Swedish government officials said lockdowns could do little to save lives over the long term and that their more lax approach would let their society reach herd immunity more quickly and lessen the economic pain the country would endure. “About 30 percent of people in Stockholm have reached a level of immunity,” Karin Ulrika Olofsdotter, the Swedish ambassador to the United States, told NPR on April 26. “We could reach herd immunity in the capital as early as next month.”
But a recent study found that just 7.3 percent of Stockholm residents tested positive for coronavirus antibodies at the end of April. “I think herd immunity is a long way off, if we ever reach it,” Bjorn Olsen, professor of infectious medicine at Uppsala University, told Reuters.
And it’s not clear Sweden’s economy will be better off than Norway’s this year. “Economists at Swedish bank SEB estimate Sweden’s GDP will drop 6.5 per cent this year, about the same as the US and Germany, but a little better than Norway and ahead of 9–10 per cent falls in Finland and Denmark, all of which have had lockdowns,” the Financial Times reported May 10. A Reuters poll from April found economists predicting the Scandinavian economies would all fare about the same in 2020.
San Francisco Gate (May 26) reports:
Initially, Sweden saw death rates from COVID-19 that were similar to other European nations that had closed down their economies. Sweden’s 7-day rolling average of daily confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million, while declining from highs in late April, is the highest in Europe, according to online publication Our World in Data. Using the 7-day average as a benchmark, the ratio of Sweden deaths to U.S. deaths is 3 to 2.
. . . Other countries that instituted shelter-in-place measures realized antibody counts in their populations that are not that far behind Sweden’s. In Spain, for example, 5% of the population had developed antibodies as of May 14, according to a government epidemiological study.
MPR News (May 26) reports:
Nearly half of the country's more than 4,000 COVID-19 deaths have occurred in elderly care facilities.
A majority of Swedes, 63 percent, according to one recent poll, support the measures [Dr. Anders Tegnell, chief epidemiologist at Sweden's Public Health Agency] has recommended.
. . . Even without a nationwide lockdown, the Sweden's economy has taken a hit as people continue to follow their government's guidelines and stay at home. Google records indicated that trips to retail and recreational destinations in Stockholm are down 23 percent, while passenger numbers on public transit declined 29 percent between March 28-May 9.
. . . Earlier this month, Tegnell admitted that he is not sure Sweden's strategy was the right call. "I'm not convinced at all — we are constantly thinking about this," he told Swedish newspaper Aftonbladet.
Here's what I notice from the articles:
1. 63% of Swedes still support the measures. So even though COVID-19 deaths that are currently occurring are higher than other countries such as the U.S., the citizens still stand by the measures.
2. As the virus started to spread in Europe, Sweden's deaths were aligned with other European countries, but it is now at a much higher level. I wonder if this slow spread in Sweden is due to their population density compared to the other countries.
3. Also thinking about population density on the spread of the virus in the country, Sweden's antibody tests indicate that 7.3% of Stockholm's residents have been infected with COVID-19. Meanwhile, in Spain, the rate is at 5%. Since Spain shut down, my assumption is that is must have spiked much quicker in Spain while in Sweden it spread on a more level basis.
4. Even though Sweden remained open, their economy has still taken a similar hit to other European countries. Though I think the question to ask is will their economy be able to rebound quicker?
5. The argument was made that locking down wouldn't save lives over the long-term. That's probably not an answer that will be known until there is a vaccine or this virus disappears. Currently, with such a low antibody percentage, it would seem that unless Sweden changes their strategy, they'll continue to see the virus spread for a long time.
6. So is Sweden's policies as bad as articles are portraying? I'd say it is still too early to tell. Will other European countries face a second wave of the virus? What will the long-term economic impact be? We might not know for a couple years from now. That doesn't mean that Sweden won't suffer short-term consequences for their policy decision. CNBC (May 27) reports:
Sweden’s Foreign Minister Ann Linde said Tuesday the EU had cautioned against discriminating when opening borders, and that any decision to exclude the country from an agreement between the Nordic states would be problematic . . . Like its neighbors, Denmark was tight-lipped on its neighbor, saying: “Unfortunately, we can’t comment further on the situation in Sweden.” Sweden itself has told its citizens not to travel abroad until July 15 unless absolutely essential.
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