Coronavirus: Iran Death Toll to Reach 300,000?

News media is saying that Iran is dealing with a third wave. I kind of feel like they're on a long second wave that has recently started to take another tick up based on official reporting. I do believe that what is happening in Iran in terms of cases will eventually be emulated in Europe and the U.S. Hopefully, when it comes to deaths, there will be fewer deaths due to better medical services.  

The Guardian (Oct 14) reports:

Mohammad Talebpour, the director of Sina hospital, the oldest in Tehran, predicted that if Iranians did not collectively take action and the disease persisted for another 18 months, as many as 300,000 could die. He said a third of the medical staff at his hospital had at one point contracted the disease.

Covid-19 has so far killed 29,070 Iranians, according to widely challenged official statistics, including 254 on Wednesday alone, just down on the daily record set on 12 October of 272.

. . . In an attempt to force reluctant Iranians to abide by social distancing rules, including the compulsory wearing of face masks in public, Hassan Rouhani’s government has introduced fines of up to $6.60, initially in Tehran.

Honestly, I'm not sure if a director of one hospital is qualified to make an estimate of likely deaths in the country, but it is a figure to keep in mind. On the other hand, perhaps he has inside information and is being honest about what is going on in the country.

Associated Press via New York Post (Oct 16) reports:

Iran’s capital has run out of intensive care beds as the country confronts a new surge of infections that is filling hospitals and cemeteries alike.

. . . On social media, Iranians describe chaotic scenes at overwhelmed hospitals. On state TV, gravediggers can be seen breaking new ground in vast cemeteries for virus victims, as the daily death toll shattered records Sunday, Monday and Wednesday.

. . . Deputy Health Minister Iraj Harirchi, who tested positive for the virus in March after dismissing reports of fatalities as hype, declared this week that Iran’s true death toll was likely twice the official count.

The Deputy Health Minister is admitting that deaths are under-counted by 100%. As of the time of The Guardian article, there were 29,070 deaths. This would imply around 58,000 deaths. 

Does that sound accurate? Let's go through some data points.

Back in May, I wrote a blog post where MIT and Virginia Tech estimated that 15,485 had died in Iran as of mid-March. Worldometer stated that there were 724 deaths in Iran as of March 15th. Currently there are over 30,000 deaths. Let's say that since mid-March, Iran has been more accurate with reporting (unlikely), we might assume there are at least 45,000 deaths (15,485 deaths as of mid-March plus 29,000 deaths since March 15th via Worldometer). So 13,000 fewer than what the Deputy Health Minister is saying.

BBC (Aug 3) had this estimate:

The number of deaths from coronavirus in Iran is nearly triple what Iran's government claims, a BBC Persian service investigation has found.

The government's own records appear to show almost 42,000 people died with Covid-19 symptoms up to 20 July, versus 14,405 reported by its health ministry.

. . . The data was sent to the BBC by an anonymous source.

Let's take the 42,000 figure as of July 20th. Once again going to Worldometer, there have been some 16,000 deaths since that time. That would indicate that deaths in Iran are at 57,000 (42,000 per leaked documents and 15,000 additional deaths since that time per Worldometer). So that one ties out closely to the 58,000.

Would the Deputy Health Minister want to reveal the true death count? Is it possible that he's taking the leaked documents that were sent to the BBC and then simply adding the official daily deaths? Sure, he's admitting that they are seriously undercounting deaths by 100%, but is it really maybe 200% or 300% higher? Let's just reference back to the 300,000 number mentioned by the director of one of Tehran's hospitals. Either way, based on reports out of Iran, there are serious issues in the country and leaders in Europe and the U.S. should pay attention as what happens in Iran in terms of cases are what should be anticipated to occur in Europe and the U.S.