Coronavirus: Haiti with Minimum Deaths?

I was sure that Haiti would be heavily impacted by COVID-19, but at the moment it looks like this thought was wrong. Haiti Times (Oct 5): reports:

Back in April, public health experts projected 1,000 deaths per day would occur by May in Haiti, whose population stands at more than 11 million. But the numbers recorded by the government have not come anywhere near these levels. 

Per Worldometer, Haiti doesn't even have 500 deaths. The article admits that there could be under-counting of deaths, but if there were 1,000 deaths per day, I'm sure I would find news articles about how graves were being dug across the country. For example, another poor country I've worried about is Yemen. And though per Worldometer there have been few official cases or deaths (actually more deaths than in Haiti), there are anecdotal evidence of significant numbers of deaths such as nearly 100 healthcare workers. 

Venezuela: Closer Ties to Iran

China and Russia have long supported Venezuela. It now looks like Iran is also coming to their help. Before exploring that topic, I came across this Bloomberg via Yahoo (Sep 11) article that discussed how the country is tearing up their oil pipelines to sell as scrape. The headline is correct, but leaves out an important point that can be read in the article: 

Venezuela’s capacity to produce some much-needed gasoline and diesel of its own hinges on a single oil play. To tap it, the Nicolas Maduro regime is willing to cannibalize the country’s crumbling energy infrastructure to pay contractors with scrap metal. 

Unlike the tar-like crude from Venezuela’s Orinoco region, the light oil from Monagas state is the only kind that’s easy to process into fuel at the country’s aging refineries. It’s also the only area where production doesn’t require the help of sanction-wary partners. 

So, with the U.S. considering further steps to curb the country’s fuel imports, cash-strapped state producer Petroleos de Venezuela SA is offering to pay for major repairs at pumping stations and compression plants in Monagas with scrap metal and parts from idled oil facilities, people familiar with the situation said, asking not to be named because the information isn’t public. 

. . . The country so far has relied on shipments from Iran to ease a fuel shortage that often forces Venezuelans to queue for hours and even days to fill up, with many gas stations in Caracas shutting or rationing fuel. 

Movie Review: The Godfather: Part III

I finally caught The Godfather: Part III while doing a marathon viewing of the three films. What a disaster. It really started from the very beginning of the film. Don Michael Corleone (Al Pacino) is reflecting about his life at his Lake Tahoe compound where so much occurred during The Godfather: Part II such as the First Communion party for his son and where he had his brother Fredo murdered. The compound is not only abandoned, but also in a state of disrepair. 

During his reflections, Michael reflects on a conversation with his girlfriend Kay Adams Michelson (Diane Keaton). In that conversation, he tells her how his father got singer Johnny Fontane out of a music contract. He mentions how his father not only got Fontane out of the contract, but also a $1,000 check. Then the next scene has a Hollywood director waking up to a horse head in his bed. Well, those of us who watched the first movie know that the horse head was a result of getting Fontane a role in a movie and not about the music contract. Fail.

After his reflections, we see that Michael writes a letter to his children Anthony (Franc D'Ambrosio) and Mary (Sofia Coppola) in an attempt to reconcile. He apparently did as we next see him in New York, receiving a papal order for his charitable donations which are in the millions. So back to my first paragraph, he let's his compound fall into disrepair, but yet he has the ability to donate millions to the church? The start of the movie has you thinking that Michael has fallen on hard times. Maybe his casino investments went south? But no, he's a very wealthy individual. Okay, maybe that whole scene of a rundown compound was meant as an analogy of his family life and in a way foreshadowed the future, but to me I just don't see Michael allowing that spot to go to ruin like that. Just doesn't seem to be his personality.

After receiving his papal order, there is an after party. There, we meet a wannabe mobster, Vincent Mancini (Andy Garcia). He is the illegitimate son of Michael's brother Sonny (died in the first movie). We learn that Michael doesn't even have him on the guest list though he is recognized by someone at the party and is allowed into the event. Like Sonny, Vincent is a man of action versus a strategist like Michael. This is important point on another failing of the movie.

Anyways, another moment at the party has Anthony going to see his father and telling him that he is dropping out of law school to pursue opera. Michael disapproves, but is convinced by Kay to allow Anthony to drop out of school. At the same time, Michael intervenes in a dispute between Vincent and another mafia leader named Joey Zasa (Joe Mantegna). Vincent shows his violence by attacking Joey after a deal has been struck. For some reason, Michael still brings Vincent into the fold. Okay, so Michael doesn't put him on the invite list. Understands that he has qualities similar to what got Sonny killed. And yet he brings him into the fold? Makes no sense.

The middle part of the film revolves on Michael's attempt to shift his money from the casino business to a company called Immobiliare. From how it is explained, it sounds like it is the largest property REIT in Europe. The reason he targets a European company versus a US based one is because the property is owed by the Catholic Church and he knows that the Vatican Bank has financial issues. So Michael is on his way from shifting from pure mafia activity to the casino business (partially out of the mafia) to a REIT. This is something he's tried to do since the first movie and something he had long promised his family. Yet, he gets pulled back into the world of the mafia, because the other mafia leaders aren't happy that he isn't helping them move out of the business. Okay, so seriously, these leaders can't figure out a way to get out of the mafia world on their own? 

Anyways, Michael sets up a meeting with these leaders. Joey Zasa is also invited. Michael gives enormous amounts of money to everyone (based on their investments in the casinos) except for Joey. Wait, why would a strategic Michael do this? He both invites Joey to the meeting and then embarrasses him by not proving him with anything? Even if Joey had little involvement in the casino business, would Michael really do this?

Joey leaves in anger. Within minutes, a helicopter outfitted with a machine gun (or two) blasts the meeting room. Michael and Vincent barely escape, but most everyone else is killed. Shortly thereafter, Michael suffers a diabetic stroke. While he recuperates, Vincent takes action against Joey and kills him. When Michael (who is slowly gaining back his health) learns about this, he grows very angry. He tells Vincent that Joey was not the brains behind what had happened and that they shouldn't have taken that action until figuring out how to deal with the real brains behind the attack. This is the second time Vincent has taken action when cautious strategic thinking would have been better. Okay, so what if Joey had gotten paid out, would he still have shot up the meeting room? 

The family then heads to Italy where Anthony is the lead singer in an opera. Okay, I don't know much about opera, but someone who no doubt spent hours studying hard in undergrad in order to get into law school was able to become a top professional opera singer? Doesn't opera singing take years of training? I guess not.

While in Europe, intrigue comes about regarding the mafia, the Catholic Church and Immobiliare. By this time, Michael looks to be not at full health, but does appear to have gotten his mental capacity back. He is able to maneuver strategically through the intrigue and is able to secure the deal. He has finally succeeded in what he has desired. He's gotten his family out of the mafia business.

But perhaps he has let his guard down. For some reason, he puts Vincent in charge of the mafia side of the business. Now why exactly would Michael put Vincent in charge of the family business? Maybe Michael notices something in Vincent that I don't think anyone watching the movie notices? To me, Vincent is still a bit of a hothead. He hasn't really shown any ability to think strategically. He only is able to follow through with the tactics that Michael gives him. Basically, during this whole time, Michael asks Vincent to become a double agent. All I see is Vincent being able to provide useful info on the interactions.

In a repeat of what happened in the first two movies, with all the chess pieces figures out, Michael/Vincent enact their long game strategy of taking out their enemies. Sorry, this just seems like a repeat of the first two movies and very repetitive. 

Anyways, the above are the reasons why I find this movie a waste of time.

What I did really enjoy: I honestly think the last few minutes is awesome. It finally answers if Michael was ever able to keep his word about getting his family out of the mafia business.

Also, I do remember that Sofia Coppola got a lot of criticism for her acting. Honestly, it wasn't brilliant, but it was solid. I think she got better as the movie progressed. I think her last scene was brilliant.

 

Coronavirus: Iran Death Toll to Reach 300,000?

News media is saying that Iran is dealing with a third wave. I kind of feel like they're on a long second wave that has recently started to take another tick up based on official reporting. I do believe that what is happening in Iran in terms of cases will eventually be emulated in Europe and the U.S. Hopefully, when it comes to deaths, there will be fewer deaths due to better medical services.  

The Guardian (Oct 14) reports:

Mohammad Talebpour, the director of Sina hospital, the oldest in Tehran, predicted that if Iranians did not collectively take action and the disease persisted for another 18 months, as many as 300,000 could die. He said a third of the medical staff at his hospital had at one point contracted the disease.

Covid-19 has so far killed 29,070 Iranians, according to widely challenged official statistics, including 254 on Wednesday alone, just down on the daily record set on 12 October of 272.

. . . In an attempt to force reluctant Iranians to abide by social distancing rules, including the compulsory wearing of face masks in public, Hassan Rouhani’s government has introduced fines of up to $6.60, initially in Tehran.

Guyana: Impact of COVID-19 on Anticipated Wealth from Oil

I last wrote about Guyana back in November 2019. At the time, they were about to start pumping out oil and gaining the corresponding wealth that was to come to the nation. In that post, I highlighted an article that provided recommendations on how the country could make sure that the wealth benefited the country as a whole. Unfortunately, the virus hit the globe and oil demand sunk. What is the current situation?

The Conversation (Sep 22) discusses this:

Guyana’s new president, Mohamed Irfaan Ali, finally took office in August.

Ali campaigned on the issue of oil governance. Asserting that his predecessor David Granger had agreed to overly generous contracts with foreign oil investors, he promised to get Guyana its fair share of oil revenues.

. . . Though its crude has barely left the ground, Guyana was counting on oil revenues to plug its budget deficit this year. That may now prove impossible given the damage COVID-19 has done to its economy. But if Guyana can resist the urge to pay today’s costs by borrowing against future oil receipts, it could yet ride out this crisis.

President Ali has promised to create a petroleum commission to ensure transparency for how Guyana’s oil revenues are spent and to prevent undue political interference in the oil and gas sector. 

Coronavirus: 10% of the world population infected?

Per Worldometer, there are nearly 40 million cases in the world. Yet that might just be a serious under-counting of infections.

The WHO believes that 10% of the world population may be infected by the virus. The Associated Press via the LA Times (Oct 5) reports:

“Our current best estimates tell us that about 10% of the global population may have been infected by this virus,” [WHO's head of emergencies Dr. Michael Ryan] said.

The estimate — which would amount to more than 760 million people based on a current world population of about 7.6 billion — is more than 20 times greater than the number of confirmed cases tallied by both the WHO and Johns Hopkins University. That tally is more than 35 million.

CNN (Oct 6) added:

Over the summer, the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said cases in the US had likely been undercounted by at least 90%.

. . . The WHO's Europe director Hans Kluge warned Tuesday of "fatigue" surrounding the virus, noting that survey data from the region showed that apathy has reached high levels in some nations. "Although fatigue is measured in different ways, and levels vary per country, it is now estimated to have reached over 60% in some cases," Kluge said in a statement.

Based on Worldometer, the United States is at 8 million plus cases. By 90%, do they mean we're at 80 million cases or 24% of the population?

As per Europe, I'm not exactly sure what 60% fatigue means. What would 100% fatigue mean? I might have to do a little digging on that.

NPR (Oct 5) states:

The WHO is also working to develop new tools to combat COVID-19.

It's helping to test several vaccine candidates and developing plans for how to distribute a vaccine equitably once one is finally approved. It's working on new drugs to treat the disease and new tests to detect it.

In his presentation to the executive board, [WHO's head of emergencies Dr. Michael Ryan] noted that those efforts are currently woefully underfunded. He said the WHO needs $14 billion immediately and more down the road to fund what it calls its ACT Accelerator program (Access to COVID-19 Tools or ACT) to develop new pharmaceutics to fight against COVID-19.

Does the WHO really need $14 billion to help develop new treatments, new tests and test/distribute vaccines? I could see WHO needing money to distribute vaccines across the globe, but why do they need money to develop new treatments, develop the vaccine and create new tests? For example, countries across the globe are developing vaccines. Why does the WHO need to get involved in that? And there are studies coming out all the time around new treatments. Why does the WHO need to get involved? Seems like a money grab to me especially considering how the continent that many (including me) thought would get overwhelmed by the virus just hasn't been hit that hard -- yet.

Here is the one point that the articles don't discuss: if 760 million people across the globe are infected and if Worldometer 1.1 million estimate is close to correct, then we have an IFR % of just 0.14%. That would actually be significantly lower than the CDC estimate of an IFR % of 0.3%. Of course, that CDC estimate was for the United States (I believe) and as has been argued the IFR % in Africa is probably lower due to a young population.           

It should be noted that according to this article, the flu IFR % is 0.025%. So COVID-19 is still nearly 6x deadly than the flu.  

Coronavirus: Indonesia -- don't wear a mask, dig graves

Back in July, I took a look at the impact of COVID-19 on Indonesia. There was some weird topic of using eucalyptus necklaces to deal with the virus. At the time, the country only had 74,000 recorded cases, but there were concerns that the numbers were much higher due to under-testing (their testing ranked in the 160th range at the time). Fast forward a couple months since that post and their testing is still in the 160th range. Though their testing has much to be desired, the country is taking the virus seriously (other than perhaps that eucalyptus necklace and prayer ideas).

South China Morning Post (Sep 22nd) reports about what the country is doing: 

Under the stricter regulations, known locally by the acronym PSBB, most workplaces have to keep the bulk of their employees at home, and while shopping centres can remain open, no dining in is allowed. Residents caught outside without masks will be tasked with social work or receive a fine that starts from 250,000 rupiah.

The restrictions will be in place until Sunday, but could be extended until October 11 if there is a significant increase in the number of Covid-19 cases – a possibility that deeply worries Yosef.

Coronavirus: Yemen has 1 million cases?

As I've said before, certain countries just don't get much attention when it comes to coverage of COVID-19. One of those countries is Yemen. Per the  United Nations (Sep 17):

More than five years of war have “devastated the lives of tens of millions of Yemenis”, with experts estimating that up to one million may have been affected by COVID-19, the UN chief told the General Assembly on Thursday.

This estimate is far different from Worldometer, which has the number of cases at just over 2,000. There's a big difference between cases in the 4 figures versus 7 figures.

Sky UK (Sep 18) reported about Yemen:

"There's no corona in Yemen," one man tells us as others gather around, nodding in agreement. "There's no corona at all… People are lying. They're liars."

. . . And there's a firm belief here that quat - which gives the user an amphetamine "high" - can help ward off the crippling disease.

"Whenever you get a temperature and tiredness, you chew some quat and you get better," one man tells us.

. . . In Sana'a's Old City, those who do believe the virus exists are also convinced it's a biological weapon used by those who've been waging war against them in this region for the past few years.

. . . The doctors in the Al-Kuwait hospital tell us they've dealt with "thousands" of COVID cases, but their foreign sponsors are cutting their donations because the official tally suggests the virus is "over" here. They are frantic with worry about the future and what it holds.

Coronavirus: Is the Virus not Spreading in Africa?

I've discussed COVID-19 in Africa a number of times. My last blog post was in August. At the time, I mentioned that back in April the WHO predicted that there would be 10 million cases within 3 to 6 months. The 6 months would be around now. Africa does have north of 1 million cases, but it is far below 10 million. Now there are probably way more cases than are being reported. When looking at the larger African countries, you have to go all the way down to the 100 ranking range to see countries like Morocco and South Africa pop up with under 80,000 tests per million (per Worldometer). Countries such as Australia, Russia, United Kingdom and the United States are all in the 300,000+ tests per million. I could see the possibility that there are more like 6 million cases in Africa. But let's be honest, even if there are millions of cases in Africa, I'm not reading news articles about how the virus is causing significant problems for the continent.

Los Angeles Homeless Issue: Proposition HHH 2020 Audit

Los Angeles recently released a new Controller audit related to Proposition HHH. The proposition is meant to address homelessness in the city. The proposition allowed the city to issue $1.2 billion in general obligation bonds.

Here's what the LA Times (Sep 9) reported:

The average cost of building a single unit of housing for the homeless in Los Angeles has risen to $531,000, according to an audit from the city controller, who recommends that L.A. rehab motels and open dormitory-style buildings to save money and get people off the streets quickly.

Controller Ron Galperin, in a report due Wednesday, also cited two projects whose costs soared to nearly $750,0000 per unit and assailed delays that he said have driven city-funded homeless construction expenses up from initial projections of $350,000 a unit.

. . . Ann Sewill, general manager of the city’s Housing and Community Development Department, said savings from motel conversions, while appealing, are unproved.

“Everyone thinks motels are lower-cost, but there haven’t been that many models going through,” Sewill said. She said the city has opened or developed 30 bridge housing facilities, shelters designed to move homeless people into permanent housing faster. But the permanent units aren’t there, and Proposition HHH is the only source of money to expand the supply, she said. 

US Shale Production Dependent on DUC Inventory?

OilPrice had a recent article up from Rystad Energy that discussed how US shale production is dependent on drilled, uncompleted wells (DUC). I find the DUC topic interesting and last mentioned it in this July blog post. I find it interesting for a few reasons:

1. Why do oil producers keep so much DUC inventory. Per EIA, DUC wells have been in the 7,600 range this whole year. Why keep spending capital on weekly rigs when you can easily draw down on these sunk costs.

2  Thinking about point 1, how much of this 7,600 DUC inventory is just not worth turning into productive wells? You've already spent the capital so why not just get the wells producing? Maybe it isn't worth it?

Coronavirus: Sweden Getting Positive Press

I mentioned back in August that we should likely wait until October / November timeframe to see what is going on in Sweden. As we're at the start of October, let's see what the current situation is. It is a little early in my timeframe, but I'll follow-up in a few weeks again with another update.

First off, let's start with the impact on the economy. One quote I had up from that August post was about the impact on COVID-19 on Sweden's economy. The New York Times via Yahoo (Jul 8) reported that Sweden's approach did little for their economy when compared to other Nordic countries:

Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden’s grim result — more death and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time. 

Coronavirus: Impact on Mexico's Economy

Back in mid-May, I looked at how COVID-19 was impacting Mexico. At the time, Mexico's COVID-19 czar predicted that only 6,000 would die from the virus. As can be seen by Worldometers, deaths due to the virus are far greater than 6,000. In fact, on a deaths per million basis, Mexico are around the levels seen in the United States. It is possible that the country has deaths that are much higher than the United States. In that same mid-May blog post, I pointed out that Mexico was guilty of under counting deaths. It is possible that this Fox News (Sep 6) indicates how bad the situation is: 

Parts of Mexico have run out of death certificates as the country’s death toll from the coronavirus continues to soar, according to reports.

. . . One million new certificates have been printed and are being distributed, they said. The certificates include special characteristics because falsification has been a problem in the past.

. . . New government figures show deaths in Mexico from March to August from all causes were 122,765 more than what would be expected in a normal year, Bloomberg News reported.