Coronavirus: Sweden's Fail?

Did Sweden do the right thing when it comes to their policy towards the coronavirus pandemic - not doing a full shutdown of the country? It looks like the general consensus is that it has failed. National Review (May 30) reported:

Swedish government officials said lockdowns could do little to save lives over the long term and that their more lax approach would let their society reach herd immunity more quickly and lessen the economic pain the country would endure. “About 30 percent of people in Stockholm have reached a level of immunity,” Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter, the Swedish ambassador to the United States, told NPR on April 26. “We could reach herd immunity in the capital as early as next month.”

But a recent study found that just 7.3 percent of Stockholm residents tested positive for coronavirus antibodies at the end of April. “I think herd immunity is a long way off, if we ever reach it,” Bjorn Olsen, professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University, told Reuters.

And it’s not clear Sweden’s economy will be better off than Norway’s this year. “Economists at Swedish bank SEB estimate Sweden’s GDP will drop 6.5 per cent this year, about the same as the US and Germany, but a little better than Norway and ahead of 9–10 per cent falls in Finland and Denmark, all of which have had lockdowns,” the Financial Times reported May 10. A Reuters poll from April found economists predicting the Scandinavian economies would all fare about the same in 2020.

Coronavirus: Iran Dealing with a Second Wave?

I've largely kept up with what is occurring in Iran by reading through the tweets of someone who goes by Ali. He seems to have a good grip of what is occurring in the country even though he lives in the UK. Based on his tweets, it looks like Iran is going through a second wave of infections. Since the United States is starting to open up, it might be wise to see what is going on in Iran.

I'm going to trace this second wave from early April to now.

Bloomberg (April 8) wrote this after the country began to move away from their lock down.

Iran is gradually allowing people back to work amid the worst coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East, in what could be a test case for other countries attempting to balance economic revival with public health . . . But Iran is also especially vulnerable to a protracted work stoppage. Three-quarters of working Iranians are self-employed or toil for little pay in small enterprises, said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech who studies Iran’s economy. 

. . . Restrictions in Tehran will only be relaxed in a week’s time, according to Rouhani. Restaurants, cinemas, schools, museums and shopping malls will remain closed. A ban on travel between provinces and cities will also stay, and the majority of people are still expected to remain at home. 

. . .  Then as Iran’s working week began on Saturday morning, central districts in Tehran were again humming with commuters who squeezed into metro carriages and buses even though the city is yet to ease social distancing rules. The pandemic is expected to add five million to Iran’s unemployed, more than 20% of the workforce, according to a March 18 government report. Parliament’s research center estimates the crisis will trigger an 18.5% contraction in the economy, which had improved after shrinking more than 9% in 2019 as Trump’s campaign to force Iran into new talks on its nuclear program shuttered critical oil sales. 

Coronavirus: Don't believe the numbers out of Iran

I last looked at Iran and coronavirus back on March 22nd. I've largely kept up with what is occurring in Iran by reading through the tweets of someone who goes by the name Ali. He seems to have a good grip of what is occurring in the country even though he lives in the UK. Based on his tweets, it looks like Iran is going through a second wave of infections. I will look into that second wave in a future post, but I figured I'd take a look at official versus estimated COVID-19 death counts first.

As of Friday, May 22nd, Worldometer has the official death count at 7,300. To provide some context, RearClearPolitics has a tracker that includes flu deaths. According to the site, using WHO 2017 data, there were 3,156 deaths related to the flu. Based on that info, COVID-19 deaths are 131% higher than flu deaths for the country. Though admittedly for a country of around 82 million that is still a small number.

Coronavirus: Potential Deterioration of African/Chinese Relations

Back in August 2019, I wrote about China's growing ties with Africa. I took this quote from Forbes (May 4, 2019):

“As a South African, I've seen China's activities on the continent up close,” says Ted Bauman, Senior Research Analyst at Banyan Hill Publishing. “It's clear that China's primary goal with foreign investment is geopolitical, not economic. The most consequential investments are undertaken by state owned companies, not by Chinese private capital. They tend to focus on infrastructure like highways, ports and dams, and on public networks like the electrical grid.”

The trouble is that “these investments help to bind countries to China politically, and through debt obligations,” explains Bauman.

Coronavirus: Another don't believe the numbers - Mexico

Mexico, similar to Indonesia, is a country with a significant population that has far fewer coronavirus cases than the United States. Worldometer as of Sunday has the total cases in Mexico at 47,144. (Indonesia was at 17,514.) The United States in comparison was at 1,526,807. Is the United States really that worse off than Mexico? One interest data point is that Mexico has conducted only 1,271 tests per million while the United States is at 35,628. So there is a strong possibility of hidden cases in Mexico.

Recently, three different news organizations took a look at what is going on in Mexico in terms of under-reporting.

The New York Times (May 8) was first on the case:

Mexico City officials have tabulated more than 2,500 deaths from the virus and from serious respiratory illnesses that doctors suspect were related to Covid-19, according to the data, which was reviewed by The New York Times. Yet the federal government is reporting about 700 in the area, which includes Mexico City and the municipalities on its outskirts.

. . . The government says Mexico has been faring better than many of the world’s largest countries, and on Monday its Covid-19 czar estimated that the final death toll would be around 6,000 people.

“We have flattened the curve,” Hugo López-Gatell, the health ministry official who has become the face of the country’s response, said this week.

. . . Several experts also questioned Mexico’s assumptions of how quickly the epidemic will pass. Its model shows a sharp rise in infections, followed by a sharp decline. But in almost no other country in the world has there been a rapid decline after a peak.

Coronavirus: Tanzania testing kits detect coronavirus in a fruit?

Per Worldometer, as of Friday (May 8), there were only 59,050 cases of coronavirus in Africa. Even Canada has more reported cases than the whole continent of Africa. One can look at this as a half glass full position and believe that coronavirus is not wide spread in Africa, because Africa learned lessons from Asia, Europe and America. That might be true. My position is that there just isn't enough testing going on to determine the extent of the spread. On a test per million basis, South Africa and Ghana are doing the best at around 5,000 (I'm excluding much smaller countries like Djibouti that doesn't even have a population of 1 million). Yet, many of the countries that rank in the top 20 for the most absolute cases have tested way more than 5,000 per million. (Brazil, Ecuador, India and Mexico have tested fewer people while ranking in the top 20.)

The President tries to trick the system?

Based on all that, I found this claim from the president of Tanzania interesting. From Quartz (May 4) via Yahoo:

[ President John Magufuli], who holds a doctorate in chemistry, said the testers had randomly obtained several non-human samples on animals and fruits which included a sheep, a goat and a pawpaw and the results came out positive. The samples were given human names and ages and were submitted to the country’s National Referral Laboratory to test for coronavirus without the lab technicians knowing the true identity of the samples.

This apparently prompted Magufuli to believe some people who were tested positive for Covid-19 might not have contracted the novel virus after all. “I have always raised my suspicions about how our national lab has been conducting the Covid-19 cases,” he said at an event in Chato in northern-western Tanzania. The president, who has ordered a probe into the country’s testing protocols, insinuated possible interference by unnamed saboteurs.

Al Jazeera (May 5) reported that after these false positives, Magufuli responded by doing the following:

Tanzania has suspended the head of its national health laboratory in charge of coronavirus testing, a day after President John Magufuli questioned the accuracy of the tests. . . The president called for an investigation in what he suspected is a "dirty game" in the laboratory, but did not say where the kits had been imported from. "The equipment or people may be compromised and sometimes it can be sabotage," Magufuli said in a speech broadcast live through state-run Tanzania Broadcasting Corporation (TBC).

Reuters (May 7) via Yahoo counters:

The head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday rejected an assertion by Tanzania's president that coronavirus tests it supplied are faulty . . . "The tests that Tanzania is using, we know they are working very well," John Nkengasong told journalists. The Africa CDC, along with the Jack Ma Foundation, a charity founded by the Chinese billionaire, supplied the tests, Nkengasong said . . . No other countries have made public complaints about the tests.

Okay, Magufuli has a doctorate in chemistry. It doesn't appear like he went to a top ranked university, but he still holds a doctorate. I'm assuming he took his classes seriously. This actually seems like what a sneaky scientist might do just to test out the system. Also, these tests came from China. There are plenty of videos and articles about China sending out faulty personal protective equipment. It is entirely reasonable to assume that maybe they sent out faulty tests. The fact that no other African nation has complained could also be driven by the close ties between Africa and China (an upcoming blog post looks into those ties that just might be coming apart). So yeah, maybe he's correct that there are issues with false positives.

Or maybe he's trying to trick the citizens

But here's the counter-arguments on why he might be making up these charges:

From Quartz Africa (May 1):

With Covid-19 cases on a sharp rise in Tanzania, there is now widespread speculation that three of its lawmakers who died in a space of 11 days might have contracted the virus. It’s a concern which has prompted the country’s leading opposition party Chadema to call for a suspension of parliament.

. . .Ever since the virus found its way into the continent, most African countries have imposed strict measures such as banning public gatherings including closing down churches and mosques to contain the virus. However, Tanzania’s president John Magufuli, who is a Christian, has allowed all places of worship to remain open in the country despite the government at same time promoting physical distancing.

First, 3 members of parliament died within 11 days. Wikipedia states that there are 393 seats in parliament. If 3 members have died from it, how many others in parliament have the virus? That is info I couldn't track down. I failed to mention that Tanzania only has 509 cases and 21 deaths. Maybe one of the outbreaks is in parliament and so 3 of the 21 deaths are tied to parliament. Or maybe there are just way more cases out there that haven't been reported. Now it is still possible that they're dealing with defective tests, but I do bring it up to just question if the number of cases in the country is actually too low. Second, the president hasn't closed down places of worship so he might have an incentive to downplay the number of cases.

There is also this article from World (May 8):

Tanzanian President John Magufuli has questioned the safety of face masks, refused to impose a lockdown, and issued irregular updates on COVID-19 infection rates . . . Tanzania closed down all schools and banned public gatherings in March, but markets, bus stations, and shops remained open. Magufuli also excluded religious activities from the restrictions. “This is time to build our faith and continue praying to God and not depending on face masks,” he said

Okay, I'm going to be honest: I question anyone who says that faith in God will prevent the spread of the virus. Indonesia also made similar claims. And this article just highlights additional locations that are open -- though admittedly schools and public gatherings (other than houses of worship) have been banned (so you can't say that no actions have been taken). Based on this information about what has closed, you might argue that they're adopting Sweden's policy, but Sweden does have plenty of cases and deaths.

The president is also pursuing what might be considered fake medicine. Al Jazeera (May 8) reports:

Tanzania says it has received its first shipment of Madagascar's self-proclaimed, plant-based "cure" for coronavirus, despite warnings from the World Health Organization that its efficacy is unproven.

The announcement on Friday came days after Madagascar said it would begin selling the herbal concoction - known as Covid-Organics - and that several African countries had already put in orders.

The article does say that the plant that is used for this drink does help when it comes to malaria treatment. And the article does mention that other countries are ordering this drink. I just question that you're basing your hope on God and a drink.

My final counter argument comes from BBC (May 4):

Videos of night burials have been circulating on social media in Tanzania causing some to call into question the government's approach to the coronavirus pandemic.

The footage shows the funerals taking place under tight security with people wearing personal protective equipment and very few mourners in attendance.

This just sounds like a country that is trying to hide something. Basically, the article makes the same argument.

What do I think? I lean towards the idea that he's telling the truth and also in denial.

Final judgement: It is hard to say, but I think he's telling the truth on tricking the system. The test kits are faulty; however, that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of cases in the country, which means he's in denial. Both could be true.

Crazy thought: What if the person handling the non-human samples prior to hand off to the testers had the virus and accidentally contaminated these samples?

Could Tanzania's death rate be higher than other countries?

Anyways, if coronavirus does hit Tanzania hard, the country could be facing a harsher reality than most countries. Per Al Jazeera (April 13):

Michel Yao, programme manager for the COVID-19 emergency response at the World Health Organization (WHO)'s Africa regional office, told Al Jazeera that even though not enough studies have been conducted to determine how exactly coronavirus affects those living with immune deficiency disorders such as HIV-AIDS, people suffering from them would likely be more vulnerable to developing serious illness from COVID-19.

HIV also makes individuals more prone to developing tuberculosis (TB), a respiratory illness that Yao said could make the COVID-19 cases in affected populations more severe. According to WHO data, in 2016 the African region accounted for a quarter of new TB cases worldwide.

The article goes on to state that 54% of the those with HIV live in Eastern and Southern Africa.

Coronavirus: Spring Break, Early Warnings, Michael Burry

The blog post is just about putting together some old articles about various coronavirus topics.

During Florida's Spring Break, many had concerns as college students were having fun and saying they weren't all that worried about COVID-19. The New York Times (April 12th) via Yahoo's website wrote about Florida's Spring Break.

The exact number of people who returned from leisure trips to Florida with the coronavirus may never be known. Cases as far away as California and Massachusetts have been linked to the Winter Party Festival, a beachside dance party and fundraiser for the LGBTQ community held March 4-10. Another California man died after going to Orlando for a conference and then to a packed Disney World. Two people went to Disney and later got relatives sick in Florida and Georgia.

The article goes through examples of various individuals who got the virus while in Florida for Spring Break. I think the above quote is key; however. One of the major fears was that Spring Breakers would spread the virus across the country. It is possible that this fear was over-blown and that the country had a lucky break in this regard.

Libya: Is this turning into a proxy war between Russia and Turkey?

I last wrote about Libya on January 16th. Soon after, I started to research and get obsessed with coronavirus. Anyways, at that time, Sirte had fallen to the Libyan National Army. Russia and Turkey appeared to be trying to negotiate a settlement of some sort.

Before going into what the current situation is, here's an Al Jazeera summary of which "foreign actors" are supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) or the Libyan National Army (LNA - or the Libya Arab Armed Forces)

Supporting the GNA

Qatar
Turkey

Supporting the LNA

Egypt
France
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
United Arab Emirates

Somewhat neutral

Italy
United States

The one foreign actor not mentioned is Chad mercenaries/rebels, which I'd say supports the GNA.

Coronavirus: Indonesia has 1 million plus fewer cases than the United States

Indonesia has a population of around 267 million. The US has a population of 333 million. When it comes to coronavirus cases (as of April 27th), Indonesia had 9,096 cases while the US had 1,010,356 cases. The first couple cases were identified in Indonesia at the start of March while at the same time the US had fewer than 200 cases. Is Indonesia really doing that much better than the United States in controlling the spread of the virus?

What is potentially driving this huge discrepancy between Indonesia and the US:

1. Perhaps the spread of the virus is slowed by the fact that Indonesia's population is spread across five main islands with a total of 17,508 islands in total. I couldn't really find anything specific, but perhaps since the outbreak travel between islands have dropped, helping reduce the spread of virus.

Coronavirus: Food Supplies Part 2

In Part 1 of my blog post on food supplies, many of my quotes came from late March and early April. Concerns have only grown throughout the rest of April and early May. Specifically, the concern is around potential shortages of meat driven by supply disruptions. But let's take a quick sidetrack away from meat.

What about non-meat food supplies?

Of course, if shortages of meat occur, that likely means that there will soon be shortages of non-meat items due to demand surges. People have to eat and if they can't eat meat, they're going to have to go to beans, grains, pastas and a variety of other foods. Of course, what about beans and beans . . . fruits and vegetables in general. Could we have supply disruptions here? You bet. CNN (April 11) via MSN wrote this:

More than a million farmworkers aren't hunkered down at home as the coronavirus pandemic paralyzes much of the country.

Their labor -- in fields, orchards and packing plants -- is keeping food on America's tables.

But workers and groups who represent them are sounding an alarm. Their warning: As the virus spreads, many farmworkers are living and working in conditions that put their health particularly at risk.

. . . Living conditions for migrant workers are "chronically and extremely overcrowded," says Asbed of the Coalition of Immokolee Workers. Sometimes, he says, 10-12 people are housed in one single-wide trailer.

We've been reading a lot about coronavirus outbreaks at meat packing plants. When will we start reading about outbreaks at farms?

Coronavirus: Yemen facing a crisis in the making?

So let me be clear that there are barely any confirmed coronavirus cases in Yemen. Per Worldometer, there are only 10 cases in the country. Yet, let's remember that this is a country that is in the middle of a civil war that involves Saudi Arabia/Iran and has resulted in a humanitarian crisis, which might facilitate both the spread and death rate due to this virus. The first case of the virus popped up on Friday, April 10th. Per BBC:

News of the first Covid-19 case came a day after the Saudi-led coalition fighting Houthi rebels in Yemen began a ceasefire, saying it wanted to help stop coronavirus spread and support UN peace efforts.

Yemen's national emergency committee said on Friday that the patient was a 60-year-old man in the southern oil-producing region of Hadramawt.