Coronavirus: Iran Dealing with a Second Wave?

I've largely kept up with what is occurring in Iran by reading through the tweets of someone who goes by Ali. He seems to have a good grip of what is occurring in the country even though he lives in the UK. Based on his tweets, it looks like Iran is going through a second wave of infections. Since the United States is starting to open up, it might be wise to see what is going on in Iran.

I'm going to trace this second wave from early April to now.

Bloomberg (April 8) wrote this after the country began to move away from their lock down.

Iran is gradually allowing people back to work amid the worst coronavirus outbreak in the Middle East, in what could be a test case for other countries attempting to balance economic revival with public health . . . But Iran is also especially vulnerable to a protracted work stoppage. Three-quarters of working Iranians are self-employed or toil for little pay in small enterprises, said Djavad Salehi-Isfahani, a professor of economics at Virginia Tech who studies Iran’s economy. 

. . . Restrictions in Tehran will only be relaxed in a week’s time, according to Rouhani. Restaurants, cinemas, schools, museums and shopping malls will remain closed. A ban on travel between provinces and cities will also stay, and the majority of people are still expected to remain at home. 

. . .  Then as Iran’s working week began on Saturday morning, central districts in Tehran were again humming with commuters who squeezed into metro carriages and buses even though the city is yet to ease social distancing rules. The pandemic is expected to add five million to Iran’s unemployed, more than 20% of the workforce, according to a March 18 government report. Parliament’s research center estimates the crisis will trigger an 18.5% contraction in the economy, which had improved after shrinking more than 9% in 2019 as Trump’s campaign to force Iran into new talks on its nuclear program shuttered critical oil sales. 



Interesting how they were planning on leaving restrictions in place in Tehran, but then what appears to be before the restrictions were lifted people were already going about their life. In a way, who can blame them based on the above economic forecast. Similar economic forces are also in the works for us in America.

Radio Farda (April 10) wrote:

Spokesman Kianoush Jahanpour said on April 10 that 1,972 new infections were recorded in the past 24 hours, putting the total at 68,192.

. . . "In the past 24 hours, we have unfortunately seen an increase in cases of disease in five to eight provinces, including Tehran," Jahanpour said.

The announcement comes as Iran is set to reopen what officials call "low-risk" businesses.

So what would likely be too soon to see the start of a second wave due to lifting of restrictions, Iran was already seeing an increase in cases. Perhaps this increase was driven by Persian New Year celebrations.

A month later, Reuters (May 10) reported:

A county in southwestern Iran has been placed under lockdown to prevent the spread of coronavirus, Tasnim news agency reported on Sunday, also quoting the provincial governor as saying there had been a sharp rise in new cases across the province.

Tasnim quoted Gholamreza Shariati, governor of Khuzestan province, which borders Iraq and includes the county of Abadan, as saying people had not been observing social distancing rules.

. . . Offices will be closed and travel restrictions will also apply to nine other counties in oil-rich Khuzestan, Tasnim cited Shariati as saying.

Based on Google, this province has a population of 4.1 million.

One thing I take away from this is that we in the United States should not celebrate short term trend line in cases as we start to lift lockdown orders. As we can see in Iran, it took about a month before restrictions started back up in at least one province.

The New York Times (May 18) reported

Three weeks later, the country has been hit by a new surge of coronavirus cases, according to health officials in some of the eight provinces where the numbers have spiked again. Health experts had predicted this would happen when the government made the call to ease restrictions in late April.

. . . The Health Ministry spokesman, Kianoush Jahangiri, said Monday that 2,294 people had tested positive in previous 24 hours. A day earlier, that number was 1,808.

. . . Last week, at least eight provinces and Tehran, the capital, were declared red zones — areas where new cases are still increasing.

. . . Morteza, a resident of the city of Mahshahr in Khuzestan Province, said in a telephone interview that local officials seemed to be using a trial-and-error approach to managing the coronavirus. Now, he said, residents are confused and angry at the increase in new cases — and at the city shutting down again just as business and daily life was resuming.

There seems to be some conflicts in the Bloomberg and New York Times articles about when the lockdowns ended across the country. Of course, I am probably missing articles between early April and mid May. The New York Times article would imply that the lockdowns ended in late April.

But look at the timeline between the Reuters and New York Times articles. Though additional lockdowns aren't mentioned, it does appear that more provinces in Iran are facing increases in cases between May 10th and May 18th. It used to just be Khuzestan, but now includes many other provinces. For those in Khuzestan, this is resulting in anger about what is going on.

Once again, if the US infection rate follows that of Iran, we could start to see a major attitude shift within the United States. November elections could get really interesting where both Democrats and Republicans are kicked out of office based on which party is in control of a specific federal, state or city government.

What I didn't see, but I've read in Ali's tweets is that Qom is not seeing a major outbreak. So when the second wave hits the United States, New York City might be spared.

Misc Items

As with other countries, Iran's health care workers are being hit hard. Reuters (May 21) reports a short two sentence clip:

“Around 10,000 health workers have been infected with the deadly disease in Iran and some of them have died,” Qassem Janbabai said, according to ILNA.

Iran Focus (May 21) reports what looks to be similar infections that have hit children in the United States, mainly in New York City:

Recently, in Gilan province, northern Iran, a cluster of about 20 children were hospitalized due to skin inflammation, high fever, and gastrointestinal symptoms. In this respect, Erfani claimed that “The samples have been sent to Tehran for further investigation.” Simultaneously, he did not reject the likelihood of COVID-19 infection.