Libya: Libyan National Army falling back from Tripoli

In my reports on Libya, I've always been skeptical of Khalifa Haftar's attempt to take Tripoli. It just seemed like an over-stretch by the Libyan National Army (LNA). This strategy doesn't appear to have ended well for Haftar. Reuters has the latest:

Forces loyal to Libya’s internationally recognised government took the last stronghold of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar near Tripoli on Friday and advanced further south, capping the sudden collapse of his 14-month offensive on the capital.

. . . Located in the hills southeast of Tripoli, Tarhouna had functioned as a forward base for Haftar’s assault on the capital. Its swift fall suggests his foreign supporters were less willing to sustain his offensive once Turkey intervened.

It has raised questions over Haftar’s predominant position in eastern Libya though few other figures there appear capable of holding together the coalition of forces he has assembled into the LNA.



From there, Al Jazeera reports:

Libyan renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar has backed a ceasefire in Libya to take effect from Monday, Egypt's president announced after talks in Cairo.

. . . Meanwhile, forces loyal to Libya's UN-recognised government said they launched an offensive on Saturday to seize the strategic city of Sirte.

"The air force has carried out five strikes in the outskirts of Sirte," slain dictator Moamer Kadhafi's hometown and the last major settlement before the traditional boundary between Libya's west and east, GNA spokesman Mohamad Gnounou said.

"Orders have been given to our forces to begin their advance and to systematically attack all rebel positions," he added. 

We know that the Turkey has supported Tripoli's Government of National Accord (GNA) while Russia has backed the LNA. I guess notch a victory to Turkey in this proxy war. It will be interesting to find out why Russia backed down. The question is will they continue to back down and allow the GNA to take Sirte or even southern Libya where there are oil fields.

As Reuters questions, will someone attempt to over-throw Haftar. Reuters argues this isn't likely. I argue how can he stay in power after wasting 14 months fighting a useless attempt to take Tripoli. I will say that someone will attempt to take him out. That would result in chaos in western Libya. Of course, if Tripoli began to march on Benghazi, I suspect they would deal with the same resistance that faced Haftar in Tripoli and there would be consolidation around a single leader.

If the GNA is thinking rationally, they'll probably agree with a ceasefire (maybe after they've taken back Sirte and southern Libya).