Thursday, March 12, 2020

Coronavirus: Indonesia

The Jakarta Post reported back on February 11th that a Harvard study stated that there had to be a coronavirus outbreak in Indonesia based on travel between Wuhan and Indonesia.

Fast forward to March and according to South China Morning Post, the first cases of the virus were finally announced in the country. Interestingly, the cases are related to contact to a Japanese citizen who appears to live in Malaysia versus a Chinese citizen:

Indonesian authorities have swung into action to track down dozens of close contacts of the country’s first two coronavirus patients, a mother and daughter from a city south of Jakarta who contracted the disease from a Japanese citizen visiting from Malaysia.


The Japanese woman met the daughter (a dance coach) at a dance club on February 14th.
The daughter went to the hospital on February 16th.
She was not tested and then returned on the 26th.
On the 28th, the Japanese woman made a call saying she had the virus.
There are 50 members who go to this dance club.
The mother and daughter were officially confirmed to have the virus on Monday, March 2nd.

Reuters then reported:

Indonesia confirmed on Friday that two more people had tested positive for the coronavirus, taking the total of confirmed cases to four.

The two Indonesians were in their 30s and had been tested after being in contact with the first two confirmed cases, Health Ministry official Achmad Yurianto told a news briefing.

One question that doesn't seem to be addressed is: did the daughter self-isolate between February 16th and February 28th. Also, did the health professionals that she saw on the 16th and 26th wearing proper protective equipment?

From there, it began to expand. Straits Times reported on March 10th:

Indonesia confirmed eight cases of coronavirus infections on Tuesday (Mar 10) as the health ministry stepped up efforts to curb community spread.

Indonesia now has 27 confirmed cases, 21 of them disclosed in the last two days alone. The authorities have also identified a possible new cluster from Case 14, who had been ill for a few days before being admitted to hospital.

So Case 14 is a new cluster that doesn't appear to have any ties to the dance club. The article mentions that he could have been sick for 3 days before going to the hospital. I believe 6 of the 27 cases are tied directly to the dance club.

One has to wonder how many additional clusters will start to pop up.

As with the United States, Indonesia is having problems ramping up testing. Science Magazine reports:

Today, “It’s statistically impossible that we only have two cases,” says Ahmad Utomo of the Stem Cell and Cancer Research Institute.

So far, all testing for COVID-19 has taken place at the health ministry’s National Institute of Health Research and Development (Balitbangkes). The lab can handle 1000 samples per day, says Ahmad Yurianto of the health ministry’s Disease Control and Prevention Directorate. Since the start of the epidemic, Balitbangkes has only tested 333 people, however.

Utomo says the ministry’s testing criteria are unclear and nontransparent. So far, its COVID-19 guidelines only called for testing those who show symptoms and have traveled to affected countries.

. . . In response to the criticism, [Ahmad Yurianto of the health ministry’s Disease Control and Prevention Directorate] today said in an interview with BBC that Indonesia would loosen the criteria by also testing people who have symptoms but no travel history. And he has promised that the ministry will make testing capability available to 10 provinces.

Does this vaguely sound like the situation in the United States.

1. It makes no sense that we only have 1010 cases (writing this on Tuesday, March 10th).

2. The United States has tested only around 4,384 as of Monday, March 9th.

3. The United States was for saying for the longest time to only test individuals who had traveled to specific countries.

Indonesia is behind. The question will be are there more cases like the dance coach who were turned away, but really do have (or did have) the virus. And how many people did they infect?

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