Tuesday, March 23, 2021

Libya: Interim Government Formed

I last wrote about Libya back in December. When I wrote that blog post, there was a move towards an interim government. That vote finally occurred on March 10th. On that date, Abdelhamid Dbeibah won a vote of confidence held by the House of Representatives. I searched through my posts on Libya and didn't see a single mention of Dbeibah. Who is he? Al Jazeera (Mar 16) writes:

Dbeibah, 61, a wealthy businessman from the western port city of Misrata, once held posts under longtime ruler Muammar Gaddafi but has shown no clear ideological position. He is also known to be supportive of the Muslim Brotherhood and is close to Turkey.

Based on the fact that he has support from the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey, it'll be interesting to see how supportive Egypt is of him over the next few months. Sounds like he better know how to walk a political tight rope.

And how did he potentially get the votes to take over as interim prime minister? The Guardian (Mar 2) reports:

The legitimacy of Libya’s new interim prime minister, Abdul Hamid Dbeibah, has been thrown into doubt by a UN inquiry finding that he allegedly gained power after his supporters offered bribes as high as $200,000 to attract votes.

. . . The inquiry reports that a row broke out in the lobby of the hotel after delegates discovered that the bribe for their vote was lower than that being offered in secret to others. One delegate heard that as much as $500,000 was on offer.


Of course, there are denials. Such potential bribes resulted in the front runner, Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha to come in second. As I previously mentioned, he was definitely making moves in November to become the interim prime minister. At the time, he was assumed to be too close to the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey. Maybe Turkey didn't give him enough bribe money to win votes?

Based on the wording, Dbeibah was probably slightly less pro-Turkey and Muslim Brotherhood, which might have swayed some votes. 

What about the two main political rivals throughout the Libyan civil war. Former Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarrah, based in Tripoli, was already ready to resign his post. But what about Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar of Benghazi? The African Report (Mar 18) has this to say:

Even though pro-Haftar deputies approved the government list, Haftar has nonetheless lost big time. The strong man of the east did not succeed in placing his men in strategic government positions. He fought hard behind the scenes to obtain the role of minister of defence, but this job remained – in the end – in Dabaiba’s hands. This decision allows the prime minister to avoid alienating one of the Libyan camps, as this position was also requested by the various Islamist factions.

However, according to Jalel Harchaoui, a senior fellow at the Global Initiative against Transnational Organised Crime, Dabaiba will probably leave the field open to Haftar. “The absence of a Minister of Defence will allow Haftar to maintain his military supremacy in the East, even if it is increasingly challenged by internal actors in Cyrenaica,” he says.

Haftar suffered another setback. His candidate for deputy prime minister, Saqr Bujwari, the mayor of Benghazi, lost at the last minute. Initially included in the government list drawn up by Dabaiba, Bujwari was dropped in favour of Hussein Al Qatrani, who is close to Aguila Saleh. Dabaiba granted this favour to the speaker of the House of Representatives in order to facilitate the validation of his government by Parliament.

Back in September, Saleh was seen as a potential political backup to Haftar by various international powers. So not only did he not get to become the minister of defense, but he also lost out to a political rival in the east in getting a key ally into the government.              

Though Haftar might have suffered some set-backs, it still seems he holds some power. This Daily Sabah (Mar 17) article is about the foreign forces in Libya, but has this comment about Haftar:

Most of the foreign forces are concentrated around Sirte at Jufra airbase held by Haftar's forces 500 kilometers (300 miles) south of Tripoli and further west in Al-Watiya.

Based on that, he still has control of the eastern military and will be a force to deal with, but for how long? Will those troops loyal to him start to think that he's losing political power and might start supporting Saleh? Haftar failed in his attempt to take Tripoli. I have to believe this hurt him politically among the eyes of the east. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he eventually leaves Libya and returns to live out his life in Langley, Virginia.

Though there are political winners and losers, another election will be held in December. A lot can change between March and December. And a lot can change once new leaders win that election.    

 




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