Libya: from proxy war to regional war?

Libya currently appears to be a proxy war with Turkey on one side (Government of National Accord in Tripoli) and Egypt / Russia on the other side (Libyan National Army in Benghazi). Egypt has supplied weapons. The Russian's support has long been believed to be via the Wagner Group, which employs mercenaries. Turkey has recently stepped in with Syrian militia. With Turkey's support, the GNA was able to push the LNA away from Tripoli. The intent of the GNA is to push further east. This is causing Egypt to start rattling their sabers, holding military exercises on the border of Libya. The question that seems to be floated right now is could we see an actual war between Egypt and Turkey that centers around Libya? Of course, how Russia would fit into this war is yet to be known.

Goals and Fears of Egypt and Turkey

The Christian Science Monitor (Jul 10) nicely sums up the goals and fears of both Egypt and Turkey.

Here are the goals of Turkey

. . . The GNA coalition includes the Muslim Brotherhood – which has ideological ties to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s ruling AKP party – and other Islamists, the last remnants of the movements Turkey has spent the past decade trying to prop up across the Arab world.

. . . But Libyan observers say its main prize is a maritime border agreement signed with the GNA that gives Turkey exclusive rights to oil and gas exploration off the Libyan coast.



And Egypt's fears

. . . The animosity between Egypt and Turkey stems from then-General Sisi’s 2013 overthrow of Muslim Brotherhood-backed President Mohamed Morsi.

Egypt and its allies Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Jordan have worked for the past seven years to prevent a Turkish or Islamist foothold in the Arab world, banning the Brotherhood as a terrorist organization in several states.

This is an interesting diplomatic problem that the article argues could use the U.S. to resolve (as President Trump is on good standing with both Erdogan and Sisi). Egypt and Turkey are on the opposite ideological spectrum when it comes to the Muslim Brotherhood. The quote from the article mentions that the Muslim Brotherhood has been pushed out of various countries. So even though Erdogan is on the offensive in Libya, he probably feels like he's been on the defensive since at least 2013.

As for Egypt, they fear that they could be the target of terrorist attacks (as happened after the fall of Gaddafi) via the Muslim Brotherhood. There are also the economic interests that the GNA gave to Turkey (likely to gain some stronger support) in 2019. 

This feels like a tough issue to resolve as even if they just divide the country between the GNA and LNA, one can almost feel what would come next. There would be issues regarding how to split oil revenues between east and west. It does nothing to resolve the conflicting political views between Egypt and Turkey. It almost feels like the resolution would be to attempt to keep a cease fire in place until there is a change in political power in either Turkey or Egypt and see if negotiations could be re-started at that point.

Has Egypt Already Gotten Directly Involved?

Forbes (Jul 9) speculates that Egypt has already gotten involved directly:

On July 4, unidentified warplanes attacked al-Watiya, where Turkey had begun deploying some of its MIM-23 Hawk air defense missiles. The attack came after a two-day visit to Libya by Turkish Defense Minister Hulusi Akar and Chief of Staff Yasar Gular, a visit that underscored Turkey’s military commitment to western Libya and likely frustrated Haftar and his foreign backers.

One report states that French-made jets, possibly Dassault Rafales, bombed al-Watiya. If true, that would strongly indicate the attack was carried out by Egypt, which possesses a fleet of those formidable multirole jets.

Russia's Role

A speculation on why Russia / Wagner Group went to secure the oil fields in Southern Libya was that they were attempting to force a truce between the LNA and GNA. Maybe along side Egypt's saber rattling, this has worked for now.

The Guardian (Jul 10) reports:

The Libyan National Oil Company has announced the resumption of oil production and exports after a nearly six-month shutdown that has cost the country $6bn (£4.7bn) in lost revenues and deepened the country’s civil war.

“The NOC has lifted force majeure on all oil exports from Libya,” the company said in a statement, adding that production would take time to return to previous levels. A first ship was due to start loading crude from the oil port al-Sidra in the east of the country, the statement said.

. . . The fighting between the east and the west is paused after the GNA, backed by Turkish-supplied forces and air defences, decisively lifted Haftar’s siege of Tripoli two months ago. Eastern forces have warned Turkey not to try to enter the coastal port of Sirte. The UN is proposing a demilitarised zone as part of a ceasefire

Sometimes the need for money can solve rivalries? Well, at least temporarily until one side or both sides need a greater slice of the pie in order to keep up their wanted or needed standard of living.

Random Notes

Playing in this whole Libya mess is that France supports the LNA, which puts them at odds with NATO ally Turkey.

Chad mercenaries have been supporting the GNA. So one has to keep an eye on other African players that were involved in Libya.

I have speculated that I believe that LNA's General Khalifa Haftar leadership will be challenged at some point. He has one large failure, his inability to take Tripoli. Perhaps I'm wrong here. Egypt would seem to have a strong reason to keep the east stable. Maybe some money is being handed out to potential political rivals. But I say this is something that could still occur.

The argument has been made that the U.S. has played a largely neutral role though perhaps having concerns around Russia's control of the oil. Will President Trump make any moves here? Or President Biden? Unless something big explodes in Libya, I say that the U.S. will stay quiet until after the elections.