Coronavirus: Sweden's Daily Deaths in Decline

Sweden's approach to the coronavirus is controversial. Their approach is perhaps just slightly more restrictive than those seen in Brazil and Mexico. And the least restrictive in Western Europe. This has lead many, such as myself, to keep an eye on what is happening in the country. Let's see what various news articles have to say since my last post on the country in late May.

Business Insider via Yahoo(Jun 3) reported that Sweden had some regrets regarding their approach:

Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, told Swedish radio station Sveriges Radio on Wednesday that while the country would have implemented tougher restrictions, they would still likely not have been as strict as in many countries. "If we were to encounter the same illness with the same knowledge that we have today, I think our response would land somewhere in between what Sweden did and what the rest of the world has done," Tegnell said, according to Bloomberg.

The New York Times via Yahoo (Jul 8) reported that Sweden's approach did little for their economy when compared to other countries:

Implicit in these approaches is the assumption that governments must balance saving lives against the imperative to spare jobs, with the extra health risks of rolling back social distancing potentially justified by a resulting boost to prosperity. But Sweden’s grim result — more death and nearly equal economic damage — suggests that the supposed choice between lives and paychecks is a false one: A failure to impose social distancing can cost lives and jobs at the same time.

Business Insider via Yahoo (Jul 9) reported a day after the New York Times that daily deaths had fallen off "dramatically":

Yet coronavirus deaths in Sweden have fallen dramatically in recent days, and are now approaching zero. Between June 30 and July 6, Sweden recorded fewer than five deaths per day on all days but one.

The decline in newly diagnosed cases has been even more dramatic. In late June, Sweden diagnosed more than 1,800 people per day as COVID-19 positive. Today, just two weeks later, only one-sixth of that number are testing positive on a daily basis.

. . . Experts pointed to a host of reasons for the shifting numbers. They credited myriad factors, including the arrival of summer, with fewer people in offices creating more distance, and Sweden quietly taking steps to protect people in care homes. Johan Carlson, the director-general of Sweden's public health agency, credited the "effect of us keeping up the social distancing" for the decline.

CBS News (Jul 17) reported that the approach is popular in Sweden:

. . . That applies to care homes, too, which have been hit hard: 90% of the country's deaths have been among those over 70. Care home workers previously said they were initially told to not bring residents to hospitals, or to give patients oxygen without a doctor's approval.

CBS News correspondent Elizabeth Palmer went to Stockholm and found that, despite the worrying statistics, most Swedes still back the public health agency's approach.

. . .Stockholm residents who spoke to Palmer on the streets said they were heeding government guidelines, trying to social distance and work from home. But face coverings are still a rarity. Taking a ride on Stockholm's subway, Palmer was the only one on the train wearing a mask.

Now per Worldometer, Sweden ranks 6th when it comes to deaths per million (I'm leaving out the small countries such as Andorra and San Marino). On the other hand, as Business Insider reports, monthly deaths have declined. In April, there were 2,544. In May, it was 1,705. By June, it was down in 900. For July, 256.

Since I've argued that we won't really know if this strategy is a success for a very long time, I would point out that even though the New York Times mentions that there has been little economic benefit to their policy, Business Insider points out that the policy is popular with Swedes. I think one has to take into account how citizens of a country feel.

Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, states that he would have taken stricter restrictions. Considering that 90% of the country's deaths are those over 70, I have to assume that the policy change he would have made would be directed towards nursing homes. If they had been more careful on that front, far fewer people would have died.

Yet, like always, we have to always wait for what happens in the future until a vaccine or therapeutics come along that reduce infections or result in making this virus nothing worse than a flu. As Business Insider reports, let's see what occurs when the summer ends. As the article mentions, there are currently fewer people in the office (due to vacations). CBS News reported about the lack of face masks. With people returning to work and with few wearing masks, there should be a spike come October - November (if those assumptions drive infections). I think this is what people will be studying next.