Coronavirus: Brain Issues?

On July 7 and July 21, I looked at the health issues that result from coronavirus even after "full" recovery from the virus. Both posts focused on respiratory issues of those who had survived the virus. There are now reports about brain disorders. Both studies come out of the UK.

UCL's Institute of Neurology Study

The Guardian (Jul 8) reports:

Neurologists are on Wednesday publishing details of more than 40 UK Covid-19 patients whose complications ranged from brain inflammation and delirium to nerve damage and stroke. In some cases, the neurological problem was the patient’s first and main symptom.

The cases, published in the journal Brain, revealed a rise in a life-threatening condition called acute disseminated encephalomyelitis (Adem), as the first wave of infections swept through Britain. At UCL’s Institute of Neurology, Adem cases rose from one a month before the pandemic to two or three per week in April and May. 

Coronavirus: more data on mutation

In late June, I looked into research that said a coronavirus mutation might be causing it to become more contagious or even more deadly. This was based on a study from the Los Alamos National Laboratory. The findings from that research were recently published. Since I am unlikely to understand any of it, I'll go with what some news articles have to say.

The Los Angeles Times (Jul 2) reports on the mutation:

The newer version has a mutation that alters the so-called spike protein the virus uses to enter human cells. The team of scientists who found it say the change probably makes the virus more infectious, which would explain why it was able to overtake its predecessor from China.

However, independent researchers said that assessment was premature and cited other factors that could explain its rapid spread.

. . . Even so, the patients with the newer coronavirus variant were no sicker than the patients with the earlier version of the virus.

Coronavirus: Indonesia and Eucalyptus Necklaces?

The first cases of coronavirus in Indonesia were documented in early March. Lock downs were imposed, but from what I read were mainly applied to Jakarta. What I do find interesting is how few cases there are in the country when compared to the United States.

Current Situation

The Guardian (Jul 12) reported:

The country has so far recorded more than 74,000 cases and 3,535 deaths from the virus, though it is feared that this could be a vast underestimate. While testing rates have improved, they remain among the lowest in the world.

. . . Researchers fear there is a lack of awareness among the public in some areas. “One study in Jakarta [suggests some people] think they have a low risk of getting infected. There is a misconception,” said [Prof Pandu Riono, an infectious disease expert at the University of Indonesia].

Defund the Police Movement: Why not look at pension costs?

With the death of George Floyd, protesters have galvanized around the concept of Defund the Police. This movement ranges from opinions that go from reallocating budget resources to the idea that we should abolish the police department. I think getting rid of the police department is a rather dumb idea, but I do support the idea that budget resources need to be reallocated. What should be the first budget line item that needs discussion? Pensions, of course.

KCRW has an article up about police political power in California and has this brief quote about pensions:

Then, 20 years ago [Proposition 172 that dealt with public safety], the full-scale police looting of municipal budgets began, with retirement enhancements allowing officers to retire at age 50 and claim huge pensions. These pension boosts were both retroactive and permanent, and included easily-abused rules that allowed cops to spike their pensions astronomically. Current LAPD Chief Michel Moore briefly retired and exploited one pension provision to pocket $1.27 million.

Coronavirus: new update on health problems after surviving

As time passes since the start of this virus, there are more and more studies coming out about potential longer term health problems for those who survive the virus.

Reuters (Jun 26) reported on two studies:

While coronavirus symptoms typically resolve in two or three weeks, an estimated 1 in 10 experience prolonged symptoms, Dr. Helen Salisbury of the University of Oxford wrote in the British Medical Journal on Tuesday.

. . . “If you previously ran 5k three times a week and now feel breathless after a single flight of stairs, or if you cough incessantly and are too exhausted to return to work, then the fear that you may never regain your previous health is very real,” she wrote.

Dr. Igor Koralnik, chief of neuro-infectious diseases at Northwestern Medicine, reviewed current scientific literature and found about half of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 had neurological complications, such as dizziness, decreased alertness, difficulty concentrating, disorders of smell and taste, seizures, strokes, weakness and muscle pain.

Libya: from proxy war to regional war?

Libya currently appears to be a proxy war with Turkey on one side (Government of National Accord in Tripoli) and Egypt / Russia on the other side (Libyan National Army in Benghazi). Egypt has supplied weapons. The Russian's support has long been believed to be via the Wagner Group, which employs mercenaries. Turkey has recently stepped in with Syrian militia. With Turkey's support, the GNA was able to push the LNA away from Tripoli. The intent of the GNA is to push further east. This is causing Egypt to start rattling their sabers, holding military exercises on the border of Libya. The question that seems to be floated right now is could we see an actual war between Egypt and Turkey that centers around Libya? Of course, how Russia would fit into this war is yet to be known.

Goals and Fears of Egypt and Turkey

The Christian Science Monitor (Jul 10) nicely sums up the goals and fears of both Egypt and Turkey.

Here are the goals of Turkey

. . . The GNA coalition includes the Muslim Brotherhood – which has ideological ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP party – and other Islamists, the last remnants of the movements Turkey has spent the past decade trying to prop up across the Arab world.

. . . But Libyan observers say its main prize is a maritime border agreement signed with the GNA that gives Turkey exclusive rights to oil and gas exploration off the Libyan coast.

Coronavirus: Is the CDC's CFR % even realistic?

On Tuesday, I wrote a post looking at a couple projections that were made regarding the CFR % and IFR % of coronavirus. This is what the CDC estimate was via a Reason article:

According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the current "best estimate" for the fatality rate among Americans with COVID-19 symptoms is 0.4 percent. The CDC also estimates that 35 percent of people infected by the COVID-19 virus never develop symptoms. Those numbers imply that the virus kills less than 0.3 percent of people infected by it—far lower than the infection fatality rates (IFRs) assumed by the alarming projections that drove the initial government response to the epidemic, including broad business closure and stay-at-home orders.

Here we have the CDC saying the CFR % is 0.4%. I think the general consensus is that the CFR % for the seasonal flu is 0.1%. This indicates that coronavirus is 4x more deadly than the seasonal flu.

Coronavirus: Infection Fatality Rate Estimates for the United States

How many people die when infected with coronavirus? That is one of the current debates. And I'll be looking at various estimates, but before doing so let's look into the three different types of percentages that are discussed:

1. Mortality rate: percentage of total population that die from a disease (including those who don't get the virus at all).

2. Infection fatality rate (IFR): percentage of those who got the disease and died. This includes some level of estimate as it will include people who never got tested.

3. Case fatality rate (CFR): percentage of those who tested positive for the virus and die.

Based on what I've read, I've always went with the idea that the case fatality rate was at 1%.

Recently, I read a couple more recent estimates.

Coronavirus: Los Angeles protests and bars

There are arguments out there that recent protests across the country did not result in the spread of the coronavirus. Yet news out of Los Angeles may indicate a different story.

Fox News (Jul 3) reports:

Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday that public protests are likely causing the number of citywide coronavirus cases to spike, just two days after claiming there wasn't "any conclusive evidence" showing a connection between the two.

. . . He claimed he'd consulted with Dr. Barbara Ferrer, LA County's director of public health, and determined the protests were in fact contributing to the spread of the virus.

Current US Oil Production Collapse, Future Global Oil Spike?

US OIL PRODUCTION COLLAPSE?

Art Berman (Jun 18) has an article up on OilPrice where he forecasts that US oil production will decline from 12.5 mb/d to less than 8 mb/d by mid-2021. His argument, that probably everyone who follows the oil market can assume, is that it is driven by declining rig counts. In November 2018, rig counts hit 888. Since then, rig counts were in a steady decline throughout 2019, which then went into quick decline starting in late March 2020. By June, rig counts had dropped to less than 200.

Here's what he has to say about rig counts and production:

It takes several months between an upward price signal and a signed contract for a drilling rig. It takes another 9-12 months from starting a well to first production for tight oil wells. With pad drilling, usually all wells on the pad must be drilled before bringing in a crew to frack the wells.

. . . Approximately 600 rigs are needed to maintain 7 mmb/d of tight oil and 12.5 mmb/d of U.S. production.

. . . After the last oil-price collapse, it took 2.5 years for tight oil rig count to increase from 193 in May 2016 to 618 in November 2018 . . .  There were thousands of DUCs during the last oil-price collapse in 2014-2017 but they didn’t have much effect on production decline.

Coronavirus: In the US, death numbers are declining, but what about long term health problems?

CORONAVIRUS DEATHS DECLINE: DEMOGRAPHICS DRIVEN?

I was scanning Yahoo (Jun 18) and came across an interesting article about declining deaths due to coronavirus. One of my daily web surfing duties is to check out Worldometer and I've definitely noticed that the US deaths during the first half of June were coming in below 1,000 per day. The journalist of this article points out that the lower deaths is being driven by a demographic shift in who is getting infected. That is, younger people are now more likely to test positive for the virus:

There is some data to support this theory. In March, the median age of all Floridians who tested positive for COVID-19 was around 60; since then, the median age has fallen to about 35. A full three-quarters of Florida residents with COVID-19 are now younger than 50.

In Arizona, meanwhile, residents under 45 accounted for about 40 percent of all COVID-19 cases two months ago. Today they represent more than 56 percent of the state’s cases.

Similar trend lines are emerging in Texas, Georgia, California and other states. In Georgia, 53 percent of new cases on June 16 were of people under 40 years old, up from 34.5 percent on June 2. In California, the share of people under 35 with COVID-19 has increased by 15 percentage points over the last month (to 44 percent), while the share of cases over 50 has fallen by the same amount (to 30 percent).

Coronavirus: What's Happening In Haiti?

On March 19th, the first two cases of coronavirus were detected in Haiti. What has happened since that point? I didn't find many recent articles about Haiti while searching the Internet, but I did come across a couple, which I'll discuss below.

At least per Worldometer, the COVID-19 case count is around 6,000. Now, of course, at this point we can assume the actual case count is much higher. And even though the case count is no doubt far higher, news reports are actually indicating that there might be some good news for the country.

Libya: Russia and Oil

With the Libyan National Army (LNA) having to retreat from Tripoli, one obviously question was what move would the Russians make. I wondered if Russia would do anything about protecting the oil fields from the Government of National Accord (GNA) control. It looks like we have the answer. They plan to control the oil fields.

Voice of America (Jun 26) reports:

Russian and other foreign mercenaries have entered Libya's largest oil field, the country's National Oil Corp. said Friday, describing the development as an attempt to thwart the resumption of halted oil production in the war-torn country.

. . . While Haftar's forces control Libya's oil crescent, the Tripoli government in the west controls the national Central Bank reserves, mostly drawn from oil income. Although Libya has Africa's largest oil reserves, it has been unable to export oil since Haftar's blockade started in January, costing the state corporation over $6 billion in lost revenue. Libya was producing over 1.2 million barrels per day before the shutdown.