Protests: Iran First?

As the Western world moved towards 2018, protests started up in Iran. These protests were the biggest since the Green Movement in 2009. Though, for me, this wasn't anticipated, it doesn't come as a surprise. The question is: will they last or just follow a similar path as the Green Movement?

Both Reuters and the LA Times have interesting summaries of what is going on. The following three reasons appear to be driving the protestors:

1. Economic
2. Corruption/Graft
3. Military adventures outside of Iran

The LA Times article has an interesting note:

A rally began Thursday in Mashhad, Iran’s second largest city, much the same way as protesters, reportedly egged on by Rouhani’s arch-conservative rivals, railed against his handling of the economy. But the demonstrators quickly turned against the hardliners, led by Khamenei, whom many blame for blocking economic reforms while tolerating corruption and funding Shiite Muslim militias abroad.

What that quote is saying is that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei encouraged protests against President Hassan Rouhani. This would imply not everyone in the government is on the same page. Also, wouldn't it be amusing if this protest, encouraged by government leaders, grew into something bigger that took down the government?

Well, I shouldn't get ahead of myself on a revolution in Iran. As per Time, the Revolutionary Guard has stayed on the sidelines, but they did issue a warning:

The [Revolutionary Guard] — whose mandate is to safeguard the Islamic Revolution — warned late Saturday that it would respond with “a hard punch” if demonstrations didn’t stop.


The Revolutionary Guard reports to Khamenei. To me, that's another amusing outcome from the protests. Khamenei encourages the protests, misjudges and might now need to turn to the Revolutionary Guard to keep both the Supreme Leader and the President in power.

Newsweek (via Yahoo) had this piece of speculation on why protests started up in one city:

Kermanshah, in northwestern Iran, was rocked by deadly earthquakes last month that killed 600. The widespread death and destruction in the area close to the country’s western frontier with Iraq has been blamed on poor building regulation, particularly in public housing projects.

If the earthquake is an underlying reason, the protests in Kermanshah fall under corruption/graft.

Also, falling under corruption, I previously wrote a blog post where I suggested the possibility that General Qassem Soleimani (general of Quds forces, which is a part of the Revolutionary Guard) was profiting from oil deals with Iraq.

One reason I'm calling this blog post "Iran First?" is specifically driven by the fact that protesters are mentioning the military adventures outside of Iran. I will be getting into this more in two blog posts coming up later this week and early next week. Essentially, Iran has been funding a proxy war against Saudi Arabia. Examples include Hezbollah in Lebanon, support for President Bashar al-Assad in Syria and Houthi rebels in Yemen. Oil profits driven by the nuclear deal probably helped fund these adventures versus being used to help rebuild Iran's economy. The protestors seem to be saying, "Hey, think about our economic lives first!"

As with all restriction regimes (BBC link), social media outlets have been blocked in Iran. This includes Instagram and Telegram (a social media app popular in Iran).