Coronavirus: Tanzania testing kits detect coronavirus in a fruit?

Per Worldometer, as of Friday (May 8), there were only 59,050 cases of coronavirus in Africa. Even Canada has more reported cases than the whole continent of Africa. One can look at this as a half glass full position and believe that coronavirus is not wide spread in Africa, because Africa learned lessons from Asia, Europe and America. That might be true. My position is that there just isn't enough testing going on to determine the extent of the spread. On a test per million basis, South Africa and Ghana are doing the best at around 5,000 (I'm excluding much smaller countries like Djibouti that doesn't even have a population of 1 million). Yet, many of the countries that rank in the top 20 for the most absolute cases have tested way more than 5,000 per million. (Brazil, Ecuador, India and Mexico have tested fewer people while ranking in the top 20.)

The President tries to trick the system?

Based on all that, I found this claim from the president of Tanzania interesting. From Quartz (May 4) via Yahoo:

[ President John Magufuli], who holds a doctorate in chemistry, said the testers had randomly obtained several non-human samples on animals and fruits which included a sheep, a goat and a pawpaw and the results came out positive. The samples were given human names and ages and were submitted to the country’s National Referral Laboratory to test for coronavirus without the lab technicians knowing the true identity of the samples.

This apparently prompted Magufuli to believe some people who were tested positive for Covid-19 might not have contracted the novel virus after all. “I have always raised my suspicions about how our national lab has been conducting the Covid-19 cases,” he said at an event in Chato in northern-western Tanzania. The president, who has ordered a probe into the country’s testing protocols, insinuated possible interference by unnamed saboteurs.

Al Jazeera (May 5) reported that after these false positives, Magufuli responded by doing the following:

Tanzania has suspended the head of its national health laboratory in charge of coronavirus testing, a day after President John Magufuli questioned the accuracy of the tests. . . The president called for an investigation in what he suspected is a "dirty game" in the laboratory, but did not say where the kits had been imported from. "The equipment or people may be compromised and sometimes it can be sabotage," Magufuli said in a speech broadcast live through state-run Tanzania Broadcasting Corporation (TBC).

Reuters (May 7) via Yahoo counters:

The head of the Africa Centres for Disease Control and Prevention on Thursday rejected an assertion by Tanzania's president that coronavirus tests it supplied are faulty . . . "The tests that Tanzania is using, we know they are working very well," John Nkengasong told journalists. The Africa CDC, along with the Jack Ma Foundation, a charity founded by the Chinese billionaire, supplied the tests, Nkengasong said . . . No other countries have made public complaints about the tests.

Okay, Magufuli has a doctorate in chemistry. It doesn't appear like he went to a top ranked university, but he still holds a doctorate. I'm assuming he took his classes seriously. This actually seems like what a sneaky scientist might do just to test out the system. Also, these tests came from China. There are plenty of videos and articles about China sending out faulty personal protective equipment. It is entirely reasonable to assume that maybe they sent out faulty tests. The fact that no other African nation has complained could also be driven by the close ties between Africa and China (an upcoming blog post looks into those ties that just might be coming apart). So yeah, maybe he's correct that there are issues with false positives.

Or maybe he's trying to trick the citizens

But here's the counter-arguments on why he might be making up these charges:

From Quartz Africa (May 1):

With Covid-19 cases on a sharp rise in Tanzania, there is now widespread speculation that three of its lawmakers who died in a space of 11 days might have contracted the virus. It’s a concern which has prompted the country’s leading opposition party Chadema to call for a suspension of parliament.

. . .Ever since the virus found its way into the continent, most African countries have imposed strict measures such as banning public gatherings including closing down churches and mosques to contain the virus. However, Tanzania’s president John Magufuli, who is a Christian, has allowed all places of worship to remain open in the country despite the government at same time promoting physical distancing.

First, 3 members of parliament died within 11 days. Wikipedia states that there are 393 seats in parliament. If 3 members have died from it, how many others in parliament have the virus? That is info I couldn't track down. I failed to mention that Tanzania only has 509 cases and 21 deaths. Maybe one of the outbreaks is in parliament and so 3 of the 21 deaths are tied to parliament. Or maybe there are just way more cases out there that haven't been reported. Now it is still possible that they're dealing with defective tests, but I do bring it up to just question if the number of cases in the country is actually too low. Second, the president hasn't closed down places of worship so he might have an incentive to downplay the number of cases.

There is also this article from World (May 8):

Tanzanian President John Magufuli has questioned the safety of face masks, refused to impose a lockdown, and issued irregular updates on COVID-19 infection rates . . . Tanzania closed down all schools and banned public gatherings in March, but markets, bus stations, and shops remained open. Magufuli also excluded religious activities from the restrictions. “This is time to build our faith and continue praying to God and not depending on face masks,” he said

Okay, I'm going to be honest: I question anyone who says that faith in God will prevent the spread of the virus. Indonesia also made similar claims. And this article just highlights additional locations that are open -- though admittedly schools and public gatherings (other than houses of worship) have been banned (so you can't say that no actions have been taken). Based on this information about what has closed, you might argue that they're adopting Sweden's policy, but Sweden does have plenty of cases and deaths.

The president is also pursuing what might be considered fake medicine. Al Jazeera (May 8) reports:

Tanzania says it has received its first shipment of Madagascar's self-proclaimed, plant-based "cure" for coronavirus, despite warnings from the World Health Organization that its efficacy is unproven.

The announcement on Friday came days after Madagascar said it would begin selling the herbal concoction - known as Covid-Organics - and that several African countries had already put in orders.

The article does say that the plant that is used for this drink does help when it comes to malaria treatment. And the article does mention that other countries are ordering this drink. I just question that you're basing your hope on God and a drink.

My final counter argument comes from BBC (May 4):

Videos of night burials have been circulating on social media in Tanzania causing some to call into question the government's approach to the coronavirus pandemic.

The footage shows the funerals taking place under tight security with people wearing personal protective equipment and very few mourners in attendance.

This just sounds like a country that is trying to hide something. Basically, the article makes the same argument.

What do I think? I lean towards the idea that he's telling the truth and also in denial.

Final judgement: It is hard to say, but I think he's telling the truth on tricking the system. The test kits are faulty; however, that doesn't mean there aren't plenty of cases in the country, which means he's in denial. Both could be true.

Crazy thought: What if the person handling the non-human samples prior to hand off to the testers had the virus and accidentally contaminated these samples?

Could Tanzania's death rate be higher than other countries?

Anyways, if coronavirus does hit Tanzania hard, the country could be facing a harsher reality than most countries. Per Al Jazeera (April 13):

Michel Yao, programme manager for the COVID-19 emergency response at the World Health Organization (WHO)'s Africa regional office, told Al Jazeera that even though not enough studies have been conducted to determine how exactly coronavirus affects those living with immune deficiency disorders such as HIV-AIDS, people suffering from them would likely be more vulnerable to developing serious illness from COVID-19.

HIV also makes individuals more prone to developing tuberculosis (TB), a respiratory illness that Yao said could make the COVID-19 cases in affected populations more severe. According to WHO data, in 2016 the African region accounted for a quarter of new TB cases worldwide.

The article goes on to state that 54% of the those with HIV live in Eastern and Southern Africa.