Al Jazeera (23 Nov) wrote:
Libya’s rivals have begun a second round of talks on a mechanism to choose a transitional government that would lead the conflict-stricken country to elections in December next year, according to the United Nations.
. . . The 75-member forum, however, reached an agreement to hold presidential and parliamentary elections on December 24, 2021. It also agreed to name a volunteer legal committee to work on the “constitutional basis for the election”.
A lot of mischief can occur between now and Dec 24, 2021. The article also mentions that foreign forces and mercenaries are supposed to leave the country shortly. We'll have to see if that happens.
In my previous blog post, I looked into the leaders of the two factions: Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarrah (Government of National Accord in Tripoli) and Field Marshal Khalifa Haftar (Libyan National Army in Benghazi). What is going on with those two now?
When it comes to mischief, Libyan Express (Nov 23) wrote that Haftar is still making military moves even with the talks going on:
The forces of the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Libya said that they detected the movement of large military forces of Khalifa Haftar towards the city of Sirt.
The spokesman for Sirte Operations and Al-Jafra, belonging to Al-Wefaq government, Abdul Hadi Darah, told news outlets that these convoys move at night in batches from Benghazi city, to centralize in axes west of the coastal city of Sirte (450 km east of Tripoli).
It is my understanding that Sirte is essentially the dividing line between the GNA and LNA. After the GNA forced the LNA troops to retreat from around Tripoli, Sirte ended up being the next line of defense by the LNA.
As mentioned in my previous blog post, Prime Minister Fayez al-Sarrah had decided to step down. Al Jazeera (Oct 31) reported that he now plans to stick around until the end of negotiations:
In September, al-Serraj announced his “sincere desire” to hand over duties to the next executive authority no later than the end of October, as part of the landmark deal to end years of conflict with a rival administration dominated by renegade military commander Khalifa Haftar.
. . . The GNA, in a statement, said al-Sarraj received several requests to stay in his post longer to avoid a “political vacuum”, including from “leaders in friendly countries”, UN officials and civil society groups.
I previously discussed 3 reasons (as provided by France 24) on why he wanted to resign: 1. an attempt to pressure the international community to get more involved; 2. international political pressures, especially from the Interior Minister Fathi Bashagha; 3. Turkey wanted him to step down. At the time, I said that all those reasons might play a role, but that the second reason was the driver (in my opinion).
Let's see what the Interior Minister is up to then, The Guardian (Nov 21) writes:
Libya’s interior minister has completed a three-day charm offensive in France, as a tentative ceasefire in the war-torn country holds and diplomatic jostling for its leadership roles intensifies.
Fathi Bashagha, who hopes to become Libya’s interim prime minister, is regarded by the United Arab Emirates and forces in the east of Libya as under the influence of both the Muslim Brotherhood and Turkey, a country with which France is increasingly in conflict, not only in Libya but across the Middle East.
He is definitely making moves. Perhaps he does have the support of Turkey, but will the east accept him as an interim prime minister. The below provides an answer as well as some verification of what the Libyan Express wrote about LNA moves in Sirte:
[Stephanie Williams, the UN special envoy for Libya] this week told a Turkish thinktank she was concerned that all sides may be preparing for a breakdown of the ceasefire. “On the ground, tactical developments in Libya’s central region remain worrying, as reinforcements continue to pour into both sides and the risk of miscalculation remains,” she said. “In Tripoli, tensions between armed groups are on the rise.”
In a sign that Turkey would not leave easily, Hulusi Akar, the Turkish defence minister, said he supported the UN peace process, “but these efforts should not restrict our existing ties with our Libyan brothers. Our presence and support to the GNA are based on an invitation, and bilateral agreements and are in conformity with international law provided a window of opportunity for diplomacy.”
[Stephanie Williams, the UN special envoy for Libya] this week told a Turkish thinktank she was concerned that all sides may be preparing for a breakdown of the ceasefire. “On the ground, tactical developments in Libya’s central region remain worrying, as reinforcements continue to pour into both sides and the risk of miscalculation remains,” she said. “In Tripoli, tensions between armed groups are on the rise.”
In a sign that Turkey would not leave easily, Hulusi Akar, the Turkish defence minister, said he supported the UN peace process, “but these efforts should not restrict our existing ties with our Libyan brothers. Our presence and support to the GNA are based on an invitation, and bilateral agreements and are in conformity with international law provided a window of opportunity for diplomacy.”
The agreement mentions that all foreign forces and militias are supposed to leave the country. That last quote does appear to indicate that Turkey doesn't want to leave. Like I said above, a lot of mischief can occur between now and December 2021.
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