Fox News (Jul 3) reports:
Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said Wednesday that public protests are likely causing the number of citywide coronavirus cases to spike, just two days after claiming there wasn't "any conclusive evidence" showing a connection between the two.
. . . He claimed he'd consulted with Dr. Barbara Ferrer, LA County's director of public health, and determined the protests were in fact contributing to the spread of the virus.
Mayor Garcetti is basically passing the buck here. He states that Dr. Ferrer believes that the protests resulted in the spread of the virus. Can he really politically say that he personally believes that the protests caused the spread of the virus? That might not sit well with his voters.
Of course, Fox News might be leaving out part of the story.
The Los Angeles Times (Jun 23) stated:
Coronavirus infections among Los Angeles police officers spiked in recent weeks, reflecting a broader increase in cases regionally and raising fresh questions about the role of protests in the spread.
Police officials have said that officers were exposed on skirmish lines as they worked to disperse screaming crowds. Protesters say officers recklessly arrested people en masse without wearing masks, exposing not just themselves but others.
In the last week, positive cases within the LAPD workforce jumped from 170 to 206, Chief Michel Moore told the civilian Police Commission on Tuesday.
“This was a 21% increase and is about twice the rate of our historic rate of change over the history of the pandemic,” he said.
Is Dr. Ferrer making a determination based off of police infections? The one thing people in Los Angeles know (even if we just saw photos or watched the local news) is that the protesters were wearing masks while the police were not. On the other hand, who infected the police? It is possible they got it from each other. It is also possible that protesters who were shouting at police were infected and passed the virus to the police.
Also, perhaps the protests themselves did not cause the spread of the virus, but I do wonder what happened before and after the daily protests ended? Were masks worn while friends met up to go and leave the protests? Did various protesters interact at restaurants and coffee houses without masks? What about all the complaints around how the arrests were handled?
To me, it might be a bit difficult to determine what drove the current spike in the virus as businesses began to start to re-open around the same time as the protests. I suppose a very good contact tracing study needs to be seen on the subject.
I would say the last significant protest in Los Angeles occurred on June 14 when Black Lives Matter held a march in Hollywood. In some ways, it was a Black Lives Matter and Pride Day event. I just want to mention that, because another significant wave might be hitting Los Angeles over the next week or so. If protests (and reopening) played a role in the current growth in Los Angeles infections, we should see cases skyrocket in the next couple of days due to this LAist (Jun 28) factoid:
On June 20, the day after bars were allowed to reopen in L.A. County, about 500,000 people decided to go out for a drink, according to the Department of Public Health.
Compare that to the days or yore, before the COVID-19 pandemic (remember that?), when about 700,000 people went out to nightlife spots such as bars, breweries, wineries, and lounges every weekend.
This type of behavior went on for two weekends before California put a stop to on June 28th, Sunday. Yeah, I say, it is unlikely that very many people were wearing masks at bars.
Note: One thing I've seen on social media is how it must be those few California Republicans who refuse to wear masks and keep social distancing that is causing the spread of the virus. Surely, 71% of those who go to bars (500K of 700K) aren't Republicans.
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