Supporting the GNA
Qatar
Turkey
Supporting the LNA
Egypt
France
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
United Arab Emirates
Somewhat neutral
Italy
United States
The one foreign actor not mentioned is Chad mercenaries/rebels, which I'd say supports the GNA.
After that quick summary of support, there is actually a lot that is happening in Libya.
Sirte
Sirte is a city that is between Tripoli and Benghazi. One value of Sirte was that it has an airport that was used by the GNA to attack LNA forces. The city "fell" or just switched sides without a fight. Via Yahoo:
Many in Sirte welcomed Haftar's forces as they did not support the GNA -- whose forces are mostly former anti-Kadhafi rebels from Misrata, a city between Sirte and Tripoli.
. . . According to Emad Badi of the Middle East Institute, Haftar is looking to turn Misratan forces towards Sirte in order to weaken Tripoli's defences.
His forces may look to open a new front against Misrata, 200 kilometres (120 miles) east of Tripoli, which previously blocked their advance west, according to Hamish Kinnear, an analyst at Verisk Maplecroft.
"Misratan militias will prioritise protecting their home city" if the LAAF advances on it, he said.
So the question is: how much money exchanged hands to get Sirte to switch to the LAAF?
Tripoli
The point made by Emad Badi is important and is why I mentioned Sirte before moving on to the dramatic developments in Tripoli. Between Sirte and Tripoli is Misrata.
AMN reports:
In a new interview, Aref Ali Al-Nayed said that the Libyan National Army was only a few kilometers away from the capital’s center after entering the city last week.
Al-Nayed added that the Libyan National Army is now “less than 100 km away from Misrata.”
. . . The city itself is considered one of the most important strongholds for the GNA, as many of the militias fighitng in Tripoli are from Misrata.
If Haftar's forces move towards Misrata from Sirte, Tripoli's military support might be significantly reduced.
Turkey/Russia
As mentioned above, there are two powerful foreign actors involved in Libya: Russia and Turkey.
Al Jazeera states:
Turkey has asked Russia to convince eastern Libyan strongman Khalifa Haftar to respect a ceasefire initiative by Ankara and Moscow that he has rejected.
. . . [Minister of Foreign Affairs of Turkey Mevlut] Cavusoglu also said on Saturday that a new ceasefire brokered by Ankara and Moscow was due to come into force at 00:01 GMT on Sunday in Idlib, the last rebel bastion in Syria's northwest.
It looks like this move by Turkey and Russia to negotiate a cease fire in Libya is associated with Syria. Both Syria and Libya are likely tied together when it comes to Russia and Turkey.
Perhaps in an attempt to encourage Haftar to agree to a cease fire, Russia's mercenaries might be withdrawing from the battlefield. Per Daily Sabah:
A certain number of Russian mercenaries have started to withdraw from the frontline near Tripoli after President Erdoğan and his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin agreed upon a cease-fire in Libya, a commander from Libya's U.N.-backed Tripoli Government said.
The article goes on to state that Haftar's forces are support not just by Russian mercenaries (perhaps past tense), but also Janjaweed (Darfur region of Sudan), Sudanese, Egyptians and UAE.
My question is would Janjaweed, Sudanese, Egyptians and UAE force really want to get involved in Tripoli street fighting? This is where I've always been skeptical of Haftar's move against Tripoli.
Also, if there is a cease fire, what would the end result be? To me, it can't be the GNA just holding onto Tripoli and Misrata. And I can't see the LNA giving back territory. Potentially, the country would just have to officially split into two different countries. The question would come around to the sharing of oil profits.
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