Yet, did this drawn out battle result in the weakening of both leaders? Recent reports might imply yes.
Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj
France 24 (Sep 18) has the following to report on Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj (GNA):
Prime Minister of Libya’s UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) Farrej al-Sarraj announced on Wednesday his intention to step down, prompting a flurry of speculation about his reasons for doing so, as well as fears that his resignation could cause further turbulence in a country racked by nearly a decade of chaos.
Potential reasons for his resignation:
1. “This could be a manoeuvre aimed at putting pressure on the international community, especially the United States and its allies, so that these countries get more involved in resolving Libya’s civil war,” added Walid Phares, a US-based Middle East specialist, talking to FRANCE 24.
2. Another possible explanation for Sarrej’s resignation, Phares said, is that it was a matter of him bowing to pressure from recent wave of protests over deteriorating living conditions in Libya: “He’s facing a lot of pressure from both demonstrators and members of his own camp, notably Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, who does not hide his own ambitions.”
3. Phares also raised the possibility that Turkey or local militias directly pressured Sarrej to stand down.
Reuters (Sep 21) has this on Turkey's reaction:
President Tayyip Erdogan has said Turkey was upset by Sarraj’s announcement that he planned to quit, but Kalin said Turkish support for the GNA and their bilateral agreements, which include a security pact signed last year, would continue.
Turkish officials may travel to Tripoli “in the coming days” to discuss developments, he added.
France 24 (Sep 18) has the following to report on Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarraj (GNA):
Prime Minister of Libya’s UN-recognised Government of National Accord (GNA) Farrej al-Sarraj announced on Wednesday his intention to step down, prompting a flurry of speculation about his reasons for doing so, as well as fears that his resignation could cause further turbulence in a country racked by nearly a decade of chaos.
Potential reasons for his resignation:
1. “This could be a manoeuvre aimed at putting pressure on the international community, especially the United States and its allies, so that these countries get more involved in resolving Libya’s civil war,” added Walid Phares, a US-based Middle East specialist, talking to FRANCE 24.
2. Another possible explanation for Sarrej’s resignation, Phares said, is that it was a matter of him bowing to pressure from recent wave of protests over deteriorating living conditions in Libya: “He’s facing a lot of pressure from both demonstrators and members of his own camp, notably Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha, who does not hide his own ambitions.”
3. Phares also raised the possibility that Turkey or local militias directly pressured Sarrej to stand down.
Reuters (Sep 21) has this on Turkey's reaction:
President Tayyip Erdogan has said Turkey was upset by Sarraj’s announcement that he planned to quit, but Kalin said Turkish support for the GNA and their bilateral agreements, which include a security pact signed last year, would continue.
Turkish officials may travel to Tripoli “in the coming days” to discuss developments, he added.
Honestly, I don't follow the first argument. I'm not sure how his threat of resignation will result in the US and its allies getting more involved in Libya. Already, Libya has enough foreign powers involved on both sides. If President Trump didn't get overly involved during the battle for Tripoli, why would he get involved now?
The third reason may have some validity. It is hard to tell. Reuters reports that Erdogan was upset. I also wrote a blog post back in Dec 2019 about how Sarrej signed a maritime deal with Turkey. I would think this would result in some good feelings between the two leaders. Yet, it is also possible Erdogan isn't happy with how Sarrej is dealing with the current situation in Libya.
The third reason may have some validity. It is hard to tell. Reuters reports that Erdogan was upset. I also wrote a blog post back in Dec 2019 about how Sarrej signed a maritime deal with Turkey. I would think this would result in some good feelings between the two leaders. Yet, it is also possible Erdogan isn't happy with how Sarrej is dealing with the current situation in Libya.
I think the second argument is a strong possibility and I'll go with that as the main driver -- the other reasons could be playing a role, as well. All the way back in Nov 2018 I wrote a blog post about how both the eastern and western parts of Libya wanted him removed from office. There are probably simmering tensions there and with the threat against Tripoli now appearing to be over, internal politics may start to come more into play.
Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar
Reuters via WTVB (Sep 24) reports:
Having failed in his bid for national rule, Haftar, 76, is now severely diminished. His troops have been driven out of western Libya, while in his eastern stronghold foreign powers that backed him are making overtures to rivals.
I've always had a bit of skepticism around Haftar's attempt on Tripoli and felt that it would weaken him. The above quote validates my skepticism -- at least for now.
The following quote might provide some additional context on why Sarrej is stepping down: oil and the money it brings. It looks like certain factions in western Libya weren't happy with a recent oil deal.
. . .But both the oil restart and the halt to fighting are on shaky ground. Haftar said the blockade would initially be lifted for just one month. His deal with a deputy prime minister of the Tripoli government provoked a backlash in western Libya, where many fear it will give the LNA more control over revenues.
And the following provides some insights on how international powers are trying to deal with Haftar. Some appear to want to sideline him and bring around another leader, but France is standing strong (maybe with a bit of wiggle room) with him.
. . . In the east, international powers looking beyond Haftar have resurrected Aguila Saleh, the head of a rump parliament who was previously sanctioned by the EU and United States.
. . . Some Western states want Haftar confined to military talks. But France is still pushing for him to have a political role. One French diplomat said Paris was trying to appear less pro-Haftar and work with European partners to counter Turkey. Another said Haftar was crucial to a political solution.
I think the months of fighting around Tripoli has weakened both leaders. In the end, that may not be good as internal fighting for leadership on both sides could result in two civil wars: one in the east and one in the west.
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