Iran: After the Protests, is Rouhani playing some palace intrigue?

In early January, I wrote a post about the protests happening in Iran. Since that time the protests appear to have largely subsided (though there is an interesting smaller protest going on that I will get to later in this post).

Not only have the protests subsided, but it appears that the government is feeling confident that they won't return. How would I draw that conclusion?



First, per Reuters, a popular social media app called Telegram that was blocked during the protests is no longer blocked. Of course, one could argue that the government had to unblock the app due to economic reasons. As per the article:

But officials said hundreds of companies using the app for their marketing and sales had been hard-hit by the social media restrictions, and President Hassan Rouhani was quoted as saying about 100,000 people had lost their jobs.

Second, per Reuters, Iran freed 440 people that were arrested during the protests. Estimates were that 1,000 - 3,700 individuals were arrested during the protests.

Combining the two, I think indicates that the government is feeling confident that they have things under control.

Some recent political moves by President Hassan Rouhani make for some palace intrigue; however. If you read my early January post, you'll learn via the LA Times that the protests were encouraged by Supreme Leader Khamenei to put pressure on Rouhani. The protests didn't go according to plan and both Rouhani and Khamenei became the targets of the protests.

In mid-January, I wrote a post regarding how parts of Iran's economy is controlled by the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp, which just happens to report to Khamenei.

Obviously, Rouhani isn't stupid. He realizes that the protests were originally orchestrated by Khamenei.

Bloomberg reports on the political move now being made by Rouhani.

Iran’s armed forces, some of which are under U.S. sanctions, must divest from energy assets and other businesses to help save the Persian Gulf nation’s economy, President Hassan Rouhani said.

I find this interesting, because also recently General Soleimani (a general of the Quds Force, a division of the Revolutionary Guards) made a deal with Iraq where a pipeline from the oil fields in Kirkuk would be build to go through Iran. One couldn't help but wonder if this deal was simply there to line the pockets of Soleimani.

Is Rouhani attempting to weaken his political rivals? And how risky is it to try to take on the Iranian military?

The Bloomberg article has another interesting quote:

The government needs to reduce its dependence on crude as a source of official revenue and must boost contributions from taxes, Rouhani said.

As has been argued by a BP economist, with peak demand in oil a very distinct possibility in the not to distant future (let's say 2040s), oil enters the age of abundance where the goal will be to pump oil out of the ground as quickly as possible. That means that at some point, oil dependent nations will not be generating the necessarily oil revenues to fund their government expenditures. Saudi Arabia already realizes this via their Vision 2030 goal. It would appear that Iran is also realizing this fact.

I did say earlier that a smaller group of protests were still occurring. Per CNN:

Police in the Iranian capital, Tehran, have arrested 29 people for their involvement in protests against the country's compulsory headscarf law.

This would appear to indicate that Iranian women are attempting to launch a #MeToo movement.

If interested, Salon has an article written by Negar Mottahedeh who was born in Iran, but left during the Iranian Revolution. She puts some historical context into this potential growing movement.