Sweden: Moderate Party Wants Snap Elections

Yahoo has the following:

The leader of Sweden’s largest opposition party, the Moderates, called for a snap election as he tries to oust the Social Democrat-led government that rules with support of his former allies.

. . . The Social Democrats lead Sweden in coalition with the Green Party, and with the support of two long-standing allies of Kristersson, the Center Party and the Liberal Party.

. . . In Sweden, snap elections can only be called by the sitting government. But Kristersson made clear that his party wants to try to topple the Social Democrats before the next vote is due to be held in 2022 . . . As part of that push, he has moved closer to a formal cooperation with the nationalist Sweden Democrats, to confront the fragile government. 

Wuhan Coronavirus

I will say one thing: China is under counting (perhaps on purpose) the number of individuals infected by the Wuhan Coronavirus.

My first thought is that there are 5 people infected in the United States (which might sound like a laughable reason why China is undercounting, but please follow my argument as I highlight the first 2 individuals that were reported to have the virus).

One individual is in Washington State. The USA Today reported on January 23rd:

There's only one known case in the United States, the unidentified Snohomish County man in his 30s who returned from Wuhan last week and became ill.

IEA and IHS Markit Oil and Shale Reports

IEA put out a report for the month of December. I don't have access to that report, but there is a summary version.

1. They estimate that global oil demand increased by 900 kb/d versus prior year; near 75% of the increase occurred in China while India saw an increase of 135 kb/d. They see 2019 demand increasing by 1.1 mb/d and 2020 demand increasing by 1.2 mb/d.

2. Even with demand still growing by over 1 mb/d, IEA still sees an over-supply of oil as they see "2020 non-OPEC supply growth to 2.1 mb/d, global oil inventories could build by 0.7 mb/d in 1Q20."

3. If I'm reading the details correctly, OPEC + is aiming to reduction production by 0.5 mb/d from current levels. So if OPEC + is -0.5 mb/d, but non-OPEC is +2.1 mb/d then it looks like oil supply will increase by 1.6 mb/d?  That supply growth does appear to be higher than demand growth.

Shale Oil: Beyond 2020

In my previous post about shale oil, I mentioned that there is a wide range of forecasts for 2020 production growth. What about beyond 2020?

OilPrice recently consolidated some quotes from corporate executives. Here's a quote from Scott Sheffield, CEO of Pioneer Natural Resources:

The Permian basin is “going to slow down significantly over the next several years,” and he noted on the company’s latest earnings call that the company is also acting with more restraint because of pressure from shareholders not to pursue unprofitable growth. “I’ve lowered my targets and my annual targets, a lot of it has to do with…to start with the free cash flow model that public independents are adopting,” Sheffield said.

Here we see an emphasis on free cash flow.

Libya: Haftar in Tripoli

Al Jazeera has a nice summary of which "foreign actors" are supporting the Government of National Accord (GNA) or the Libyan National Army (LNA - or the Libya Arab Armed Forces)

Supporting the GNA

Qatar
Turkey

Supporting the LNA

Egypt
France
Russia
Saudi Arabia
Sudan
United Arab Emirates

Somewhat neutral

Italy
United States

The one foreign actor not mentioned is Chad mercenaries/rebels, which I'd say supports the GNA.

After that quick summary of support, there is actually a lot that is happening in Libya.

Part 2 of 2: General Soleimani: killed on January 3rd, 2020

This is part 2 of my discussion around the death of General Soleimani. Part 1 looked at the death of Soleimani, why it might be good policy and why the US took this action now.

MIGHT IRAN LEADERSHIP BE REJOINCING

Part of me thinks that Iran's political leadership is relieved that Soleimani was killed. Why? Back in May 2019, The Daily Beast tossed out this random speculation:

If Soleimani’s behavior is prelude to something, it’s probably not retirement but a future political career.

That appeared to be nothing, but speculation. Yet it is something to consider as Soleimani's wealth and power was growing. It is hard to believe that Iran's political leadership wasn't concerned.

Part 1 or 2: General Soleimani: killed on January 3rd, 2020

GENERAL SOLEIMANI DEATH/WAS THIS GOOD POLICY?

I've written about General Soleimani off and on since I started to write this blog. I guess this might be one of my final blog posts about the general though the blowback from this assassination may result in future posts.

Bloomberg had the following:

Qassem Soleimani, the Iranian general who led the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds force, has been killed in a U.S. airstrike in Baghdad, according to two people familiar with the development. The attack occurred near Baghdad international airport. Details about the assault remained unclear, but one of the people said an Iraqi militia leader, Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis was also killed.

Venezuela: Various News Items

MIGRANT CRISIS

Has the migrant crisis in Venezuela slowed down? Back in a March 2019 blog post on Venezuela's migrant crisis I had the following quote and discussion:

"Yahoo had the following to say about migration out of Venezuela:

"Without any significant change that could reverse the economic, political and social crisis in Venezuela, the total number of migrants and refugees could reach between 5.39 and 5.75 million by the end of 2019," said the report commissioned by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro.

This seems to increase the range that the Miami Herald wrote in December when they stated that the U.N. Refugee Agency had an estimate of 5.4 million by the end of 2019.

The Yahoo article seems to have an estimate of anywhere between 2.7 million to 3.4 million have already fled Venezuela from between 2015 and 2018. Not sure which numbers are from where, but one comes from the Organization of American States while the other comes from the United Nations."

Little Women: White Privilege?

Of the potential Oscar Best Picture movies that I've seen so far, Little Women is my favorite. It replaces Once Upon a Time in Hollywood. (The one movie I haven't seen yet is 1917 so my opinion might shift again.) There was a tenderness in that family that I just loved. The movie had me wanting to be part of that family.

Yet, in this "woke" era that we live in, I couldn't help but think of how one could interpret this movie. One way to view this film is from the lens of the post/current #metoo movement. Another view that I thought about was the idea of white privilege.

(Note: the following is based on what I saw in the film and doesn't include source material that might provide additional context on the life of the March family.)

The film is set largely among the wealthy. Yes, the March family throughout much of the film is not wealthy, but I would argue the family does come from wealth. Aunt March mentions this to Jo early in the movie. She mentions that she is wealthy and that Jo's father and mother lost their money. (I forget the exact wording used.) This surely implies that Jo's grandparents had been well off and set both Aunt March and Father March off well in life. Now it isn't because Jo's parents lost their money due to gambling, alcohol, and bad investments. It can be argued that the family lost their money doing charity work during the Civil War.