My first thought is that there are 5 people infected in the United States (which might sound like a laughable reason why China is undercounting, but please follow my argument as I highlight the first 2 individuals that were reported to have the virus).
One individual is in Washington State. The USA Today reported on January 23rd:
There's only one known case in the United States, the unidentified Snohomish County man in his 30s who returned from Wuhan last week and became ill.
By last week, that would imply that he returned by January 18th at the latest.
The other known individual is from Chicago. The Chicago Tribune writes:
A Chicago woman in her 60s returned from a trip to Wuhan, China on Jan. 13 and a few days later began experiencing symptoms and was admitted to the hospital where infection control measures were taken, according to the CDC.
Per this Business Insider time graph, there were between 41 and 139 cases of Coronavirus between the dates of January 18th through January 23rd. Maybe both individuals were at the Huanan Seafood Wholesale Market where the virus is thought to have originated. But seriously, what are the chances that two Americans (who probably don't know each other) got infected in a city of 11 million (which is about the population size of Los Angeles County) when only between 41 and 139 individuals had the coronavirus? Those two must be very unlucky to have come across individuals that were sick. Admittedly, the 41 - 139 would be known cases and there were likely more out there who were sick, but you'd think it couldn't be that much greater than 139. Maybe 10x, which would get you at 1,400. Even then, what are the chances that two random Americans would come across someone with the virus if so few had the virus?
My other thought is why would China be taking such drastic measures? Either they're being overly cautious or something has them freaked out. Via Al Jazeera we know that China as of Sunday January 26th had done the following:
1. China has stepped up travel restrictions, in effect sealing off Wuhan and more than a dozen other cities, curbing the movement of some 56 million people amid fears that the transmission rate will accelerate over the peak Lunar New Year travel season.
2. Hong Kong's popular theme parks Disneyland and Ocean Park were closed on Sunday to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus, state media CCTV reported . . . Shanghai Disneyland was closed from Saturday.
And that the US was taking the following actions in China, which is another thought on why we should think this virus has spread much wider than is being reported:
3. The US State Department said it would move staff at its Wuhan consulate to the United States and offer a limited number of seats to other US citizens on a flight out of the city scheduled for Tuesday.
So should we be concerned in the US?
USA Today takes the viewpoint that there is a far more deadlier killer in America:
Influenza has already sickened at least 13 million Americans this winter, hospitalizing 120,000 and killing 6,600, according to the CDC. And flu season hasn’t even peaked. In a bad year, the flu kills up to 61,000 Americans.
Worldwide, the flu causes up to 5 million cases of severe illness worldwide and kills up to 650,000 people every year, according to the World Health Organization.
CNN appears to take a different viewpoint:
While Chinese officials have a responsibility to limit the spread of the outbreak, global health officials in Geneva need to take quick action. By declaring a global emergency, WHO would set in motion coordination efforts among various countries and encourage UN member states to institute strict surveillance measures. While some initial panic could result, WHO's leadership would jolt passive governments into action.
Let's just say that the flu in the US so far has killed around 0.05% of those who have come down with the flu. We know that the coronavirus has killed 56 out of 2,000 (as of January 25th). That's almost 3%. It would appear that the coronavirus is far more dangerous than getting the flu.
Time will tell if USA Today or CNN is taking the correct approach on this.
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