Coronavirus: Los Angeles Response, "Let's Party Part II"

Back in January, I mentioned how Los Angeles was in party mode even though California was seeing a significant second wave of COVID-19 cases. Los Angeles, this past weekend, just hit the yellow color tier which meant more restrictions were relaxed. I saw a news report of folks going out to eat at restaurants and looking very happy about the additional freedom. That isn't the only celebration that was going on across Los Angeles. The revised restrictions led to at least one huge party that I noticed via social media. Fox LA (May 9) happened to cover it:

The Los Angeles Police Department issued a citywide tactical alert Saturday night after a Cypress Park party swelled to 1,500 to 2,000 people.

Officers were called in to disperse the crowd. The party was held on Riverside Drive near the transition from the northbound Arroyo Seco Parkway (110) and the northbound Golden State (5) Freeway near the Los Angeles River.

The one advantage of this party was that it was outside. Of course, people arrived at this party in groups via vehicles so there is that. Anyways, I really doubt that this was the only significant party that took place in Los Angeles over Mother's Day weekend. Will Los Angeles face another bump in cases in the next month? Perhaps, but hopefully not as we're approaching herd immunity.

Los Angeles Times (May 10) reports:

Los Angeles County could reach herd immunity from the coronavirus among adults and the oldest teenagers by mid- to late July, another milestone that underscores the region’s rapid recovery from the pandemic.

Herd immunity, sometimes referred to as community immunity, occurs when enough people have been inoculated or have obtained natural immunity to protect the larger population against the virus.

I previously wrote that I felt California would get to their vaccination targets between August - October as I was skeptical that California would be able to average 6 months of 300,000 vaccinations a day that are needed to get to a July target. So reading that California would get to herd immunity by late July, I was thinking that I was guilty of not trusting California's ability to average 300,000 vaccinations a day through the first half of 2021. 

Then I noticed a difference in wording. The above Los Angeles Times article is based on herd immunity, which also includes natural immunity. It looks like my August - October target on vaccinations may still hold as a solid timeframe. Per the LA Times tracker, it looks like we were averaging less than 200,000 up to the start of March and then got to 300,000 by mid-March. California peaked at 400,000 by early April and then has started to decline. California is currently at a seven day average of 234,034. As of May 10th, California has done 32 million shots. If we just assume all those shots happened starting February 1st, California is averaging about 326,000 a day. Over the necessary 300,000, but then against the current seven day average is at 234,034 so that 326,000 average is dropping. We're probably closer to August; however, versus October.

But let's say this: herd immunity will be reached by mid- to late July and vaccination targets will follow around August. That leaves about 2.5 months for another wave to hit. On the other hand, I'd assume another wave would look more like what happened during our first wave versus what happened over the holidays.