Tuesday, November 27, 2018

Libya: various sides playing nice?

Just a high level introduction to Libya:

Libyan National Army (LNA) controls Eastern Libya. They are in Benghazi and are led by General Khalifa Haftar. They are backed by Egypt, France and Russia.

Government of National Accord (GNA) controls Western Libya and is based out of Tripoli. The Prime Minister is Fayez al-Serraj. That government is backed by the UN.

Okay:

In early October, I wrote this:

Voice of America looks into this difference between France and Italy. Why are there conflicts?

1. Italy believes that Libya is in their "sphere of influence" and are not pleased that France both started the war to over throw Gaddafi and is also attempting to come to a peaceful resolution without consulting Italy.

2. France believes that Italy's backing of certain militias was not the correct policy (a militia that the article doesn't name, but is located in the city of Misrata, which is east of Tripoli).

Interestingly, there was a recent conference in Palmero, Italy. The main goal of this conference was to get discussions going between the LNA and GNA, but perhaps this conference was also an olive branch attempt between Italy and France? Though written prior to the conference, Arab News wrote:

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is among foreign leaders slated to attend, while the US, Russia and France have also promised to send high-level representatives, Moavero said. 



Now as for the conference, Al Jazeera wrote an article on it (it doesn't mention if France actually attended the conference). Basically, General Khalifa Haftar agreed not to topple the government in Tripoli prior to the upcoming elections. This is what Al Jazeera wrote specifically:

Renegade General Khalifa Haftar is believed to have extended an olive branch to the rival United Nations-backed government of Fayez al-Serraj, saying he will not seek to topple the Tripoli executive until new elections are held in divided Libya.

To me, that sounds like Haftar is saying that if the elections don't go his way, he might decide to topple the government in Tripoli. The Italy government provided a more political interpretation:

"We interpret this as a conciliatory statement as we aim at reaching an agreement on a broader security framework for the country in view of elections next year," said Casalino.

Of course, why exactly was Haftar wanting to topple the Tripoli government? Al Jazeera writes that Haftar has repeated attempted to over-throw the government in Tripoli. Yet, I think there is something that happened recently that provides additional context on this subject. There is this interesting background from the article:

The Tobruk-based House of Representatives, Libya's parliament, has aligned itself with the general's request and over the past weeks, has pursued, together with the High Council of State, Libya's rival parliament, the removal of Serraj and the Presidential Council he presides over.

The article seems to imply that this request is for the fairer distribution of oil wealth. Now the above quote mentions the Tobruk-based House of Representatives and the High Council of State. Tobruk is in Eastern Libya. High Council of State (via Wikipedia research) is in Tripoli. So both east and west recently decided they wanted Serraj removed.

Why would both sides want Serraj removed? Previously, I wrote about how he appointed Ali Adbulaziz Issawi the new economy and industry minister. He is from Benghazi so maybe Sarraj thought it would help mend fences. The move backfired as Issawi is believed to have been involved in an assassination of a top Eastern Libyan military leader in 2011. I'm thinking this recent appointment caused both sides in Libya to want Serraj removed.



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