Part 2 of 2: General Soleimani: killed on January 3rd, 2020

This is part 2 of my discussion around the death of General Soleimani. Part 1 looked at the death of Soleimani, why it might be good policy and why the US took this action now.

MIGHT IRAN LEADERSHIP BE REJOINCING

Part of me thinks that Iran's political leadership is relieved that Soleimani was killed. Why? Back in May 2019, The Daily Beast tossed out this random speculation:

If Soleimani’s behavior is prelude to something, it’s probably not retirement but a future political career.

That appeared to be nothing, but speculation. Yet it is something to consider as Soleimani's wealth and power was growing. It is hard to believe that Iran's political leadership wasn't concerned.



Here are some of the actions that Soleimani had taken recently to expand his wealth and power:

OIL

Back in November 2017, there was discussions about building an oil pipeline between Iraq and Iran. I don't currently know if this pipeline was ever built, but at the time Reuters had the following to say about it:

Even though discussions between Baghdad and Tehran have been conducted between oil ministry officials and the Chamber of Commerce, the Revolutionary Guards are poised to step in. “Any oil transaction between Iran and Iraq should be approved by the Revolutionary Guards, not the oil ministry.” said Reza Mostafavi Tabatabaei, president of London-based ENEXD, a firm involved in the energy equipment business in the Middle East.

IRAQ, LEBANON, SYRIA, YEMEN

Back in December 2017, Newsweek via Yahoo stated:

Tehran exerts enormous influence on an expanse that stretches from Lebanon on the Mediterranean Sea, over the Levantine steppe of Syria and Iraq and down to Yemen. That influence stemmed from Iran’s creation of powerful Shiite proxies in key countries in the region, which Tehran had been able to mobilize to its advantage—and to Saudi Arabia’s chagrin—especially since the Arab Spring revolutions in 2011. 

HAMAS

Also in December 2017, Reuters reported:

Similarly, Qassem Soleimani, the head of the branch of the Guards that oversees operations outside of Iran’s borders pledged the Islamic Republic’s “complete support for Palestinian Islamic resistance movements” after phone calls with commanders from Islamic Jihad and the Izz al-Deen Qassam brigades, the armed wing of the Hamas movement, on Monday according to Sepah News, the news site of the Guards.

AFRICA

In June 2019, the Telegraph UK wrote:

Iran is setting up a network of terror cells in Africa to attack US and other Western targets in retaliation for Washington’s decision to impose sanctions against Tehran, according to Western security officials. The new terror network has been established on the orders of Qassem Suleimani, the head of the Quds Force, the elite section of Iran’s Republican Guard Corps that has responsibility for overseas operations.

From the above, you can easily see that Soleimani was expanding Iran's reach and power. This was all being orchestrated by him. I could see how in Tehran there might be concern about this.

WHAT MIGHT IRAN'S RESPONSE BE?

Even if Tehran is secretly rejoicing, they have to take action, which they did do to a small extent by sending more than a dozen missiles at two Iraqi bases housing U.S. forces. He was the head of the Quds Force. If no action is taken, and soon, what might the Quds Force do to Tehran? Their leader is killed by the Americans and the Tehran government becomes passive? This is likely political unsustainable. So I think the Iranians will do something beyond sending missiles at two Iraqi bases, which I think was more of a quick patch to temporarily satisfy the Quds Force.

I quoted a Bloomberg article in part 1 of this 2 part series that Iran is in a weaken state so I think this claim of World War III being around the corner is stupid. Iran's action is likely to be more mild then launching troops into Iraq and Saudi Arabia or shutting down the Strait of Hormuz.

Another reason I think World War III is off the table is that we know via this January2018 article from Maclean's that the leadership of Iran is corrupt.

But the IRGC also controls most of Iran’s internet telecom bandwith, and its subsidiaries include major corporate entities in Iran’s oil and gas industry, the banking and insurance sector, and mining and construction. The IRGC owns soccer teams and hotels. The capital-flush Bonyad Taavon Sepah investment outfit is owned and run by IRGC commanders. 

The above is specifically about the military, but I have to suspect that other parts of the government are just as corrupt. Would anyone who is taking money off the top want to go to war with the US? If they lost that war, there goes their wealth. They have to be thinking about this in their calculations.

A thought that is being brought up by Bloomberg TV is a cyber attack against the US banking or energy industries.

I could also see Iran (via the Houthis perhaps) taking the chance of sending a few drones into Saudi Arabia. That might be risky considering the environment, but they might hope that this action would be considered as reasonable tit-for-tat.

If there is a proxy attack, I suspect that such an attack might come via Africa against Western assets or via Hamas against Israel.

I've also read articles that indicate the Trump properties might get targeted.