Venezuela: Migrant Crisis Update

I wrote a post in mid-November about the crisis in Venezuela. I touched on the refugee crisis. At the time, The LA Times estimated that there were 300,000 - 400,000 Venezuelans living in Colombia. It's time to take another look at the situation.

Via Reuters, Colombia's President Juan Manuel Santos is requesting international aid to assist with the refugee crisis in his country. Per the article, the current estimate of Venezuelans living in Colombia is 550,000. So the numbers have gone from potentially 400,000 to 550,000 in just a couple months. (Of course, I quote another article that puts the potential number even higher.) There are also a number of Venezuelans who still live in Venezuela, but shop in Colombia. Per the article:



About 1.3 million Venezuelans have registered for the special migration card that allows them to cross the border by day to buy food and other products that are scarce in their own country.

There is also a sentence about professionals fleeing Venezuela.

While Venezuelan professionals like doctors and engineers have found work in big cities or in Colombia’s oil industry, most of the poor have settled in Colombian border towns.

The article doesn't put a figure on how many professionals have left Venezuela, but losing engineers further damages the oil industry in Venezuela and just makes it more difficult to turn that industry around. It should be noted that oil prices appear to have stabilized around the $60/barrel level. In fact, oil prices have been above $50/barrel for a significant part of the last 12 months (there were some points where it fell below $50). Yet, there doesn't appear to be any word about a stabilized oil industry in Venezuela. In the near future, I'll do a write-up about that situation which appears to be deteriorating instead of improving or stabilizing.

Also per Reuters, the refugee crisis is hitting Brazil. Though a total refugee count isn't provided, the article does state that there are approximately 40,000 refugees in the city of Boa Vista, which is the capital of Roraima, a state that borders Venezuela.

Another Reuters article mentions that Brazil is sending troops to Roraima to help with the situation. According to the article, Brazil will still keep the borders open.

The Guardian also has an article about the crisis. Like Reuters, they quote the 550,000 figure of Venezuelans in Colombia; however, they also mention that there could be more than 1 million Venezuelans living in Colombia. Here's a quote that goes to the fact that Venezuela is losing key personnel:

He arrived in Cúcuta last month and while he looks for work, he is busking in a city park, playing a harp and singing folk songs alongside a fellow Venezuelan, who strums guitar. Bystanders toss the equivalent of about £8 ($11) a day into an open guitar case – which is more than García earned as an oil worker back in Venezuela.

There's a very interest piece of information in those two sentences. A mechanic (I left that sentence out) in the oil industry is now making more money busking in Colombia versus working in the oil industry. I suspect that some day he'll find a job working in Colombia's oil industry, making more than $11 a day. Based on this fact, it is a wonder that Venezuela's oil industry has any mechanics.

The other fact that I think should be pointed out via these various articles is that in my November post, the Los Angeles Times had a maximum number of refugees at 400,000. Now, the generally accepted number is 550,000. There appears to be a large acceleration going on here. This brings up another issue that the below discusses.

The Deutsche Welle (DW - Germany) has an interesting note:

In the face of a looming humanitarian crisis, a confederation known as the Lima Group has called for "a crisis summit to be convened to discuss the situation in Venezuela and to organize and coordinate humanitarian aid." The Lima Group consists of 11 Latin American countries plus Canada.

The article also mentions that Colombia is considering setting up refugee camps, but is concerned about doing so as it might encourage even more refugees to cross the border.

Brookings has an op-ed arguing that the UN should get involved to help countries like Colombia and Brazil deal with the crisis. It also argues that the World Bank and the US should provide financial support to these countries.

I agree with Brookings. The world needs to support these countries that are helping with the Venezuelan crisis. And I'd also suggest a perhaps ruthless action be taken on the part of the US. The US should stop the financial sanctions against Venezuela. Instead, to punish the government, it should take in as many refugees as possible that have skill sets in the oil industry. Chevron, Exxon Mobile, Conoco Phillips, etc etc should be setting up shop in Colombia along with US government officials to interview potential oil recruits/immigrants.