Movie Review: The Razor's Edge (1946)

The Razor's Edge has a philosophical look at life. The movie opens up shortly after World War I has ended. America is filled with excitement. There is an understanding that we will become the greatest nation in the world. And, of course, since this movie was made in 1946, the outcome was already known to the audience watching this film. Larry Darrell (Tyrone Power) is a World War I veteran and is engaged to marry Isabel Bradley (Gene Tierney). Isabel's uncle, Elliott Templeton (Clifton Webb), is concerned about the future marriage, because Larry doesn't appear to have any motivation to take part in helping the United States fulfill it's destiny. Instead he wishes to "loaf" around for a period of time on his inheritance of $3,000 a year. Now $3,000 in today's terms is close to $47,000. I suppose depending on where one lives in the United States now this would be considered lower middle class or higher end poverty. We learn that this is also a concern of Isabel's. Larry and Isabel decide to postpone the marriage for a year, which will allow Larry to spend a year in Paris. 

There are some interesting dynamics here. Larry's life was saved by a friend. The friend sacrificed his life for Larry's during the war. This causes Larry to want to examine the meaning of one's life versus striving to make America a dominant country. He is willing to live a simplified life, perhaps eventually taking a low paid job to help better support his family. This clashes with Isabel and Elliot who are wealthy and can't imagine not living with such wealth. Another interesting point is that even though Isabel and Elliot are snobbish about money, it doesn't necessarily prevent them from associated with other classes of society. Somehow Larry and Isabel did meet and fall in love. Isabel also is friends with the Sophie and Bob MacDonald (Anne Baxter and Frank Latimore) who appear to have a middle class lifestyle. 

Homeless in California: Looking to Buy Motels

This LA Times (Aug 5, 2021) article is focused on Gov. Gavin Newsom seemingly playing politics in order to hold off the recall election so is therefore dated, but there was some interesting data points in the article:

The latest state budget commits $12 billion over the next two years to not just more motel purchases and funding for mental health care facilities but also encampment cleanups and hazardous waste removal.

. . . The state assisted local governments in purchasing hotel rooms and apartments for 6,000 people at a cost of nearly $750 million — the largest expansion of shelter and housing for homeless people in the the state’s history.

Bribes for Grades

Sometimes you just need money. The New York Times (Aug 5) has this story:

One math lesson Prof. Edward C. Ennels taught at Baltimore City Community College was, according to prosecutors, pretty simple: $150 for a C; $250 for a B; and $500 for an A.

. . . Over the course of seven months last year, Mr. Ennels, 45, solicited bribes from 112 students, and received 10 payments from nine students, totaling $2,815, the Maryland attorney general, Brian E. Frosh, said in a statement on Thursday.

In another scheme, Mr. Ennels sold online access codes that enabled students to view instructional material and complete assignments, prosecutors said. From 2013 to 2020, he sold 694 access codes for about $90 each.

They didn't add up the selling of access codes. It comes to $62,460. So he was doing this for 8 years. I'm deducing that it was the selling of grades that tripped him up and not the selling of access codes. Maybe students just thought this was an additional fee such as buying books? 

The excuse? He had a gambling addiction and in fact didn't live a "lavish lifestyle." I'm not sure that one could live a lavish lifestyle on $65,000 over 8 years.

Coronavirus: Dementia and Alzheimer's

I recently wrote a COVID-19 blog post about a study affiliated with the University of Oxford that mentioned that "the loss of grey matter in memory-related regions of the brain may in turn increase the risk of these patients of developing dementia in the longer term." USA Today (Jul29) has an article that looks into this, as well. Though the title of the article mentions dementia, the content is more focused on Alzheimer's.

Researchers are concerned about the possibility that lingering brain symptoms might lead to dementia years or decades later.

. . . Dr. George Vavougios, the lead author of one of the new studies, said he's concerned about the frequency of these brain problems. About half of participants in his study and others are showing cognitive problems after infection, regardless of their age.

Coronavirus: Drop in US Life Expectancy

One knew that a story about a decline in US life expectancy due to COVID-19 would eventually come out. NPR (Jul 21) reports:

Life expectancy in the United States declined by a year and a half in 2020, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, which says the coronavirus is largely to blame.

COVID-19 contributed to 74% of the decline in life expectancy from 78.8 years in 2019 to 77.3 years in 2020, according to the CDC's National Center for Health Statistics.

Since a significant percentage of deaths also occurred in 2021, one would have to assume that there won't be a jump back up to 78.8 years in 2021.

Movie Review: To Live and Die in L.A.

To Live and Die in L.A. primarily occurs over a 42 day time period in Los Angeles. The movie starts off with the United States Secret Service protecting the president in Los Angeles. One of those agents, Richard Chance, notices a suspicious individual in a hotel. He chases after him and eventually tracks him down to the rooftop of the hotel. The individual is a suicide bomber, explosives wrapped around his chest. Also, climbing up to the rooftop from the floor below is Richard Chance's boss, Jimmy Hart. Jimmy Hart grabs the terrorist from behind and throws him off the roof. 

After that scene, we're introduced to Rick Masters who is a counterfeiter. He is in a warehouse, printing up fake $20 bills. We're introduced to a rather complex process and see how the bills are created from start to finish: from the drawing up of the bills to tossing the bills into a dryer to create a look of used bills.

We learn that Jimmy is just three days away from retirement, but has one last job to do. Another role of the Secret Service is to track down counterfeiting operations. He heads to the desert to track down Rick Masters. Somehow the Secret Service has figured out where the warehouse is. When he gets to the warehouse, he is shot dead. 

A few days later, Richard and team head to the warehouse and find Jimmy's body, dumped into a garbage container. All the equipment has already been moved out except for the dryer (which honestly seems odd). Richard than takes over as lead investigator to track down Rick Masters. He is given a new partner named John Vukovich.  

Coronavirus: Getting Better at Airborne Transmission?

Is the coronavirus getting better at airborne transmission? I'm not sure the New York Times via Yahoo (Oct 2) came across anything new here:

Newer variants of the coronavirus such as alpha and delta are highly contagious, infecting far more people than the original virus. Two new studies offer a possible explanation: The virus is evolving to spread more efficiently through air.

I don't know, how else would the new variants spread so rapidly? I think we've already ruled out the fact that the virus spreads efficiently via surfaces. What the article does indicate is that people should be shifting to N95 masks. Of course, the article doesn't state that explicitly, but what exactly is considered more protective than a surgical mask?

Even loose-fitting cloth and surgical masks block about half of the fine aerosols containing virus, according to the study of people infected with variants, published this month in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases.

Still, at least in some crowded spaces, people may want to consider switching to more protective masks, said Don Milton, an aerosol expert at the University of Maryland who led the research.

Coronavirus: Long Term Symptoms Equal Future Disability Expenses?

The long term symptoms related to COVID-19 have been well researched: ranging from brain fog to lung problems. Could we face a future where these long term symptoms result in much higher health expenses in the future?

Scientific American (July 6) addresses a concern that millions of Americans could face permanent disability:

In addition to the personal suffering, long-term disability comes with a staggering price tag—including increased health care costs; reduction or loss of employment; and economic strain on worker’s compensation and disability support programs. It’s been estimated that as much as 30 percent of the COVID health burden could arise from COVID-induced disability. As physician and University of Massachusetts medical professor Steven Martin recently told NPR, “If we end up with a million people with ongoing symptoms that are debilitating, that is a tremendous burden for each of these individuals, but also for our health care system and our society.”

The article states that we need to consider the following:

1. We must research disability due to long COVID.

2. We need clinics to deal with those suffering from long COVID.

3. We need to look into worker's compensation programs.

4. Federal disability programs.

In terms of worker's compensation, here in California we have SDI (State Disability Insurance). The 2021 SDI rate is 1.2% up to a wage of $128,298. Per Wikipedia, since 2002, the SDI rate has increased from 0.9% to 1.2% while eligible wages have increased from $46,327 to $128,298. As one can see, it just goes up and up and up -- both on a tax and income level. Both those numbers are likely to continue to increase if long COVID-19 becomes a serious problem for the state. (As a side note, I use 2002, because Wikipedia mentions that this is when the Paid Family Leave program was put in place to cover individuals who take time off work to care for seriously ill family members or to bond with a child. Considering how much both the tax rate and eligible wages have increased, it does make one think that there is some abuse going on here.)

Also, if the worst case scenario plays out, might an investor want to invest in retirement / nursing care REITS (I do own some investments -- to be transparent)?  

Oil: Crisis Coming in 2022?

OilPrice (Jun 17) looked at the lack of investment and how that might impact future oil supply. This lack of investment has been in dramatic decline since 2014. The OilPrice article looked specifically at shale and how even if there is a rush to investment more in shale, it might take time for oil production to come back to previous levels:

Thanks to capital restraint, billions of dollars of equipment have been written down and scrapped. Employees have found new careers, and are reluctant to return given the turmoil in the industry. But, even if we could scramble that much hardware and talent to meet the moment, it wouldn't matter.

How lacking is oil investments?

In fact, an article carried in the Wall Street Journal noted that “Planned investment in oil supply globally falls about $600 billion short of what will be needed to meet projected demand by 2030, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. analyst Christyan Malek. 

API (Feb 24) looks into how we could have a crisis as soon as 2022.

First: global oil production in existing fields decline between 4% - 7% based on level of investments in those fields.

Los Angeles Times Festival of Books: Eastside Punks - A Screening and Conversation

My final 2021 Los Angeles Times Festival of Books conversation was about the Eastside Punk rock scene from the late 1970s and onwards. It was a nice final conversation to catch as I loved the memories from the participants. Now I have to say that I hope this is the last time I have to watch the Festival of Books online. I've now spend both 2020 and 2021 attending it online and hopefully 2022 can be spent catching it in person at the USC campus (I'm assuming).

Here are some bio information that I took from the LA Times website>

Jimmy Alvarado has authored numerous interviews, articles, and short films spotlighting the Eastside scene. An episode of his Eastside Punks documentary series, about The Brat, was named Best Documentary Short at the 2020 Highland Park Independent Film festival. 

Teresa Covarrubias was the vocalist for The Brat. Their debut EP Attitudes is a prized item among collectors and Straight Outta East L.A., a double album packaging it with other rare tracks, was released in 2017. 

Coronavirus: Causes the Brain to Shrink?

I've read a lot about various long haul symptoms from COVID-19, but I think this is the first time I've read about a study that suggests that the brain shrinks. Now I've read about impacts to the brain via brain fog, but a shrinking of brain size? Ouch. 

Fox News via Yahoo (Jun 18) reports:

Researchers affiliated with the University of Oxford posted findings ahead of peer review this week to medRxiv, drawing on data from the U.K. Biobank. They compared brain scans taken pre-pandemic to scans taken about three years later among 394 coronavirus patients and 388 matched controls. A further analysis included 15 hospitalized patients compared with 379 people who hadn’t been hospitalized.

"Our findings thus consistently relate to loss of grey matter in limbic cortical areas directly linked to the primary olfactory and gustatory system," or areas in the brain related to the perception of smell and taste, authors wrote.

Coronavirus: Lab Leak Part 20 - Was Dr. Fauci Lying about Funding Gain-of-Function Research?

I have no clue who is right or who is wrong or if this is a big deal or not, but since I've been posting on the lab leak hypothesis, an interested piece of information came out recently on Zerohedge (Oct 22) reports:

In a letter addressed to Rep. James Comer (R-KY), NIH Principal Deputy Director Lawrence A. Tabak cites a "limited experiment" to determine whether "spike proteins from naturally occurring bat coronaviruses circulating in China were capable of binding to the human ACE2 receptor in a mouse model." According to the letter, humanized mice infected with the modified bat virus "became sicker" than those exposed to an unmodified version of the same bat coronavirus.

Oil: Shale Growth in Decline?

Though this Dallas News (Sep 20) opinion piece is more of a look at how US shale has helped the United States in terms of geopolitical ramifications, it does make the following point: 

When investors looked at the shale companies, it was no longer growth at any cost but rather growth at what cost. As share prices declined, companies were forced to reset their businesses, get their spending under control, and live within their budgets — and thus deliver returns to investors either in the form of dividends or share buybacks . . . 

The shale industry has changed in another way. While the independents have scaled back, the majors have stepped up . . . When it was all added up, the growth in U.S. output seemed destined to slow to a much smaller annual increase, far less than the hectic pace registered in preceding years.

Coronavirus: Another Long Term Symptoms Study

As time goes on, more and more studies are coming out about long term symptoms due to COVID-19. One such study is from Fair Health, a non-profit organization, that the New York Times via Yahoo (Jun 15) reported on:

The study, tracking the health insurance records of nearly 2 million people in the United States who contracted the coronavirus last year, found that one month or more after their infection, almost one-quarter — 23% — of them sought medical treatment for new conditions.

. . . Post-COVID health problems were common even among people who had not gotten sick from the virus at all, the study found. While nearly half of patients who were hospitalized for COVID-19 experienced subsequent medical issues, so did 27% of people who had mild or moderate symptoms and 19% of people who said they were asymptomatic.

The most common symptom was pain and breathing difficulties. Many also had malaise and fatigue. All age groups were impacted.

Now 23% is a high figure, but in one way you could view this as good news. Back in June 2020 a report came out that estimated a much higher estimate. DutchNews.Nl (Jun 12, 2020) reported that some 95% of 1,600 respondents stated that they had trouble with normal day to day activities three months after infection. The 27% does appear to align with a Lancet Psychiatry study that estimated that 33.62% of COVID-19 patients had neurological or psychiatric issues.

Oil: Peak Supply Comes Before Peak Demand?

There is a race out there: will peak demand or peak supply come first when it comes to oil? Per Oil Price (Oct 26), the answer just might be peak supply.

Why?

Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say.

Some other notes from the article:

1. OPEC expects oil to peak in the mid-2030s, but hold steady at those levels until 2045.