Before going into what the current situation is, here's an Al Jazeera summary of which "foreign actors" are supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) or the Libyan National Army (LNA - or the Libya Arab Armed Forces)
Supporting the GNA
Qatar
Turkey
Supporting the LNA
Egypt
France
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
United Arab Emirates
Somewhat neutral
Italy
United States
The one foreign actor not mentioned is Chad mercenaries/rebels, which I'd say supports the GNA.
Current Fighting
The LNA has been at the door steps of Tripoli for around a year at this point. And now, the GNA might be pushing back on the LNA. If you have time, Al Jazeera (Apr 22) has a 24 minute video between three individuals talking about Libya. It actually gets a little heated. I think the basic points are:
1. The GNA has pushed the LNA away from Tripoli.
2. The LNA was dependent on militias that aren't very dependable.
3. The GNA has gotten a lot of support from Turkey that is helping their fight.
4. LNA's Khalifa Haftar might be having to deal with push back from his eastern base.
To back up the fact that the LNA is facing difficulties, Libya Observer (Apr 24) reported:
The United Arab Emirates has requested the commander of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) of Sudan, Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, to send military reinforcement to Libya to back warlord Khalifa Haftar’s offensive on Tripoli.
According to a well-informed source, Dagalo . . . agreed to send two armed factions to the north African country, within the efforts of the United Arab Emirates to save its hand in Libya, Khalifa Haftar.
A more recent report from TRT World (May 9) highlights how the GNA is aggressively fighting against the LNA:
Scores of militiamen aligned with warlord Khalifa Haftar were killed in attacks targeting Al-Watiya air base, a Libyan military spokesman said on Saturday.
In a statement, Muhammed Kununu said warplanes of the Libyan government carried out air strikes on Friday on Haftar's forces in the vicinity of the base.
"The attacks resulted in killing and injuring 70 members of Haftar's terrorist militia," the spokesman said.
Russia vs Turkey
Is Libya really just a proxy war at this point in time? Foreign Policy (May 5) writes:
[Mohammad Abu al-Saar] is among the Syrian rebels paid by Turkey to fight alongside the forces of the Government of National Accord (GNA) . . . The GNA is recognized by the United Nations and backed by the Muslim Brotherhood, a transnational group that propagates political Islam with the support of powerful allies such as Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
. . . As Turkey flooded Libya with its Syrian proxies, it also provided state-of-the-art drones and air defense systems. In March, Russia turned to Syria for reinforcements. It roped in its Syrian ally Assad to back its preferred Libyan warlord and began scouting for men willing to render services in a foreign conflict in exchange for cash.
Syrian rebels say the man tasked with leading this recruitment drive was Col. Alexander Zorin, who in 2016 served as the Russian defense ministry’s envoy at the Geneva-based task force on cessation of hostilities in Syria.
So is Libya just turning into a war between Syrian rebels: those who supported Turkey fighting against those who supported Assad?
Also, note the mention of the Muslim Brotherhood. This has been mentioned in previous articles I've read. Egypt's military removed the Muslim Brotherhood from power. Turkey probably doesn't want to lose another ally in North Africa.
Here are a couple more articles about fighting between Turkey and Russia:
Al Monitor (May 8) goes into how child soldiers are being used to support the GNA:
The 40-page document, prepared by Syrians for Truth and Justice and shared exclusively with Al-Monitor, cites sources on the ground in Syria and in Libya who say Syrian teenagers have been recruited and are part of their units in the battlefield . . . The children are among well over 2,000 Syrian rebels believed to have been deployed over the past year via Turkey in support of the Government of National Accord against the eastern warlord Khalifa Hifter, who is backed by Egypt and the United Arab Emirates.
BBC (May 7) looks into the Wagner group, a Russian mercenary group:
Hundreds of mercenaries from Russia's shadowy Wagner Group are operating in Libya, a leaked UN report says . . . It is the first time the UN has confirmed reports of Wagner's involvement in Libya, putting the number of operatives at between 800 and 1,000.
Basically, we can say that there are thousands of Syrians and Russians fighting in Libya right now.
Libyan Oil
Associated Press (Apr 14) via Star Tribune reports:
Powerful tribes loyal to Libya's eastern-based forces seized large export terminals and choked off major pipelines in January, aiming to starve the Tripoli-based government of crucial revenues.
Now this won't prevent Turkey from their continued support of the GNA, but it probably makes life tough for the citizens of Tripoli.
The article also has this, which indicates that LNA forces are being forced out of the western part of Libya.
Tripoli-allied forces said Monday they captured the city of Sabrata, around 75 kilometers (45.5 miles) west of Tripoli, which served as a base for Hifter's forces. They also took the town of Sorman, 60 kilometers (37 miles) west of the capital.
OilPrice (May 6) reports:
Since January 18 when Field Marshal Haftar started the ongoing blockade of all Libyan ports and export terminals, Libyan oil output has been in a freefall. Back in the day the chairman of the Libyan NOC Mustafa Sanalla predicted that if no measures are taken to counteract Haftar, Libya’s oil production would plummet to 72kbpd, all the way from 1.2mbpd in mid-January. It might have seemed a very implausible proposition back in the day, but it turned out to be a prophetic one – as of April 30, Libya’s production stood at 95kbpd.
Well, at least, Libya is doing their part in helping with the oil glut.
The one thing is that oil profits were often used to gain support from various factions in the country. How this serious decline in oil production could impact this balance is something to keep an eye on.
No comments:
Post a Comment