Tuesday, May 12, 2020

Coronavirus: Spring Break, Early Warnings, Michael Burry

The blog post is just about putting together some old articles about various coronavirus topics.

During Florida's Spring Break, many had concerns as college students were having fun and saying they weren't all that worried about COVID-19. The New York Times (April 12th) via Yahoo's website wrote about Florida's Spring Break.

The exact number of people who returned from leisure trips to Florida with the coronavirus may never be known. Cases as far away as California and Massachusetts have been linked to the Winter Party Festival, a beachside dance party and fundraiser for the LGBTQ community held March 4-10. Another California man died after going to Orlando for a conference and then to a packed Disney World. Two people went to Disney and later got relatives sick in Florida and Georgia.

The article goes through examples of various individuals who got the virus while in Florida for Spring Break. I think the above quote is key; however. One of the major fears was that Spring Breakers would spread the virus across the country. It is possible that this fear was over-blown and that the country had a lucky break in this regard.



Now I started getting concerned about coronavirus around mid-January. I don't know specifically when I started to read about the virus, but it was probably early January via Zerohedge. I also started watching Peak Prosperity videos later in January. I do know that my concern skyrocketed when I learned that Wuhan was locked down. The LA Times has a solid article about various individuals who followed this virus from nearly the beginning, maybe even sooner than Zerohedge's first article:

1. A British American scientist named Peter Daszak learned about this virus just after Christmas. He got suspicious when Chinese colleagues refused to discuss the virus.

2. In mid-December, Lawrence Gostin, professor of global health law at Georgetown Law, started talking about the virus with friends. He learned about the virus from someone in Wuhan.

3. Marjorie Pollack who is a deputy editor of ProMed got info on the virus on December 30th via Weibo.

It's a really interesting article that discusses those who raised the warning flags really early. Should people have listened to them? Yes. On the other hand, this was really early on in the history of the virus and so I would say it is difficult to make policy decisions based on a handful of tied in individuals. Yet, it is obvious, that China could have made moves far sooner than it did (they locked down Wuhan on January 23rd).

Bloomberg via MSN (April 7th) has an article up about Michael Burry of The Big Short fame who has some choice words about COVID-19 lockdowns.

“Universal stay-at-home is the most devastating economic force in modern history,” Burry wrote in an email to Bloomberg News. “And it is man-made. It very suddenly reverses the gains of underprivileged groups, kills and creates drug addicts, beats and terrorizes women and children in violent now-jobless households, and more. It bleeds deep anguish and suicide.”

. . . “Unconscionable,” is how he described job losses in the U.S., which have caused a once-unthinkable 10 million people to apply for unemployment benefits in the past two weeks.

Burry has taken on medical policymakers in tweets regarding the illness itself, saying coronavirus infections can be managed through common-sense measures like increased hand-washing and broader testing, without forcing everyone to stay at home.

The article doesn't state his position on large gatherings (sports, concerts, conferences), but it really appears like he's taking Sweden's position on the virus. Before saying he is wrong, we really need to follow what is happening in Sweden.




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