted across the African continent since the pandemic began, the Africa CDC chief said, with a 26% drop in new tests conducted in the past week.

Vaccine Rollout

The above Associated Press, has this about the vaccine rollout:

Africa’s vaccine supply heavily relies on India, whose Serum Institute is the source of the AstraZeneca vaccines distributed by the global COVAX project to get doses to low- and middle-income countries. India’s export ban on vaccines “has severely impacted the predictability of the rollout of vaccination programs and will continue to do so for the coming weeks and perhaps months,” Nkengasong said.

The above answers a question I had in my blog post where I wondered which countries would be negatively impacted when India no doubt took measures to limit exports of vaccines and oxygen (for that matter).

. . . Just 17 million vaccine doses have been administered across the African continent for a population of some 1.3 billion, according to the Africa CDC.

AstraZeneca is a two dose vaccine, which means that at most 0.7% of the population is fully vaccinated. Obviously, that would imply that all 17 million doses are going to the same people, which isn't true so therefore far less than 0.7% of the population is fully vaccinated.

. . . She [Matshidiso Moeti] also warned that African countries must step up key public health measures to help avoid India’s scenario occurring here. The rate of testing for the coronavirus has dropped in “quite a few countries,” she said, and mentioned seeing data from one African nation in which the proportion of people not wearing face masks has risen to almost 80%.

Not really an issue about vaccines, but the fact that the rate of people not wearing face masks is rising perhaps also indicates that other safety measures are being discarded. These behaviors could help increase the spread of the virus.

DW (Apr 17):

 AstraZeneca's vaccine is the most commonly administered in Africa. The reason is simple: it's relatively inexpensive and — unlike other vaccines — easy to stockpile, as it doesn't need to be refrigerated at ultra-low temperatures.

. . . South Africa, meanwhile, has stopped administering the AstraZeneca jab because it appears to be ineffective against the South African coronavirus variant. The Johnson & Johnson vaccine was considered a viable alternative, until reports of blood clots emerged in the United States. This means South Africa's vaccination rollout has now been completely suspended.

I would think that the South African variant has spread beyond the borders of South Africa. So what are the chances that the AstraZeneca vaccine is going to be ineffective in other countries? Luckily for South Africa, the pause in vaccinations has currently ended.  

Business Tech (May 3):

South Africa finally received good news regarding its vaccination rollout, with the first batch of 325,260 Pfizer vaccines arriving in the country overnight.

A similar amount of weekly vaccine doses is expected to arrive through May for a total of 1.3 million doses by the end of the month. Thereafter, the supply is expected to increase notably to more than 636,000 per week in June.


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