Libyan military strongman Khalifa Haftar announced a “decisive battle” for the capital Tripoli on Thursday, eight months after he launched an offensive to wrest it from the unity government. “Zero hour has come for the broad and total assault expected by every free and honest Libyan,” he said in a speech aired by the pro-Haftar Al-Hadath channel.
When I read about Haftar making this claim, I was scratching my head. Why would he make such a bold claim when from everything I've read the battle for Tripoli has been stalled since it started back in April. One thought did come to mind on why he would make this bold claim. In my previous blog post on Libya I did link to two Reuters articles (here and here) that mentioned that oil fields under control of Haftar were temporarily loss to Tripoli and Chad mercenary forces. Is Haftar finally feeling pressure on his flanks and figures his best move is an attempt to get Tripoli to surrender?
AP hints at another reason:
Hifter’s declaration of his most recent offensive came after the signing of a security arrangement and maritime deal between Sarraj’s government and Turkey last month. The maritime deal would give Turkey access to a Mediterranean Sea economic zone offshore from Libya. Cyprus, Egypt and Greece claim the accord violates international law.
Since Turkey has long sided with Tripoli, I'm not sure this would give Haftar the impetus to make such an announcement. Though, as the article goes on to say, this Turkey-Tripoli agreement does provide some Mediterranean intrigue that goes beyond these two countries. This also has implications for Greece, Cyprus and Egypt.
Haftar's declaration was just not words. The AP continues.
Just two days after rebel Libyan commander Khalifa Hifter declared a “final” and decisive battle for the capital Tripoli, heavy fighting raged for a 24-hour period between his troops and militias loosely allied with the internationally backed government based in the city, officials said Saturday.
. . . Hifter’s forces took control of the town of al-Tawghaar, just south of Tripoli, the LNA said. But Tripoli-based forces disputed that claim.
Now I tried to find al-Tawghaar on the map, but couldn't. I do know that in October, the LNA (Haftar) had made it to Aziziyah, which is 40 kilometers from Tripoli.
From al Jazeera, European nations want the fighting to end:
The leaders of France, Germany and Italy have urged all sides in the Libyan conflict to cease fighting, after renegade military chief Khalifa Haftar called on his forces to advance towards the centre of the capital, Tripoli. Following a European Union summit on Friday in Brussels, Emmanuel Macron, Angela Merkel and Giuseppe Conte said stability in Libya "can only be achieved through a political solution" . . . Separately, Russia's foreign ministry on Friday called for dialogue between Libya's foreign warring factions.
Since I do believe that both France and Russia has been helping Haftar, I'm not sure how seriously I should take those comments. However, they may be weighing Turkey's growing role in Libya. Of course, Turkey also has issues in Syria. Part of me really thinks that Russia encouraged Haftar to make this move.
Though I think Haftar is making a serious error in judgement as the battle in Tripoli is likely to be street by street and bloody, it does appear that there is an attempt to end the stalemate.
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