Libya: Egypt's Support of the LNA

The last time I took a look at Libya, the Libyan National Army was forced to abandon their positions around Tripoli. What was the next move going to be for their allies and what would be the moves made by the Government of National Accord in Tripoli (GNA)? As for the GNA, it looks like they (with Turkey's help) are pushing toward Sirte. This definitely isn't sitting well with Egypt.

Al-Monitor (Jun 25) reports:

President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi's warning that Egypt could intervene militarily in neighboring Libya if Turkish-backed government forces were to advance on the eastern Libyan city of Sirte has drawn mixed reactions from the parties to the conflict in Libya.

Coronavirus: Outbreak gaining steam in Venezuela?

There are a handful of countries I felt for sure the coronvirus would spread rapidly once it hit them: Haiti, North Korea, Yemen and Venezuela. Who knows what is happening in North Korea, but the articles I've read from Yemen aren't encouraging. I'll need to follow up on Hati shortly. But today's post is about Venezuela. Per Worldometer, the country has far fewer cases than other Latin American countries that have much smaller populations such as Bolivia, Chile and Ecuador. But is this true? Maybe, as the country went into a strict lockdown, but there are a couple articles out about the city of Maracaibo that has a population of 1.65 million that doesn't paint a great story.

Coronavirus: Is the virus weakening?

There is an interesting claim coming out of Italy that the virus is weakening.

Washington Post (1 Jun) reported:

Alberto Zangrillo, head of San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, roiled the global public health community on Sunday when he told RAI, the national TV station, that “the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” with patients showing minute amounts of virus in nasal swabs. Zangrillo theorized in a follow-up interview with The Washington Post that something different may be occurring “in the interaction between the virus and the human airway receptors.”

. . . Zangrillo’s clinical observations are more likely a reflection of the fact that with the peak of the outbreak long past, there is less virus in circulation, and people may be less likely to be exposed to high doses of it. In addition, only severely sick people were likely to be tested early on, compared with the situation now when even those with mild symptoms are more likely to get swabbed, experts said.

Coronavirus: Mutant Strain More Deadly or Contagious?

There have been various articles out in the news media reporting on coronavirus findings from scientists and doctors. One set of articles deals with how there might be a more deadly mutation of the virus. South China Morning Post (20 April) reported:

Professor Li Lanjuan and her colleagues from Zhejiang University found within a small pool of patients many mutations not previously reported. These mutations included changes so rare that scientists had never considered they might occur.

They also confirmed for the first time with laboratory evidence that certain mutations could create strains deadlier than others.

. . . The deadliest mutations in the Zhejiang patients had also been found in most patients across Europe, while the milder strains were the predominant varieties found in parts of the United States, such as Washington state, according to their paper.


. . . To verify the theory, Li and colleagues infected cells with strains carrying different mutations. The most aggressive strains could generate 270 times as much viral load as the weakest type. These strains also killed the cells the fastest. 

Coronavirus: Brazil to pass the US in deaths?

Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has taken an approach to the coronavirus pandemic that makes it look like Sweden is acting like China. (Now not all the Brazilian states followed along with his approach.) A forecast from the University of Washington is saying that this approach is going to result in some very negative consequences for the country.

CBS News (Jun 18) reports:

Thus far, the U.S. has suffered roughly 70,000 more COVID-19 related deaths than Brazil. However, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), part of the University of Washington's School of Medicine, projects Brazil's death toll will surpass the United States' sometime in July, according to its latest modeling.

"Brazil basically needs those informal workers to go out there to keep the economy growing and so, it's exposed and given confusing messages to the poorer and most vulnerable Brazilians," [Gimena Sánchez-Garzoli, the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA)'s director of the Andes] said. "At the same time, he's fighting with the states and local authorities who have tried to impose guidelines and measures to try to contain the contagion... There's now a major crisis throughout the country, making it the epicenter in the Americas and it's hitting disproportionately the poorer areas of Brazil."

Coronavirus: Health Care Workers Across the Globe

Health care workers across the globe are getting infected with the coronavirus. Here are some news articles I came across that discussed this topic:

The LA Times wrote about Mexico:

In Mexico, there is a disconnect between healthcare workers’ persistent complaints about a lack of safety equipment and government assurances that all is well.

Since the first coronavirus case was recorded in Mexico in late February, doctors, nurses and others have regularly taken to the streets to protest a lack of sanitary gear.

. . . In recent weeks, Mexican authorities have hailed the arrival of more than a dozen jumbo jets ferrying tons of supplies from China. But practitioners call much of the gear unusable — wobbly face shields, flimsy gowns and boot covers, and slender masks providing minimal protection. Many workers purchase their own equipment online or from local distributors.

I believe it was on Twitter where I saw health care workers laughing at the personal protective equipment that was arriving from China. Here's a perfect example of the government saying they've bought enough protective equipment, but when the boxes are opened up, those who actually need it realize the product is junk.

Coronavirus: Are Masks Effective?

When coronavirus started to spread across the globe, I noticed a lot of arguments between scientists about wearing face masks. Some thought it was a waste of time. Others were for it. I don't necessarily know how the opinions of those who thought masks were a waste of time have changed as I haven't seen the discussion pop up much, which might mean that those who thought it was a waste of time are just mute on the topic.

In late May, a couple hairstylists in Missouri tested COVID-19 positive. It was believed that they could have potentially infected over 100 clients. I responded to Dr. Eric Feigl-Ding (who was one of the first to raise the alarm about the virus) that I thought it would be interesting to see how useful face masks were.

Since face coverings were used, it'll be interesting to find out how many got infected.

— EquivalencyAxis (@EquivalencyAxis) May 25, 2020

After three weeks from that tweet, the LA Times (Jun 12) reported:

In one Missouri salon, no customers became infected with the virus despite two hairstylists being sick — and scientists believe it was because they were wearing face masks. And many countries where masking is socially routine, including Japan, have not seen an out-of-control national epidemic.

Now when I get a haircut, the barber and I are seldom face to face so perhaps that played a role in the results, but one has to believe that face masks were also useful.

Coronavirus: India

The first coronavirus cases popped up in India in late January and February via tourists from China and Italy. In an attempt to avoid the spread of the virus, the government shut down the economy that impacted 140 million migrant laborers. The world got to view videos of police beating lockdown offenders or making them do physical exercises. We also saw photos of crowded railway stations.

All those efforts may have just delayed the inevitable. Currently, per Worldometer, India has by far the most official cases in Asia. I say official as who knows how many cases really hit China. The coronavirus is now spreading across Mumbai (18.4 million) and New Delhi (21.8 million). What does the news have to say about these two cities?

Libya: Libyan National Army falling back from Tripoli

In my reports on Libya, I've always been skeptical of Khalifa Haftar's attempt to take Tripoli. It just seemed like an over-stretch by the Libyan National Army (LNA). This strategy doesn't appear to have ended well for Haftar. Reuters has the latest:

Forces loyal to Libya’s internationally recognised government took the last stronghold of eastern commander Khalifa Haftar near Tripoli on Friday and advanced further south, capping the sudden collapse of his 14-month offensive on the capital.

. . . Located in the hills southeast of Tripoli, Tarhouna had functioned as a forward base for Haftar’s assault on the capital. Its swift fall suggests his foreign supporters were less willing to sustain his offensive once Turkey intervened.

It has raised questions over Haftar’s predominant position in eastern Libya though few other figures there appear capable of holding together the coalition of forces he has assembled into the LNA.

Coronavirus: Don't Believe the Numbers out of Tanzania

Perhaps it is too easy to question Tanzania's coronavirus cases. You have a president that doesn't want to release case counts. Yet there is a problem with keeping your head in the sand. A country could end up like Brazil and have a major outbreak overwhelm their healthcare system. This overwhelmed healthcare system has also occurred in countries like Italy, but it is better to know the wave is coming versus just ignoring it all together.

Indications that the infection rate in Tanzania is far higher than reported (obviously) comes from other countries via trade routes.

BBC (May 22) reports:

The transmission of the virus across Tanzania's borders is of particular concern to its neighbours.

. . . Testing is being carried out on people travelling out of Tanzania and into Kenya, Zambia and Uganda (and in some cases being sent back if they're positive).

. . . There is a similar situation in Kenya - officials are testing lorry drivers before they are allowed into the country.

So far this month, more than 100 people arriving from Tanzania have tested positive for coronavirus and been sent back.

. . . At Ugandan border testing points, at least 15 Tanzanian lorry drivers have tested positive this month. 

George Floyd / Derek Chauvin Videos: Thoughts

The New York Times has a compilation of videos from witnesses and security cameras that paints a decent timeline of events that led to George Floyd's death. To me, the key point is that Officer Derek Chauvin has his knee on Floyd's neck for about 3 to 4 minutes after Floyd has a loss of consciousness. Based on the timeline, Floyd appears to have a loss of consciousness at 8:25 p.m. The crowd that has gathered is begging for Chauvin to lift his knee. The bystanders can obviously tell that there is a loss of consciousness. This did not cause Chauvin to change what he was doing. The ambulance arrives at 8:27 p.m. The person doing the reporting states that Chauvin keeps his knee on Floyd's neck for another minute after that. During those minutes, the police do nothing to revive Floyd.

Coronavirus: Is world hunger coming our way?

In prior blog posts, I looked at how the meat industry in the United States is being impacted by coronavirus. One interesting point is that Canada, Brazil and the US account for 65% of world meat trade. We know that US meat production is being impacted by coronavirus. And there is speculation that coronavirus cases in Brazil are being seriously undercounted. I've also mention how this could potentially impact farmers and the fruits/vegetables that come our way from these farmland. Could the impact of coronavirus cause global hunger issues?

The New York Times has this to say:

National lockdowns and social distancing measures are drying up work and incomes, and are likely to disrupt agricultural production and supply routes — leaving millions to worry how they will get enough to eat.

. . . Already, 135 million people had been facing acute food shortages, but now with the pandemic, 130 million more could go hungry in 2020, said Arif Husain, chief economist at the World Food Program, a United Nations agency. Altogether, an estimated 265 million people could be pushed to the brink of starvation by year’s end.

. . . But logistical problems in planting, harvesting and transporting food will leave poor countries exposed in the coming months, especially those reliant on imports, said Johan Swinnen, director general of the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. While the system of food distribution and retailing in rich nations is organized and automated, he said, systems in developing countries are “labor intensive,” making “these supply chains much more vulnerable to Covid-19 and social distancing regulations.”

Coronavirus: Airbnb Impact

Back on April 2nd, I was musing about the sharing economy in the world of coronavirus.

Am I the only one thinking the sharing economy is over even post-#coronavirus? Will people really want to share homes, cars, scooters?

— EquivalencyAxis (@EquivalencyAxis) April 2, 2020

Well, I finally decided to see what was being written about Airbnb. Now I have to admit I've never used Airbnb (either as a renter or property owner). So yes, I don't get the intrigue of Airbnb, but let me do a little exploration anyways.

Wired (April 22) wrote:

According to AirDNA, an online rental analytics firm, new bookings on Airbnb are down 85 per cent; cancellation rates are close to 90 per cent. Revenue generated by Airbnb’s platform in March was down 25 per cent year-on-year, wiping out $1 billion in bookings. With much of the world still on lockdown, those numbers are unlikely to pick up anytime soon.

So yeah, we're looking at down 90% in April?

. . . This was meant to be Airbnb’s year. The year when the company, which was recently valued at between $50bn and $70bn, went public. It is now worth less than $30bn. Even before coronavirus, Airbnb was struggling to turn scale into profits. The company lost $674 million last year as costs soared to $5.3bn.

. . . Data from AirDNA shows that of the 1.1 million Airbnb listings in the US, some 600,000 are from hosts that have at least two other listings.