Oil: Peak Supply Comes Before Peak Demand?

There is a race out there: will peak demand or peak supply come first when it comes to oil? Per Oil Price (Oct 26), the answer just might be peak supply.

Why?

Chronic underinvestment in new oil supply since the 2015 crisis and the pressure on oil and gas companies to curb emissions and even “keep it in the ground” will likely lead to peak global oil production earlier than previously expected, analysts say.

Some other notes from the article:

1. OPEC expects oil to peak in the mid-2030s, but hold steady at those levels until 2045.

2. Demand could hit pre-COVID levels within months.

3. A cold winter could cause serious problems.

The article references a Reuters article, which I believe is this one dated Oct 25. Here's what they say about investments:

In its most conservative status quo, or stated policies scenario (STEPS), however, average annual spending on oil to meet demand would need to rise sharply to above $500 billion - more than at any time in the last five years.

I think by conservative, they mean most realistic scenario.

When might this result in significant imbalances between supply and demand?

Energy consultancy FGE said, "Although there are huge concerns regarding the state of upstream oil investment i.e. that, as it stands, it is insufficient to meet growing demand in the years ahead, this is a problem for 2023 and beyond not for the next 12 to 18 months."