Coronavirus: WHO warns of spread in Africa

I last wrote about coronavirus in Africa on April 19th. At the time, WHO issued a warning that there could be 10 million cases within 3 to 6 months. We are heading towards 4 months since that announcement and there are, per Worldometer, no where near 10 million cases. It would admittedly be hard to have 10 million confirmed cases when there have been fewer than 10 million tests conducted (once again, per Worldometer). 

ANOTHER WHO WARNING

The fact that there are fewer than 1 million confirmed cases hasn't prevented the WHO from issuing an additional warning. 

Al Jazeera (Jul 20) reported: 

The World Health Organization (WHO) voiced alarm on Monday at the spread of COVID-19 in Africa, warning South Africa's surging numbers could be a "precursor" for outbreaks across the continent. 

"I am very concerned right now that we are beginning to see an acceleration of disease in Africa," WHO's emergencies chief Michael Ryan told a virtual news conference. 

Until recently, Africa remained relatively unscathed by the pandemic compared with rising numbers in other parts of the world. 

Though Al Jazeera notes that there are fewer cases in Africa compared to other parts of the globe, they do note the following: 

While South Africa's numbers were by far the largest, they had "only" increased by 30 percent in the past week, he said. 

By comparison, numbers in Kenya increased by 31 percent, in Madagascar by 50 percent, in Zambia by 57 percent, and in Namibia by 69 percent.

Those are dramatic increases though at a low base. 

BBC (Jul 21) gives some additional details on the low testing across the continent that is likely causing a significant under-count of infections: 

By 12 July, South Africa had done about 36 tests per 1,000 people, compared to 106 in the UK and 122 in the US. Nigeria has achieved 0.9 tests per 1,000 people, Ghana 11 and Kenya 4. It's worth pointing out that for some African countries, it is impossible to know what exactly is happening due to a lack of any data or data being incomplete.

Due to such low testing, who knows if the WHO forecast of 10 million cases is really that off from reality.

SOUTH AFRICA

South Africa has by far the most confirmed cases. They've also conducted the most tests per million in Africa outside of a handful of countries with less than 1 million people.

Time reports: 

A new report by the South African Medical Research Council, released late Wednesday, shows more than 17,000 excess deaths in South Africa from May 6 to July 14 as compared to data from the past two years, while confirmed COVID-19 deaths are 5,940.

“The numbers have shown a relentless increase — by the second week of July, there were 59% more deaths from natural causes than would have been expected based,” the report says.

The council’s president, Glenda Gray, said in a statement the excess deaths could be attributed to COVID-19 as well as to other widespread diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis while many health resources are redirected toward the pandemic.

. . . Many countries across Africa locked down quickly as the pandemic raced across Europe and the United States, delaying its spread at home. But economic pressures have forced most governments to loosen restrictions, though South Africa this month returned to a ban on alcohol sales to help free up precious hospital beds. 

Like my post on Mexico back on May 19th, this seems to indicate another situation where official death counts should not be trusted. 

Also, the last portion of the quote is important. Poor nations can not lock down for long periods of time. Though they might have temporary success in fighting off the virus, in the end it is likely that they'll just be stuck dealing with it. This could also apply to wealthier nations at some point. You can only stay locked down for so long. Also, if we someday find a vaccine, I suspect poorer nations will be the last to get the vaccines so they're going to have to figure out how to deal with this much longer than wealthier nations.

ZIMBABWE

Associated Press via MSN (Jul 21) reports:

Zimbabwe has reported 1,713 cases, up from about 50 two months ago, and President Emmerson Mnangagwa on Tuesday evening announced a night curfew, banned political, religious and social gatherings, and reduced business operating hours in order to try to slow the spread of the virus. 

KENYA

BBC (Jul 20) reports on some of the denial associated with coronavirus: 

Today, despite more than 11,000 cases of Covid-19 and 200 deaths in Kenya, there are those who still say that the virus does not exist - from the gentleman who cleaned my vehicle last week insisting that it is the biggest lie of our time to fellow journalists saying that it is nothing more than a prolonged flu. 

Indeed, a well-known motivational speaker and Pastor Robert Burale was recently accused of faking his Covid-19 positive status despite images showing that he was in a Nairobi hospital.

To be honest, there are still some denialist in America.

TRACKING DEATHS

Reuters (Jul 13) reports:

In a nation [Ethiopia} where fewer than 2% of deaths are registered, an increase in burials may be one of the first signs that a killer disease is on the loose. 

The program was set up to monitor deaths related to HIV/AIDS a decade ago. Now doctor Bilal monitors for a spike in fatalities linked to COVID-19. 

 He has yet to see one, but projects like his are being set up in other African countries where many deaths go unrecorded, making it hard to assess the scale of a disease. In some cases, nations are dusting off programs set up during Ebola outbreaks.

I think when all is said and done, this is the way that the world will figure out how deadly the virus really was. People who are good at forensics will need to do their best at digging through limited data and make general assumptions regarding country by country deaths.