Coronavirus: Is the virus weakening?

There is an interesting claim coming out of Italy that the virus is weakening.

Washington Post (1 Jun) reported:

Alberto Zangrillo, head of San Raffaele Hospital in Milan, roiled the global public health community on Sunday when he told RAI, the national TV station, that “the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” with patients showing minute amounts of virus in nasal swabs. Zangrillo theorized in a follow-up interview with The Washington Post that something different may be occurring “in the interaction between the virus and the human airway receptors.”

. . . Zangrillo’s clinical observations are more likely a reflection of the fact that with the peak of the outbreak long past, there is less virus in circulation, and people may be less likely to be exposed to high doses of it. In addition, only severely sick people were likely to be tested early on, compared with the situation now when even those with mild symptoms are more likely to get swabbed, experts said.


Business Insider (1 Jan) reported on the same subject:

"The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago," Zangrillo said.

"In a situation where the numbers of severe cases are falling, there may be time to start observing people with less severe symptoms — giving the impression that the virus is changing," Martin Hibberd, a professor at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, told the Italian news site The Local. 

. . . Both [Michael Ryan, the executive director of WHO's Health Emergencies Program] and [Maria van Kerkhove, the technical lead at WHO] said it was possible that the virus is now less deadly because Italians are practicing social distancing.

Though the virus was found in Italy starting around February, it really didn't pick up steam until March. So Zangrillo is saying that after three months the virus has weaken? I suppose this might be due to natural immunity or weaker mutations?

The WHO doesn't have the greatest track record right now when it comes to COVID-19, I lean towards their two experts being correct. It just doesn't seem to make sense to me that the virus has started to weaken this quickly. But also, it is a good sign that social distancing helps. Of course, what exactly is the level of social distancing that is required? Does that mean the isolation we've all been going through or might wearing masks and keeping 6 feet away from people be considered a good enough level of social distancing?

It is always possible that the doctor in Italy is onto something. We'll have to watch for evidence where:

1. Countries that saw the virus start to spread widely around March.
2. Countries where the virus continues to spread at a flatline or accelerated basis.
3. Do their CFR % start to decline dramatically.

One other thing, is that Italy is hoping to draw European tourists. There might be a reason for people in Italy to downplay the virus.