Venezuela: Various News Items

MIGRANT CRISIS

Has the migrant crisis in Venezuela slowed down? Back in a March 2019 blog post on Venezuela's migrant crisis I had the following quote and discussion:

"Yahoo had the following to say about migration out of Venezuela:

"Without any significant change that could reverse the economic, political and social crisis in Venezuela, the total number of migrants and refugees could reach between 5.39 and 5.75 million by the end of 2019," said the report commissioned by OAS Secretary General Luis Almagro.

This seems to increase the range that the Miami Herald wrote in December when they stated that the U.N. Refugee Agency had an estimate of 5.4 million by the end of 2019.

The Yahoo article seems to have an estimate of anywhere between 2.7 million to 3.4 million have already fled Venezuela from between 2015 and 2018. Not sure which numbers are from where, but one comes from the Organization of American States while the other comes from the United Nations."

Reuters wrote the following on December 1st:

More than 4 million Venezuelans have left their country in recent years, fleeing severe food and medicine shortages and hyperinflation. Nearly 1.5 million have settled in neighboring Colombia, many arriving with scant resources. 

It really looks like current migration out of the country in 2019 came in far lower than anticipated. (Below, I quote a 4.5 million figure so current estimates are 1 million fewer than anticipated.) The main focus of the article is about the backlash that Venezuelan migrants are facing in various South American countries:

A mass deportation on Monday of 59 Venezuelans who Colombia’s migration agency said were involved in vandalism during the marches only helped fuel prejudice, Rodriguez said . . . Neither the rumors nor the deportations are unique to Colombia as the exodus of Venezuelans stirs tensions in neighboring countries from Brazil to Chile. In June, Peru flew home hundreds of Venezuelans with criminal records amid allegations that migrants were responsible for a rise in crime.

Columbia has dealt with protests in Bogota, which helps explain the first sentence of the quote.

RUSSIA SUPPORT

President Nicolas Maduro has been able to stay in power even with sanctions and pollical pressure from the United States. This is somewhat due to the support of China and Russia, which provided Venezuela with significant debt financing. Russia's support might continue as OilPrice writes the following:

In its Q3 results presentation published today, Rosneft said that PDVSA’s debt as at September 30, 2019, had dropped to US$800 million, down from US$1.1 billion as at the end of the second quarter this year. Rosneft has extended US$6 billion of loans to PDVSA, which needs to be fully redeemed through crude oil supplies by the end of this year. Last year, Venezuela repaid US$2.3 billion of the loan it had received from Rosneft years ago, but the Latin American country still owed another US$2.3 billion, excluding interests, Rosneft said in its 2018 results release in February this year. 

It definitely looks like Venezuela is doing their best to keep Russia happy.

OPPOSITION LEADER JUAN GUAIDO

Reuters reports that on January 5th, that Juan Guaido lost his position as congress chief. There were some shenanigans used to prevent him from winning the position. (In some way, it is almost amusing.) Apparently, there were 5 sequential checkpoints that politicians to go through. Also, an individual named Luis Parra took over the position and apparently was given the position without even a vote count.

The US put a lot of hope behind Juan Guaido earlier this year. A lot has changed since then, obviously. Prior to the vote, US News and World Report reported:

Seizing on the nation's desperation, Guaidó drew masses into the streets 11 months ago when he claimed to be Venezuela's legitimate interim president after congress declared Maduro's re-election illegal.

The bold move overnight turned Guaidó into the nation’s most-popular politician since Chavez burst onto the political scene in the early 1990s. More than 60% of Venezuelans viewed him favorably in February, according to Caracas-based polling firm Datanalisis, with many believing he would rid them of Maduro within three months.

. . . Today that support has sunk by 20 percentage points, said Leon, a sign that Venezuelans are starting to think that removing Maduro from power may be impossible.

This article mentions that an estimated 4.5 million have left the country.

The New York Times reported prior to the vote:

Elliott Abrams, the State Department’s special envoy for Venezuela, said other lawmakers have reported being offered hundreds of thousands of dollars to vote against Juan Guaidó, the leader of the National Assembly who faces internal re-election on Jan 5. “What’s going on here is simple,” Mr. Abrams told reporters in Washington. “The regime is using a combination of threats, arrests and bribes — up to $500,000 per vote, we have been told — to stop the re-election of Juan Guaidó.”

If Guaido's support is only at 20%, I'm not sure Maduro need to do what he did.

The New York Times obviously takes a swipe at Maduro while US News and World Report looks at the negatives related to Guaido. To me, US News and World Report is more accurate. The US went with Guaido in an attempt to overthrow Maduro. He failed and support behind him is dropping off. I almost suspect that the State Department was attempting to come up with an excuse for why Guaido would lose his leadership post.

What will the US do in response to this shame vote? At the moment, considering that the US just took out Iran's General Soleimani, maybe not much other than words.

VENEZUELA MILITARY FACILITY RAIDED

Reuters had this interesting piece of news about a raid at a Venezuelan military facility that resulted in the death of one soldier and the theft of weapons that were later recovered:

Information Minister Jorge Rodriguez said six people had been arrested in connection with the attack in southern Bolivar state, near the border with Brazil. He added that the raiders had been trained at “paramilitary camps in Colombia” and had received assistance from Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. 

Now can one really trust Venezuela politicians to tell the truth? Probably not, but this does appear to be a bold move by some group. Something to keep an eye on for future raids.