Libya: Russia and Oil

With the Libyan National Army (LNA) having to retreat from Tripoli, one obviously question was what move would the Russians make. I wondered if Russia would do anything about protecting the oil fields from the Government of National Accord (GNA) control. It looks like we have the answer. They plan to control the oil fields.

Voice of America (Jun 26) reports:

Russian and other foreign mercenaries have entered Libya's largest oil field, the country's National Oil Corp. said Friday, describing the development as an attempt to thwart the resumption of halted oil production in the war-torn country.

. . . While Haftar's forces control Libya's oil crescent, the Tripoli government in the west controls the national Central Bank reserves, mostly drawn from oil income. Although Libya has Africa's largest oil reserves, it has been unable to export oil since Haftar's blockade started in January, costing the state corporation over $6 billion in lost revenue. Libya was producing over 1.2 million barrels per day before the shutdown.



The article addresses two reasons why the Russians would send their mercenaries to the oil fields.

First: the Tripoli government gains revenues from oil sales. As the above quote states, the state corporation (I assume is the National Oil Corp) has lost $6 billion in oil revenues which is used to support the GNA. Is Russia attempting to use oil as a ploy to force a truce between the GNA and LNA?

Second: the article addresses the idea that Russia just wants to keep this oil field off line. We know that OPEC+ agreed to cut 9.7 million barrels of oil back in April. If Russia can keep this oil field off line for as long as possible, it helps stabilize the price of oil to some degree.

A third reason that isn't discussed, is that maybe Russia and Egypt have come to an agreement in the support of their ally, the LNA. Is Russia going to provide support in the south and Egypt will provide support in Sirte? Now admittedly Al-Monitor (Jun 25) and The Guardian (Jun 26) were very skeptical of the idea that Egypt would provide direct military support. Perhaps Russia is allowing the LNA to concentrate their efforts on protecting Sirte and Egypt will make sure that the LNA has plenty of military weapons sent their way. To me, there has to be some coordination going on between Egypt, Russia and the LNA.